The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”
The Barack Obama administration came into office emphasizing the need for greater diplomatic engagement with problem states. Proponents of this approach generally argue that diplomacy is necessary, even with these regimes. Critics, however, maintain that engagement with these regimes is tantamount to appeasement and signals acceptance of behavior that ought to be condemned. In their view, there is little to be gained by talking to these states. Thus, diplomatic sanctions—or sanctions characterized by political disengagement—are seen as a low-cost means of isolating and delegitimizing regimes. Diplomatic sanctions, however, entail a number of often overlooked consequences for the United States. The potential costs of diplomatic sanctions include not only a substantial loss of information and intelligence on the target state, but also a reduction in communication capacity and a diminished ability to influence the target state. Ironically, diplomatic sanctions may even undermine the effectiveness of other coercive policy tools, such as economic sanctions. Despite the frequency of their use by the United States, diplomatic sanctions have been omitted from studies of coercion, which focus primarily on the economic and military dimensions. This seminar will present a new theory of sanctions effectiveness, which emphasizes the importance of diplomatic ties, information, and communication. This seminar will also present new quantitative and qualitative research aimed at assessing the impact of U.S. diplomatic disengagement.
Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come-first served basis.