This report, based on three prolonged trips to the Kingdom over the past year, the most recent in January 2019, will take a deep look at Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who dominates every aspect of foreign and domestic policy, to try to answer what lies behind his Mona Lisa smile. It will also examine the Kingdom’s social progress, its economic stagnation and its growing political repression. Readers will have to evaluate for themselves whether the social progress he has offered Saudis in general—and women in particular—offset his autocratic tactics at home and abroad.

Saudi Arabia is like an obese man disfigured from decades of gluttony and idleness. Dieting is painful given his body’s cravings. Even the small exertion of walking is more unpleasant. And the inability to imagine that his sacrifice and suffering eventually will lead to good health makes it easy to revert to old habits. If, however, he will just push through the pain, good health and a better life are attainable.

This report explores significant generational changes in the Al Saud ruling family, domestic challenges to Saudi stability, regional threats to the Kingdom and the future of its now troubled relationship with its U.S. protector.