Analysis & Opinions
Economic challenges loom in Rohani’s second term
For people aged 15-24, unemployment rose from 24% to 29% during Rohani’s first term.
Despite its flaws, the May 19 presidential election offered Iranian voters a real choice between the moderate incumbent President Hassan Rohani and a hard-line rival, Ayatollah Ebrahim Raeisi. Rohani’s decisive win with 57% of the vote, combined with a sweep by reformist candidates in the city council elections in Tehran and several other major cities, gives him a strong mandate to move forward with his programme of economic reform.
Rohani implemented two key parts of this programme during his first term: Macroeconomic stability at home and greater integration with the outside world. He brought inflation down from 35% in 2013 to less than 10% this year and stabilised Iran’s currency, which had lost two-thirds of its value in 2012. Rohani achieved a milestone in 2015 when he concluded a nuclear deal with world powers, which resulted in the removal of the UN sanctions against Iran.
Despite these gains, during the campaign, Rohani’s economic record came under heavy criticism for failing to lower unemployment and take care of the poor.
Unemployment, which had hovered in the 10-11% range for several years, increased to 12.1%. The economy added 1.5 million jobs but a rapid increase in the number of job seekers pushed up the unemployment rate, especially for people aged 15-24, whose unemployment rate rose from 24% to 29% during Rohani’s first term.
Another major weakness of his record was an increase in the poverty rate. As my own research has shown, poverty rates, which declined during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — thanks to cash handouts — increased in 2014 and 2015. There were 1 million more people considered in poverty in 2015 than in 2013. Rohani’s fourth year in office, 2016, when the economy grew 6.6% according to the International Monetary Fund, may have turned this around but the numbers for that year are not out.
Evidently most voters valued his accomplishments more, so these criticisms failed to stick. After all, the nuclear deal has been in operation only since January 2016, so giving Rohani the benefit of the doubt and four more years seemed warranted.
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For Academic Citation:
Salehi-Isfahani, Djavad.“Economic challenges loom in Rohani’s second term.” , May 28, 2017.
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Despite its flaws, the May 19 presidential election offered Iranian voters a real choice between the moderate incumbent President Hassan Rohani and a hard-line rival, Ayatollah Ebrahim Raeisi. Rohani’s decisive win with 57% of the vote, combined with a sweep by reformist candidates in the city council elections in Tehran and several other major cities, gives him a strong mandate to move forward with his programme of economic reform.
Rohani implemented two key parts of this programme during his first term: Macroeconomic stability at home and greater integration with the outside world. He brought inflation down from 35% in 2013 to less than 10% this year and stabilised Iran’s currency, which had lost two-thirds of its value in 2012. Rohani achieved a milestone in 2015 when he concluded a nuclear deal with world powers, which resulted in the removal of the UN sanctions against Iran.
Despite these gains, during the campaign, Rohani’s economic record came under heavy criticism for failing to lower unemployment and take care of the poor.
Unemployment, which had hovered in the 10-11% range for several years, increased to 12.1%. The economy added 1.5 million jobs but a rapid increase in the number of job seekers pushed up the unemployment rate, especially for people aged 15-24, whose unemployment rate rose from 24% to 29% during Rohani’s first term.
Another major weakness of his record was an increase in the poverty rate. As my own research has shown, poverty rates, which declined during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — thanks to cash handouts — increased in 2014 and 2015. There were 1 million more people considered in poverty in 2015 than in 2013. Rohani’s fourth year in office, 2016, when the economy grew 6.6% according to the International Monetary Fund, may have turned this around but the numbers for that year are not out.
Evidently most voters valued his accomplishments more, so these criticisms failed to stick. After all, the nuclear deal has been in operation only since January 2016, so giving Rohani the benefit of the doubt and four more years seemed warranted.
Want to Read More?
The full text of this publication is available via the original publication source.- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate
Is Nuclear Proliferation Back?
Journal Article - Journal of Applied History
Two Types of Applied History
Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs
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In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
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Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
David Petraeus on Strategic Leadership
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