The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
The radicalization of domestic Islamist groups in weak or failed states is one of the most serious international security concerns in the world today. What causes some of these groups to adopt transnational political agendas and identities, while others maintain a nationalist focus? Why do some insurgent groups seek affiliations with transnational extremists, while others abjure such ties?
This research proposes that intra-Islamist fighting within a civil-war context is an important determinant in the decision to adopt a transnational identity. To examine this hypothesis against other competing explanations, the research tracks the ideological evolution of the Islamist insurgency in Somalia from 2006–2013.
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