Articles

1858 Items

Journal Article - Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability

Sociotechnical Systems and Sustainability: Current and Future Perspectives for Inclusive Development

| February 2017

Sociotechnical systems — for example, telecommunication networks, electric grids, large-scale manufacturing systems — are interacting ensembles of engineered artifacts embedded in society, linked with economies, and connected with ecology. Such systems have been analyzed through the lenses of sustainability (largely along the dimensions of environmental protection and affordability), carrying influence in the literatures of technology innovation, product design, infrastructure planning, and service delivery. Sustainability concerns along the environmental and financial dimensions have motivated focus on waste and emissions reduction, new technology development, and greening of industrial ecosystems. The concept of inclusive development, however, has not yet permeated the research or conceptualization of sociotechnical systems.

Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Is Chinese Nationalism Rising? Evidence from Beijing

    Author:
  • Alastair Iain Johnston
| Winter 2016/17

Many commentators claim that rising nationalism in China has pushed the Chinese leadership toward aggressive foreign policy stances. Responses to the Beijing Area Study survey from 1998 to 2015, however, suggest that popular nationalism is not increasing. China’s more bellicose behaviors can be better explained by factors such as elite opinion, leaders’ preferences, security dilemma dynamics, and organizational interests.

Trump Salute

Le Point

Magazine Article - Le Point

Burns : « Il renie soixante-dix and de diplomatie » (Burns: "He rejects seventy years of diplomacy")

| Feb. 02, 2017

In an interview with Amin Arefi of French magazine Le Point, Ambassador (ret.) Nicholas Burns reflects on the first ten days of the Trump administration and the trajectory of American foreign policy going forward. Burns explains the fundamental differences between Donald Trump and George W. Bush, and the  worrying implications of Trump's indifference towards the US-backed system of alliances that has upheld the liberal world order for the past seven decades.   

What Is the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance? Conceptions, Causes, and Assessment

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

What Is the Cyber Offense-Defense Balance? Conceptions, Causes, and Assessment

    Author:
  • Rebecca Slayton
| Winter 2016/17

Does cyberspace favor the offense, as many analysts and policymakers claim? Three factors undermine any cyber offensive advantage, as demonstrated in a cost-benefit analysis of the Stuxnet operation against Iran. First, any measurement of the offense-defense balance must consider a cyber operation’s value as well as its cost to both sides. Second, organizational capabilities play a significant role in determining the balance. Third, offensive advantages decline when attackers target physical infrastructure rather than information networks.

Mosul, Iraq ISIS workshop drone documents

AP

Journal Article - CTC Perspectives

The Islamic State's Drone Documents: Management, Acquisitions, and DIY Tradecraft

| Jan. 31, 2017

Much has been made of the Islamic State drone threat ever since the group killed two Kurdish soldiers in October 2016 with a bomb hidden within one of its drones that Kurdish forces downed in Iraq. The Islamic State was able to achieve this feat through an act of deception, as the two Kurdish soldiers were killed by the bomb after they had taken the drone back to their base to inspect it. Since this type of attack had not been conducted before, the drone was an unassuming place for the Islamic State to hide an improvised explosive device. But that trick only works occasionally, and it likely has a limited shelf life.

Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation: How States Pursue the Bomb

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation: How States Pursue the Bomb

| Winter 2016/17

Understanding which nuclear proliferation strategies are available to states and how to thwart them is crucial for global security. Analysis of the strategies chosen by potential proliferators, and particularly the history of India’s nuclear program, shows how states choose among four possible proliferation strategies: hedging, sprinting, hiding, and sheltered pursuit. Each strategy has vulnerabilities that can be exploited to prevent proliferation.

Learning to Deter: Deterrence Failure and Success in the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, 2006–16

AP

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Learning to Deter: Deterrence Failure and Success in the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict, 2006–16

| Winter 2016/17

Comparing Israel and Hezbollah’s interactions before and after the 2006 Lebanon War offers insights into the sources of deterrence stability. Since 2006, Israel and Hezbollah have learned to apply rational deterrence theory. Careful communication of capabilities and resolve has contributed to a decade without war. This history also illustrates how a weak actor can deter a stronger adversary by minimizing its own vulnerability and maximizing that of its opponent.

Deterrence and Dissuasion in Cyberspace

Senior Airman Lauren Penney

Journal Article - Quarterly Journal: International Security

Deterrence and Dissuasion in Cyberspace

| Winter 2016/17

Can states deter adversaries in cyberspace? Analogies drawn from nuclear deterrence mislead; nuclear deterrence aims for total prevention, whereas states do not expect to prevent every cyberattack. Additionally, cyber deterrence is possible even though it can be hard to identify the source of a cyberattack. Attribution problems do not hinder three of the major forms of cyber deterrence: denial, entanglement, and normative taboos.