52 Items

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Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

The Path to AI Arms Control

| Oct. 13, 2023

Today, as the world confronts the unique challenges posed by another unprecedented and in some ways even more terrifying technology—artificial intelligence—it is not surprising that many have been looking to history for instruction. Will machines with superhuman capabilities threaten humanity’s status as master of the universe? Will AI undermine nations’ monopoly on the means of mass violence? Will AI enable individuals or small groups to produce viruses capable of killing on a scale that was previously the preserve of great powers? Could AI erode the nuclear deterrents that have been a pillar of today’s world order?

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Analysis & Opinions - The Straits Times

US-China ties: Averting the grandest collision of all

| Mar. 20, 2023

If historian Thucydides were asked about what is happening in relations between the United States and China today, what would he say? That was the question posed to me at the Davos World Economic Forum in January. I responded that he would say that this is a classic Thucydidean rivalry in which the two parties are right on script, each competing to show which can best exemplify the typical rising and ruling power – leaving him on the edge of his seat anticipating the grandest collision of all time.

The American flag flies alongside a Chinese national symbol as President Donald Trump is welcomed to a summit in Beijing, November 9, 2017.

Andy Wong (AP)

Speech - Asia Society Policy Institute

The Avoidable War: Reflections on U.S.-China Relations and the End of Strategic Engagement

| January 2019

The Asia Policy Institute recently released a collection of speeches by its President and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd about the rivalry between China and the United States. In his forward to the collection, Graham Allison explains why relations between the two countries have become "the defining issue of international relations in the 21st century", and why Kevin Rudd is uniquely equipped to provide insight into them. Read on for both the full introduction and the full report.

"Within the covers of this book, long-time China watcher and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has provided an analytic snapshot that would normally only be available to the president or prime minister of a major nation. In substance, it would be the envy of the best professional intelligence agency."

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem and flags during a welcome ceremony for visiting U.S. President Donald Trump outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. November 9, 2017 (Andy Wong/Associated Press).

Andy Wong/Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - Cato Unbound

The Future of U.S.-China Relations Begins at Home

| Mar. 12, 2018

Kori Schake’s essay (and the book from which it is adapted) provides a serious, penetrating, and provocative invitation to debate the overriding geostrategic challenge of our time: what to do about the rise of China. Safe Passage is an outstanding example of the sort of work we champion at the Harvard Belfer Center’s Applied History Project. It illuminates current challenges by careful analysis of the historical record. And the case she examines in which the United States rose to rival and eventually surpass the British global hegemony is among the most instructive of the 16 cases in the Harvard Thucydides’ Trap case file for policymakers seeking to cope with the current U.S.-China competition.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, look at each other during a joint press conference at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. November 9, 2017 (Andrew Harnik/Associated Press).

Andrew Harnik/Associated Press

Analysis & Opinions - National Post

War Between China and the United States Isn't Inevitable, But It's Likely: An Excerpt From Graham Allison's "Destined for War"

| Mar. 05, 2018

Will Presidents Trump and Xi, or their successors, follow in the tragic footsteps of the leaders of Athens and Sparta or Britain and Germany? In his new Gelber Prize-nominated book, Allison says the omens are not good

China's President Xi Jinping delivers a toast at a state dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Nov. 9, 2017 (Thomas Peter/Pool Photo via AP).

Thomas Peter/Pool Photo via AP

Analysis & Opinions - New Statesman

The Chairman of Everything: Why Chinese President Xi Jinping Will Change History

| Dec. 04, 2017

Xi is now not only the most powerful leader of China since Mao. He is also the most ambitious leader of any country today. In the past five years, he has proved himself the most effective in advancing his nation’s position in the world. And among all of the competitors on the international stage, he is the most likely to leave a lasting mark on history.