"Like the president he now serves, Anton doesn't understand how the global trading order actually works. Trade agreements are long and complicated today because they are no longer primarily concerned with reducing tariffs (which are already quite low). Instead, contemporary trade agreements are mostly about harmonizing labor, regulatory, environmental, and copyright standards across many different societies, precisely for the purpose of creating fairer competition between states. Agreements of this kind are very much in America's interest, because otherwise U.S. workers would have to compete with foreign industries where labor and environmental standards are much lower than they are in the United States."
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. Twelve of 16 cases in which this occurred in the past 500 years ended violently.
If Hollywood were producing a movie about China and the US on a path to war, central casting could find no better lead for Team America than Donald Trump. Is China serious about replacing the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia in the foreseeable future? Could Americans accept becoming No. 2? How will Trump’s vow to “Make America Great Again” impact this epic rivalry? Could a trade conflict or accidental collision in the South China Sea cascade into war? Is war between Washington and Beijing inevitable?
To answer these provocative questions, please join Graham Allison, Niall Ferguson, Samantha Power, and Arne Westad for a JFK Jr. Forum at 6:00 pm on March 22nd. The Forum event, held on the first floor of the Littauer Building, is entitled Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? This event is open to the public.