The most important problem that a bilateral deal between the United States and China needs to resolve is Chinese theft of US firms’ technology. Unless the Chinese agree to stop stealing technology, and the two sides devise a way to enforce that agreement, the US will not have achieved anything useful from Trump's tariffs.

The current conflict between the United States and China is not a trade war. Although the US has a large trade deficit with China, that is not the reason why it is imposing high tariffs on imports from China and threatening to increase them further after the end of the current 90-day truce on March 1. The purpose of those tariffs is to induce China to end its policy of stealing US technology.

Some observers worry that higher short-term rates will push the economy into recession and wonder why the Fed is continuing to raise rates despite already having achieved its explicit monetary-policy goals. Yet that view overlooks the role that higher interest rates today must play in enabling the recovery from an inevitable future downturn. It is in the interest of the next recovery, I believe, that the Fed will continue its steady rate increases.

Ten years after the Great Recession’s onset, another long, deep downturn may soon roil the U.S. economy.

August 22 marked the longest period of rising share prices in US history. But the stock market's nine-year bull run won't last much longer, as three factors drive up long-term interest rates, reducing the present value of future corporate profits and providing investors with an alternative to equities.

Once upon a time, US policymakers believed that more consumer spending was better than higher saving. But even though officials have come to realize that a high level of saving means more investment and faster growth, legislation to encourage more personal saving has failed to reverse a sharply downward trend.

The day is coming, experts tell us, when artificial intelligence and robotics will massively disrupt the labor market. Autonomous vehicles will put 3.5 million truck drivers at risk of losing their jobs. Checkout machines may replace 3.4 million retail cashiers. That is only the beginning of the long list of jobs that will be destroyed by technological change.

The federal government’s debt has risen from less than 40% of GDP a decade ago to 78% now, and the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the ratio will rise to 96% in 2028. While many blame the tax cuts enacted last year, the real reason lies elsewhere.

Long-term interest rates in the United States are rising, and are likely to continue heading up. Over the past 20 months, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has more than doubled, from 1.38% to 2.94%. Why is this happening?

The US economy has experienced nine recessions during the last 50 years. What makes the current situation unusual and more worrying than in the past is the low level of short-term interest rates and the high (and rising) level of federal debt, which will limit policymakers' ability to provide the stimulus needed to counter a recession.