Recent years have seen an increase in the number of "arms denial" attempts, where the acquisition of new capabilities by a given country or non-state actor has been obstructed using a variety of non-cooperative tools that are short of war. Examples include shipment interdictions on the high seas, limited military strikes, and cyber attacks. What are the root causes of this increase? What can be expected in the future? To address these questions, this research develops a formal model exploring the strategic interactions resulting from arms denial and derives theoretical and policy-oriented implications for arms races, conflict management, and regional stability.

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