U.S. transportation policy is changing rapidly, motivated by concerns over climate change and energy security. Not only are economy-wide CO2 prices expected to soon be in place, but increasingly stringent performance-based standards are being proposed. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group has analyzed the impact of economy-wide CO2 prices in combination with transportation sector specific policy options including transportation (fuel) taxes, extended fuel economy standards, and performance-based tax credits. The results suggest that the policy options currently considered will fail to meet the "17% of 2005" GHG emissions reduction target in the Waxman-Markey Bill, or even the Obama administration's "14% of 2005" GHG emissions target. Economy-wide CO2 prices motivate large reductions in CO2 emissions from the electrical power sector but do not, on their own, result in significant reductions in CO2 emissions from transportation. Transportation taxes appear to be the most effective option for reducing GHG emissions, largely because they reduce vehicle use in addition to improving vehicle technology. On the other hand, tax credits for alternative-fuel vehicles appear to be an expensive and ineffective path to reducing CO2 emissions from transportation.

Beverages will be provided. Please come ready to discuss...

This seminar will discuss two aspects of systems modeling of the automotive market. First, approaches for modeling imperfectly- competitive firm behavior with empirically-relevant vehicle demand models will be discussed. Second, understanding the fuel price - vehicle use relationship is a key issue for Greenhouse Gas policy. We will review what is really known about this relationship, and whether the body of knowledge is suitable for supporting policy to reduce vehicle use.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come-first served basis.