Book - Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war.
In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.
About This Book
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
For more information on this publication:
Belfer Communications Office
For Academic Citation:
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017. 384.
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Journal Article
- International Security
A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security
Journal Article
- International Security
We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe
Analysis & Opinions
- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
To Enhance National Security, the Biden Administration Will Have to Trim an Exorbitant Defense Wish List
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Report
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and UiT The Arctic University of Norway
Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond
Paper
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Attacking Artificial Intelligence: AI’s Security Vulnerability and What Policymakers Can Do About It
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. The reason is Thucydides’s Trap, a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one. This phenomenon is as old as history itself. About the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” Over the past 500 years, these conditions have occurred sixteen times. War broke out in twelve of them. Today, as an unstoppable China approaches an immovable America and both Xi Jinping and Donald Trump promise to make their countries “great again,” the seventeenth case looks grim. Unless China is willing to scale back its ambitions or Washington can accept becoming number two in the Pacific, a trade conflict, cyberattack, or accident at sea could soon escalate into all-out war.
In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.
About This Book
- Recommended
- In the Spotlight
- Most Viewed
Recommended
Journal Article - International Security
A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security
Journal Article - International Security
We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe
Analysis & Opinions - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
To Enhance National Security, the Biden Administration Will Have to Trim an Exorbitant Defense Wish List
In the Spotlight
Most Viewed
Report - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and UiT The Arctic University of Norway
Arctic Climate Science: A Way Forward for Cooperation through the Arctic Council and Beyond
Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
Attacking Artificial Intelligence: AI’s Security Vulnerability and What Policymakers Can Do About It