Forthcoming June 2008

"The Yellow Rain Affair: Lessons from a Discredited Allegation"

By Matthew Meselson, Director, Harvard Sussex Program on Chemical and Biological Weapons Limitation and Julian Perry Robinson

"U.S. Secretary of State Alexander Haig, in a speech in West Berlin in September 1981 and in a detailed report to the Congress the following March, charged Soviet-backed Laotian and Vietnamese forces with waging toxin warfare against Hmong resistance fighters and their villages in Laos and against Khmer Rouge soldiers and villages in Cambodia. The charges were repeated with additional details in a further report to the Congress and to the member states of the United Nations in November 1982 by Haig's successor, Secretary of State George Shultz.

The investigation on which the allegation was based, however, failed to employ reliable methods of witness interrogation or of forensic laboratory investigation; it was further marred by the dismissal and withholding of contrary evidence and a lack of independent review. When the evidence for toxin attacks or any other form of chemical/biological warfare (CBW) was subjected to more careful examination, it could not be confirmed or was discredited. In what became known as the "Yellow Rain" affair, these charges — that toxic substances called trichothecenes were used in CBW — were initially pressed vigorously by the U.S. government and, even when the allegations proved unsustainable, they were not withdrawn...."

AP Photo

May 12, 2008

"Future of Japan-US Alliance"

The Korea Times

By Joseph S. Nye, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations

"The U.S. regards a triangular Japan-China-U.S. relationship as the basis of stability in East Asia, and wants good relations between all three of its legs. But the triangle is not equilateral, because the U.S. is allied with Japan, and China need not become a threat to either country if they maintain that alliance....a wise policy combines realism with liberalism. By reinforcing their alliance, the U.S. and Japan can hedge against uncertainty while at the same time offering China integration into global institutions as a "responsible stakeholder."

AP Photo

May 5, 2008

Preventing Terrorist Attacks: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom

By Erik J. Dahl, Research Fellow, International Security Program

Why do terrorist attacks frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that warnings had been available but were either misunderstood or ignored?  Conventional wisdom, as seen in the 9/11 Commission Report, holds that disasters such as the 9/11 attacks have been caused by failures of analytical imagination, a lack of long-term strategic intelligence on the threat, and organizational limitations that prevent the U.S. intelligence community from being able to “connect the dots” of the existing intelligence. 

April 28, 2008

International Security Program "Paths to Violence" Research Workshop

The International Security Program (ISP) at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs hosted a research workshop in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on April 25, 2008. Workshop organizers Erica Chenoweth (ISP) and Adria Lawrence (ISP/Intrastate Conflict Program) brought together leading scholars to explore the conditions under which non-state actors resort to violence and the various strategies state actors use to address aggrieved populations. Workshop participants addressed issues such as why the use of violence varies among non-state actors, how the decision to use violence affects strategic outcomes of internal and international conflicts, and how states arrive at decisions to accommodate, assimilate, or ethnically cleanse minority groups. Participants received feedback on original research papers prepared in advance of the workshop. The final drafts of the papers will be compiled into an edited volume, which will be submitted for review in fall 2008.

April 2007

Service to Country: Personnel Policy and the Transformation of Western Militaries

By Curtis Gilroy and Cindy Williams

"Extraordinarily useful....The changing demographics of affluent Western societies; the near 180-degree reversal in mission focus of Western militaries after the end of the Cold War; the particular difficulties of former Communist countries trying to shed one model of military manpower recruiting, management, and structuring for another—are all treated with length and with sophistication by both academics and practitioners." — Journal of Military History

Service to Country explores the ongoing transformation of military personnel policies in Europe and North America, looking at causes as well as potential costs and benefits of personnel policy transformation.

August 2007

Reassessing Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: Competition, Congruence, and Transformation

By Amitav Acharya and Evelyn Goh

Since the 1990s, Asia-Pacific countries have changed their approaches to security cooperation and regional order. The end of the Cold War, the resurgence of China, the Asian economic crisis, and the events of September 11, 2001, have all contributed to important changes in the Asia-Pacific security architecture.

February 2007

Dealing with Dictators: Dilemmas of U.S. Diplomacy and Intelligence Analysis, 1945-1990

By Ernest R. May, Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program and Philip D. Zelikow, Former Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program

The United States continues to proclaim its support for democracy and its opposition to tyranny, but American presidents often have supported dictators who have allied themselves with the United States. This book illustrates the chronic dilemmas inherent in U.S. dealings with dictators under conditions of uncertainty and moral ambiguity.

July 2006

The Limits of Culture: Islam and Foreign Policy

By Brenda Shaffer, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program; Former Research Director, Caspian Studies Project

The contributors to The Limits of Culture find that, contrary to the currently popular view, culture is rarely more important than other factors in shaping the foreign policies of countries in the Caspian region.

Read the Foreign Affairs review.