Russia in Review

Russia in Review: a digest of useful news from U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism for May 6-13, 2016

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda.

Nuclear security:

·The amended Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material came into force on May 8th. “Entry into force will reduce the risk of a terrorist attack involving nuclear material, which would have catastrophic consequences. The world will be a safer place as a result,” IAEA General Director Yukiya Amano said. The entry into force of the amended conventionpresents significant progress for global security, the US State Department said (RBTH, 05.08.16, Sputnik, 05.09.16).

·IAEA is the most suitable platform for the international exchange of practices on issues of safeguarding nuclear material and facilities, Vladimir Voronkov, Russia's permanent envoy to the IAEA said. (Sputnik, 05.08.16.)

·U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter hosted a ceremony commemorating the 25th anniversary of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program in the Pentagon auditorium on May 9. Former U.S. Senators Sam Nunn and Richard Lugar were guests of honor. "The Cold War -- and even the post-Cold Era -- is history," said Secretary Carter, "but the threat of unsecured and loose weapons of mass destruction endures.” “We have all sorts of problems with Russia,” former senator Sam Nunn said at the ceremony. “We have the Ukrainian problem, we have the Middle East, we have a lot of differences, but we still have 90 percent of the nuclear weapons, 90 percent of the nuclear materials and the know how to try to prevent catastrophe.” “We’ve got to build a bridge to work with the Russians on this subject, even when we’re disagreeing with them profoundly on other things,” he said.( (Marketwired, 05.09.16,DOD News, 05.10.16).

“U.S. and Russia should work closely together, including cooperation in intelligence about terror groups, to ensure that a terror group never obtains enough material to destroy one of their cities,” ex- Secretary of Defense William J. Perryand Governor of California Jerry Brown wrote. (Huffington Post, 05.12.16).

·The United States’ Embassy in Dushanbe and Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration, the United Kingdom’s Department of Energy and Climate Change, and the Government of Tajikistan dedicated two facilities for the secure storage of radiological materials at the State Institution Radioactive Waste Disposal Site in Tajikistan on May 11. (Asia Plus, 05.13.16).

Iran’s nuclear program and related issues:

·Iran’s defense minister on Tuesday announced the delivery of a powerful S-300 air-defense missile system from Russia. Elizabeth Trudeau, a spokeswoman for the State Department, said that the United States objects to the sale of such sophisticated equipment as the S-300 but that it does not violate either the nuclear deal or U.N. Security Council resolutions.(Washington Post, 05.10.16).

Military issues, including NATO-Russia relations:

·“Russia is open to join forces with all countries and is ready to work on the creation of a modern, non-aligned system of international security,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said on May 9th. (Russia Today, 05.09.16).

·“We will continue to build on our capability to deter a potential adversary like Russia,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said. (DOD.gov, 05.03.16).

·The U.S. must modernize its nuclear force to remain on-par with near-peer adversaries Russia and China, a top Air Force general said Friday. “Just last week [Russia] had another successful hypersonic glide vehicle test,” Lt. Gen. Stephen “Seve” Wilson said. (Air Force Times, 05.06.16).

·NATO’s nuclear policy needs further thought in view of a large number of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, but there will not be enough time before the summit to reach a consensus, a senior Polish official said. On a new relationship with Russia, NATO leaders will seek a consensus between two contrasting views: those afraid of Russia under President Vladimir Putin and those “ready to cooperate … however bad Putin is,” the official said. (Defense News, 05.11.16).

·Germany will increase the size of its armed forces for the first time since the end of the Cold War. The move will add some 11,400 military and civilian personnel to the forces on top of a current upper limit of 241,000. Some 7,000 additional military personnel to be added by 2023 will include cyberwarfare experts, army and navy Special Forces and medical teams. (Wall Street Journal, 05.11.16).

·The U.K. scrambled Typhoon fighter jets Thursday to intercept three Russian military transport aircraft that were approaching the Baltic States and were not transmitting an identification code and refused to answer attempts to radio them. (Foreign Policy, 05.13.16).

Missile defense and nuclear arms control:

·The U.S. officially activated a new advanced radar system in Romania on Thursday and Poland broke ground on the northern wing of the anti-ballistic missile shield Friday. In addition to the radar system in Romania and another to be constructed in Poland, the European missile defense includes NATO's command and control center at the Ramstein air base in Germany and Spain-based American warships carrying interceptor missiles. Western allies said Russia was using the activation of the base as an excuse to complain about the alliance. Robert Work, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary, said the system wasn't supposed to deter Russia. “If we take actions to deter Russia, we say that is what we are doing," he said. “This is not about Russia." (Wall Street Journal, 05.12.16, Bloomberg, 05.13.16).

·The deployment of the U.S. missile defense elements in Romania is “ an obvious violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, because launchers, which will be deployed after a radar station is put into operation in Romania, launchers will be deployed in Poland, and they can be used to station shorter- and intermediate-range missiles, " Vladimir Putin said. “And of course, we will undertake whatever is necessary on our part to ensure and preserve this strategic balance of forces, which is the most reliable guarantor against large-scale military conflicts,” he said. Moscow said the system was part of a policy of containing Russia militarily and politically. “We are convinced unconditionally that the deployment of an antimissile defense system does indeed pose a threat to the security of the Russian Federation," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Mikhail Ulyanov, the head of the Russian foreign ministry's arms control department, said the shield would undermine “strategic stability" in Europe. (Wall Street Journal, 05.12.16, Interfax, 05.13.16).

Counter-terrorism:

·In his May 9th speech Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was open to working with other nations to combat what he called the “global threat” of terrorism.” (New York Times, 05.09.16).

·A Russian request to add two Syrian rebel groups to a United Nations terror blacklist was rejected by Britain, France, the United States, and Ukraine. (RFE/RL, 05.11.16).

·Six police officers were wounded in a suicide bombing Chechnya. (NDTV, 05.09.16).

·A suspected member of a militant group linked to Al-Qaeda has been jailed in Russia's Urals city of Magnitogorsk. Investigators said that the convicted man, whose name was not disclosed, is originally from Central Asia and fought for several months alongside Islamic State militants in Syria.(RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

·Moscow authorities have detained a man from Russia's Tatarstan region on suspicion of recruiting fighters for the Islamic State extremist group in Syria and Iraq.(RFE/RL, 05.10.16).

·From the Dagestani village of Berikey, which has a population of 3,000, some 28 people left for areas of the Middle East controlled by Islamic State, according to a local police officer. He said 19 of the 28 were listed in Russia as radicals. (Reuters, 05.13.16).

·On May 13, Kazakhstan’s Qaraghandy Region's Specialized Inter-District Court found Valery Khadykin and Quanysh Zhumaghaliev guilty of propagating terrorism, inciting religious discord, and recruiting militants for the Islamic State militant group in Syria. (RFE/RL, 05.13.16).

·Tajik authorities say they have detained four suspected supporters of the Islamic State extremist group who were allegedly planning to carry out terrorist attacks on May 9. (RFE/RL, 05.09.16).

·An Uzbek citizen has become the sixth individual to be charged by the United States in a conspiracy to support the Islamic State extremist group. U.S. prosecutors said on May 11 that they arrested Azizjon Rakhmatov, 28, and charged him with conspiracy in an indictment filed in federal court in Brooklyn, New York. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

Cyber security:

·Germany's domestic intelligence agency has accused Russia of being behind a series of cyber attacks on German state computer systems. (BBC, 05.13.16).

·Federal authorities in Pittsburgh say two men have been charged by authorities in Belarus with receiving $1.35 million stolen in a phishing scheme from the bank account of a Pennsylvania oil and gas drilling company. (RFE/RL, 05.07.16).

Energy exports from CIS:

·China National Petroleum Corp will start laying a second domestic oil pipeline in June to allow for increased Russian crude supplies to China. Russia’s Transneft will be ready to ship 30 million tons of oil a year to China through the link by Jan. 1, 2018. (Bloomberg, 05.12.16).

·The CASA-1000 power project has been inaugurated by officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The CASA-1000 involves building a 1,222-kilometer power-transmission line to carry some 1,300 megawatts of electricity from hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan into Afghanistan and on to Peshawar in Pakistan. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

·Internal differences are killing OPEC and its ability to influence the markets has all but evaporated, top Russian oil executive Igor Sechin told Reuters in some of his harshest remarks ever about the oil cartel. (Reuters, 05.10.16).

Bilateral economic ties:

·No significant developments.

Other bilateral issues:

·The United States deeply respects the memory of the Soviet people who gave their lives in fighting Nazism during WWII, U.S. Ambassador John Tefft said. (Interfax, 05.06.16).

·Two U.S. congressmen have introduced legislation aimed to establish government strategy aimed at combating “foreign disinformation campaigns” they say are being waged by Russia and China. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

II. Russia news.

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

·The yield on Russia’s local currency government notes known as OFZs due in 10 years declined by six basis points to 8.82 percent, the lowest since July 16, 2014, when the U.S. barred some of Russia’s biggest companies from foreign capital markets over the country’s alleged role stoking the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Stocks and the ruble also advanced. (Bloomberg, 05.12.16).

·The EBRD affirmed its forecast for a 1.2 percent decline in Russia’s GDP this year. (Bloomberg, 05.12.16).

·Russia’s Bilibin nuclear power plant will to close its No 1 reactor in two years, with its remaining three to follow by 2021 to make way for power production from the country’s first floating nuclear plant, the nuclear station reported. (Bellona, 05.09.16).

·Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the launch of a fourth and final line supplying electricity from Russia to Crimea on Wednesday, saying the project had broken an energy blockage he accused Kiev of imposing on the peninsula. (Reuters, 05.11.16).

·Russian President Vladimir Putin led a public procession in Moscow dedicated to the "Immortal Regiments" — an annual homage to the generation that lost more than 20 million people in the fight against Nazi. Also Putin and his Kazakh counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev paid tribute to the fallen soldiers by laying wreaths at the Eternal Flame. (Moscow Times, Interfax, 05.09.16).

·Research from migration organization the Civic Assistance Committee shows that more than 513,000 deportation orders have been passed by the Russian courts since 2013. (Moscow Times, 05.10.16).

·A global team of investigative reporters on May 9 opened access to the full database of offshore entities, drawn from the earlier Offshore Leaks investigation and the so-called Panama Papers. The database contains information about 320,000 offshore companies around the world and includes 11,516 offshore firms and 6,285 people connected with Russia.(AP, Moscow Times, 05.10.16)

·The Kremlin has rejected claims made by a former anti-doping official that dozens of Russian athletes were part of a large-scale, state-run doping program. Grigory Rodchenkov, the ex-director of Russia's anti-doping agency RUSADA, told The New York Times on May 12 that he helped provide banned substances to athletes and replace drug-tainted testing samples with clean ones during the Sochi Olympics.(RFE/RL, 05.13.16).

·Independent Russian media company RosBusinessConsulting has been accused of defrauding shareholders of one million rubles and its top three editors resigned due to what RBC's Director-General Nikolai Molibog described as“absence of common viewpoints regarding the company's future." (RFE/RL, 05.13.16, Moscow Times, 05.12.16).

Defense and Aerospace:

·Russia is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles specifically designed to penetrate U.S. missile defense systems, Russian Commander of Strategic Missile Forces Colonel-General Sergei Karakayev said. “By late 2021, the Yars missile system will make up about half of the SMF effective combat strength,” according to the colonel-general. RS-24 Yars ICBMs will be deployed in Tatishchevo as well as in Kozelsk, according to Karakayev. Karakayev also confirmed that the new Sarmat missile will be deployed "with the Uzhur missile division and in the Dombarovsky deployment area. (Diplomat, 05.11.16,Russianforces.org, 05.09.16).

·Russian press quotes a source in the defense ministry as saying that deployment of the RS-26 Rubezh missile is postponed until 2017. (Russianforces.org, 05.12.16).

·Russia has been testing a new hypersonic glide vehicle, the YU-71, a warhead capable of accelerating to up to ten times the speed of sound descending from the atmosphere on an erratic flight path without following a predictable ballistic trajectory. (Diplomat, 05.11.16).

·The Russian Air Force will start operational testing of a new indigenous targeting pod before the end of the year.(National Interest, 05.11.16).

·The Russian Airborne Forces are set to form six armored companies equipped with newly modified T-72B3M tanks in the second half of 2016. (National Interest, 05.12.16).

·A satellite sent into orbit during the maiden launch at Russia's new spaceport in the Far East is not functioning. (RFE/RL, 05.13.16).

·Russian armed forces have paraded in central Moscow to mark the 71st anniversary of the victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The May 9 parade on Red Square featured some 10,000 army staff, about 150 vehicles, and nuclear missile systems. Dozens of aircraft also performed a flyby. A smaller version of Moscow's massive Victory Day parade, held on Red Square, took place on Russia's Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Syria. (RFE/RL, Moscow Times, 05.09.16).

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

·The Russian government has approved an amendment to the country's anti-terrorism law that suggests, among other measures, the introduction of additional restrictions for Russians suspected of committing extremist crimes. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

·Interpol has removed former head of the Bank of Moscow Andrei Borodin from their wanted list. (Moscow Times, 05.13.16).

·British police seized cheques for $22 million related to a suspected Russian organized crime scam that used the London futures market to launder cash through two Russian companies, a Swiss firm and a British Virgin Islands investment group. (Reuters, 05.11.16);

·Russia-backed Crimean authorities have detained four Crimean Tatars on suspicion of being members of an Islamic group that is banned in Russia. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

·Russia's Federal Security Service has said that Estonian resident Arsen Mardaleishvili, who was gathering classified military information about the Russian Armed Forces on orders from Estonian police, has been detained in St. Petersburg. (Interfax, 05.13.16).

Foreign affairs and trade:

·Syria:

oThe situation in Syria remains complicated, but Russia hopes that its cooperation with the United States will lead to fundamental changes in this country, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday. The United States and Russia issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to a truce and pledged to use their influence with the warring parties to urge them to refrain from provocations and to stop firing. The United States said Monday that a new agreement with Russia would replace localized, piecemeal cease-fires in Syria with a revived, nationwide truce. (Boston Globe, 05.09.16, Reuters, 05.10.16,Washington Post, 05.10.16).

oPresident Vladimir Putin says Russia has achieved "a turning point” in the fight against terrorist groups in Syria thanks to the "efficiency and high quality" of its weapons.Russian warplanes had flown more than 10,000 combat missions since Russia's air campaign in Syria began in September, he said.(RFE/RL, 05.10.16).

oRussian serviceman Anton Yerygin has died in hospital after receiving serious injuries in the Syrian province of Homs. (Moscow Times, 05.12.16).

oSyria’s opposition says Russia has created a new military base in the ancient city of Palmyra after a combined Syrian-Russian offensive ousted the Islamic State from the city in late March. The Jerusalem Post reports that the Syrian Revolution Coordinator group posted that Russia now has a base “in the archeological compound of the city.” (Foreign Policy, 05.08.16).

·Other countries:

oJapanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believes his three-hour talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin achieved a "breakthrough" in solving their dispute over the Kurile Islands.(RFE/RL, 05.07.16).

oA Turkish court has ruled there is insufficient evidence to prosecute Alparslan Celik suspected of killing a Russian pilot. Russia's agriculture watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor plans to ban all vegetables and fruit imports from Turkey next week. (Moscow Times, 05.12.16, Moscow Times, 05.10.16).

oRussia gave a red-carpet reception to five Cuban spies who served long prison terms in the United States, hailing them on Tuesday as heroes "of fortitude and resistance" and stressing its own role in securing their release. (Reuters, 05.10.16).

oTim and Alex Foley, the sons of two Russian spies arrested in the U.S. in 2010, say they had no idea that their parents were living a lie on behalf of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service.Tim and Alex, now living in Asia and Europe, are petitioning Canada to return their citizenship. (Foreign Policy, 05.08.16).

Russia's neighbors:

·Ukraine:

oGermany's top diplomat said he will push for a deal on holding local elections in eastern Ukraine before the European Union's sanctions against Russia expire at the end of July. Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said progress on implementing a cease-fire agreement forged in Minsk last year and resolving political issues such as the elections has been proceeding like "a snail that's moving forward by the millimeter, at best." Steinmeier struck a pessimistic tone Wednesday in Berlin as he hosted his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, Ukraine’s Pavlo Klimkin and France’s Jean-March Ayrault. (Bloomberg, 05.11.16, RFE/RL, 05.11.16).

oA group of Ukrainian hackers has published the names and contact information of thousands of journalists who have reported from rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine, raising concerns about the safety of the journalists, including many from international media organizations. (Washington Post, 05.13.16).

oA court in Ukraine has sentenced a blogger to prison who had urged conscientious objectors not to fight against Russia-backed separatists in the country’s east. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

oThe lawyer for two Russian soldiers jailed in Ukraine says that a proposed swap between the pair and Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko may not happen (Moscow Times, 05.11.16).

oUkraine’s economy will expand 2 percent in 2016 after contracting about 10 percent last year, and having plunged in dollar terms by half to $90 billion between 2013 and 2015, the EBRD predicted.  (Bloomberg, 05.12.16).

o''If Ukraine has any hope at all, it is agriculture,'' said Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist for former Soviet states with Citi. ''But the fact that they've used up most annual quotas already suggests this agreement (with EU) is not having the desired effect.'' (New York Times, 05.10.16).

o''We're like China,'' said Vasyl Ryabych, a Ukrainian plant director, said, ''but on the border with Europe.'' (New York Times, 05.10.16).

oUkraine is one of the Northern Hemisphere's poorest countries, with an economy that generates less than $3,100 a year per person. (New York Times, 05.10.16).

oUkraine's resistance to allow civil society experts to play a role in establishing the anti-corruption bureau remains “a major source of contention,” the International Monetary Fund said in a staff discussion note published Wednesday. At the same time, Mahmood Pradhan, deputy head of the IMF's European department, said early signs coming from Ukraine's new government are "very encouraging.” (RFE/RL, 05.06.16, Moscow Times, 05.12.16).

oFor every dollar of aid that flows into Ukraine, $6.25 illicitly flows out, according to OECD & Global Financial Integrity. (Washington Post, 05.02.16).

oSerhiy Zaitsev, deputy director of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's confectionery empire is a beneficiary of the Intraco company registered in the British Virgin Islands (BVI), according to the Panama Papers.Zaitsev described the accusations of trading with Gazprom to be manipulation. (Reuters, Interfax, 05.11.16).

oA novel petition submitted to the Ukrainian government website proposes cutting the peninsula off from the mainland by digging a canal. (Kommersant, 05.11.16).

oUkraine’s parliament has approved Yuriy Lutsenko, close ally of President Petro Poroshenko, to become the country's new prosecutor-general. (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

·Other neighbors:

oArmenia and Azerbaijan have been accusing each other of violating their cessation of fire agreement by shelling each other's military positions in their border area. (RFE/RL, 05.07.16).

oRussia has criticized joint military exercises involving the United States and Georgia. Russia's Foreign Ministry said on May 6 that the military drills were a provocative step that could destabilize the Caucasus region. (RFE/RL, 05.06.16).

oThe EBRD released new economic forecasts, with the biggest change coming for Azerbaijan. Gross domestic product in the ex-Soviet Union’s third-biggest oil producer will shrink 3 percent this year, compared with a previous projection for growth of 2.5 percent. (Bloomberg, 05.12.16).

oThe European Union has expressed concern after news that Belarus, the only country in Europe still to apply capital punishment, had executed another prisoner. (RFE/RL, 05.07.16).

oKyrgyz authorities say they have detained and charged three leading members of the People's Parliament movement. The State Committee for National Security said on May 12 that the three suspects had been charged with plotting to “forcibly overthrow the government." (RFE/RL, 05.12.16).

oKyrgyz prosecutors say a prison guard was involved in the high-profile jail break by convicted Islamist militants last year. (RFE/RL, 05.10.16).

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