CAUCASUS
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Identities, Interests and the Resolution of the Abkhaz Conflict"
Journal Article, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, issue 3, volume 2
By Ondrej Ditrych, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
"The recent crisis in Abkhazia reveals a fundamental qualitative change in the conflict in which the balance among three main actors is shifting, and increasingly the conflict plays a more important role in the triangular relations between Georgia, Russia and the West. The search for a new equilibrium in the conflict, one that would be an optimal outcome for the actors involved, will require rethinking the mutually constitutive roles (identities) and interests they want to assume with respect to the conflict and the entire South Caucasus...."
Michael Bronner
August 16, 2008
"When the War Ends, Start to Worry"
Op-Ed, New York Times
"EVEN as Russia and Georgia continue their on-again, off-again struggle over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a frenzied tea-leaf reading about the war's global political ramifications has broken out across airwaves and think-tank forums. But as the situation on the ground recedes inevitably to some new form of the pernicious "frozen conflict" that has plagued the region since Georgia's civil wars of the early 1990s, few are paying attention to a less portentous but equally critical international threat: an increase in the longstanding, rampant criminality in the conflict zones that is likely to further destabilize the entire Caucasus region and at worst provide terrorist groups with the nuclear material they have long craved."
July/August 2008
"Separatism's Final Country"
Journal Article, Foreign Affairs, issue 4, volume 87
By Richard N. Rosecrance, Adjunct Professor; Senior Fellow, International Security Program and Arthur A. Stein
"Muller argues that ethnonationalism is the wave of the future and will result in more and more independent states, but this is not likely. One of the most destabilizing ideas throughout human history has been that every separately defined cultural unit should have its own state. Endless disruption and political introversion would follow an attempt to realize such a goal. Woodrow Wilson gave an impetus to further state creation when he argued for "national self-determination" as a means of preventing more nationalist conflict, which he believed was a cause of World War I...."
December 2007
"On Classifying Terrorism: A Potential Contribution of Cluster Analysis for Academics and Policymakers"
Journal Article, Defense and Security Analysis, issue 4, volume 23
By Erica Chenoweth, Associate, International Security Program and Elizabeth Lowham
The authors argue that classifying terrorist groups based on their motivations (i.e. Islamic, nationalist-separatist, left-wing, etc) causes analysts to ignore important similarities between such groups. This article suggests using cluster analysis to classify terrorist groups based on their motives and their tactics. Using the U.S. State Department's list of Significant Terrorist Incidents through 2003, the authors demonstrate that trends in terrorist attacks among groups with seemingly disparate motives and locations provide insights into dynamic nature of terrorism over the past several decades. Specifically, certain terrorist incidents in places as diverse as Lebanon, Georgia, and Colombia have more in common than is typically suspected, suggesting that such groups monitor and learn from one another's activities.
November 2007
"Energy Supply and Demand in Eurasia: Cooperation between EU and Iran"
Journal Article, China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, issue 4, volume 5
By Abbas Maleki, Former Senior Research Associate, International Security Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, 2006-2008; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom, 2005-2006
Energy diversification has emerged as one of the most important priorities for a majority of the European countries and the EU. Growing energy demand in Europe combined with a high reliance on Russia as an energy producer have led the EU to look to the Caspian Sea region for alternative energy resources, especially in natural gas. Iran has the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world and could assist Europe in diversifying supplies. This article argues that there is substantial potential for energy cooperation between Iran and the European countries, particularly Turkey. Increased Iranian participation in the Eurasian energy market, both as consumer and producer, could lead to other benefits including economic development and more efficient energy extraction.
Summer-Fall 2007
"The Virtues and Vices of Fixed Territorial Ownership"
Journal Article, The SAIS Review of International Affairs, issue 2, volume XXVII
By Boaz Atzili, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008
Today, territorial ownership of states is essentially fixed, in marked contrast to earlier periods in history. This change has affected states in two very different ways. In regions in which most states are socio-politically strong, fixed territorial ownership is a blessing. It enhances peace, stability, and cooperation between states. In regions in which most states are socio-politically weak, however, fixed territorial ownership is largely a curse. It perpetuates and exacerbates states' weakness, and contributes to internal conflicts that often spill overacross international borders.
July 20, 2007
"My Uncle 'Keri' and the Immigration Debate"
Op-Ed, Lowell Sun
By Gregory Aftandilian, Former Research Fellow, Dubai Initiative/International Security Program 2006-2007
Gregory Aftandilian reflects on his own family's history and the current debate on immigration.
2007
Iran
Book Chapter
By Abbas Maleki, Former Senior Research Associate, International Security Program/Energy Technology Innovation Policy Research Group, 2006-2008; Former Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom, 2005-2006
Iran has not acted as a dragon breathing ideological fire across the region, but rather as a traditional entrepreneur and reliable trader.
June 2007
"The Myth of the Borderless World: Refugees and Repatriation Policy"
Journal Article, Conflict Management and Peace Science, issue 2, volume 24
By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy
This essay explores the impact of the end of the Cold War on the counter-refugee-crisis policies of the United Nations and its strongest member states.
2007
The New Silk Roads: Transport and Trade in Greater Central Asia
Book
This book, with contributions by eminent scholars from sixteen countries, reviews the state of the links of transport and trade that are bringing about this fundamental change on the world’s largest continent.
