THE YEAR before he died in 2017, one of America’s leading twentieth-century strategic thinkers, Zbigniew Brzezinski, sounded an alarm. In analyzing threats to American security, “the most dangerous scenario,” he warned, would be “a grand coalition of China and Russia…united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.” This coalition “would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this time China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower.”

When President Trump demanded that China cut its $375 billion trade deficit with the U.S. by $200 billion, Chinese officials and the U.S. press shrieked. It seemed impossible. However, there's a simple way for China to give Trump this “win”: buying $200 billion worth of American oil, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Alaska, Texas and Louisiana.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500 years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge, painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the challenger but also the challenged.

"The strategic partnership between Harvard and China is unique among universities of the world," writes Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, "this relationship is reflected in decades of scholarship in Cambridge, tens of thousands of Chinese graduates of Harvard graduate and executive programs, and the policies of both governments that have brought us to this point."

The Belfer Center hosted a half-day conference on March 23, 2017, gathering a group of top-level American and Japanese academics to discuss the US-Japan alliance and the rise of China. The event was well attended by scholars and students of Harvard and nearby universities, including a large group of scholars from the US Naval War College. Other notable attendees included policy officials as well as members of the Japanese Consulate in Boston.