571 Items

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

AP/Wong Maye-E

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

    Authors:
  • Keir A. Lieber
  • Daryl Press
| Spring 2017

For decades, nuclear deterrence has depended on the impossibility of a first strike destroying a country’s nuclear arsenal. Technological advances, however, are undermining states’ abilities to hide and protect their nuclear arsenals. These developments help explain why nuclear-armed states have continued to engage in security competition: nuclear deterrence is neither automatic nor permanent. Thus, the United States should enhance its counterforce capabilities and avoid reducing its nuclear arsenal.

Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States

AP/Andy Wong

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Would China Go Nuclear? Assessing the Risk of Chinese Nuclear Escalation in a Conventional War with the United States

    Author:
  • Caitlin Talmadge
| Spring 2017

Would China escalate to nuclear use in a conventional war with the United States? If China believed that U.S. conventional attacks on missiles, submarines, air defenses, and command and control systems threatened the survivability of its nuclear forces or that the United States was preparing a counterforce attack, it might engage in limited nuclear escalation to gain military advantage or coerce the United States. The United States will face difficult trade-offs in deciding how best to manage the risk of nuclear escalation.

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

AP/Luis Romero

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Bullets for Ballots: Electoral Participation Provisions and Enduring Peace after Civil Conflict

    Author:
  • Aila M. Matanock
| Spring 2017

What kinds of peace agreements are most likely to prevent civil conflicts from recurring? Does holding elections after a civil war make enduring peace more likely? Agreements mandating that rebels be allowed to participate in post-conflict elections alongside the government are more likely to succeed, because such elections attract the engagement of international organizations that can reward compliance with the agreement and punish noncompliance.

The Illusion of International Prestige

Wellcome Library, London.

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

The Illusion of International Prestige

    Author:
  • Jonathan Mercer
| Spring 2017

Most policymakers and international relations scholars believe that prestige enhances states’ authority and that states therefore seek prestige. This belief is wrong. Policymakers rely on their feelings of pride and shame about their state to evaluate its prestige rather than analyzing other states’ views. Further, policymakers discount other states’ prestige. States should therefore avoid costly policies designed to enhance their prestige. Evidence from the South African (Boer) War supports these findings.

Ethnic Cleansing and Its Alternatives in Wartime: A Comparison of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires

George Grantham Bain Collection (Library of Congress).

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Ethnic Cleansing and Its Alternatives in Wartime: A Comparison of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires

| Spring 2017

When do states carry out mass violence against minority ethnic groups collaborating with adversaries during wartime? A comparison of the policies of the Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, and Russian Empires during World War I shows that states with influential political organizations reflecting non-ethnic social divisions are less likely to pursue mass killings of ethnic minority collaborators. This factor may also help prevent mass killing in contemporary ethnic conflicts.

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Correspondence: How Good Are China’s Antiaccess/ Area-Denial Capabilities

| Spring 2017

Andrew S. Erickson; Evan Braden Montgomery; and Craig Neuman respond to Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich's Summer 2016 article, "Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Antiaccess/Area Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia."

Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing

    Author:
  • Alastair Iain Johnston
| Winter 2016/17

Many commentators claim that rising nationalism in China has pushed the Chinese leadership toward aggressive foreign policy stances. Responses to the Beijing Area Study survey from 1998 to 2015, however, suggest that popular nationalism is not increasing. China’s more bellicose behaviors can be better explained by factors such as elite opinion, leaders’ preferences, security dilemma dynamics, and organizational interests.

What Is the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance? Conceptions, Causes, and Assessment

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

What Is the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance? Conceptions, Causes, and Assessment

    Author:
  • Rebecca Slayton
| Winter 2016/17

Does cyberspace favor the offense, as many analysts and policymakers claim? Three factors undermine any cyber offensive advantage, as demonstrated in a cost-benefit analysis of the Stuxnet operation against Iran. First, any measurement of the offense-defense balance must consider a cyber operation’s value as well as its cost to both sides. Second, organizational capabilities play a significant role in determining the balance. Third, offensive advantages decline when attackers target physical infrastructure rather than information networks.