Phase II: Potential Additional Cases

Phase I of the Thucydides’s Trap Project is complete, but the Case File is open for Phase II of the Project. In this next phase, we are seeking to identify additional cases that may illuminate the Thucydidean dynamic. These could include hegemonic challenges among less-than-major powers in regional or sub-regional competitions (e.g., the rise of South Korea to surpass North Korea in the decades after the Korean War) and competitions in a decisive domain (e.g., sea, air, or space). The list below includes cases that are currently under review, and we invite comments on these as well as prospects of additional cases. Because this next phase remains a work in progress, additions, criticism, and comments are encouraged.

 PeriodRuling PowerRising PowerResult
1Mid 16th centuryDenmarkSwedenWar
2Late 16th centuryJapanChinaWar
3Early 17th centurySpainDutch RepublicWar
4Early 18th centuryGreat BritainRussiaNo war
5Mid 18th centuryAustriaPrussiaWar
6Late 18th centuryRussiaSwedenNo war
7Late 19th centurySpainUnited StatesWar
8Mid 20th centurySoviet UnionChinaNo war
9Late 20th centuryIranIraqWar
10Late 20th centuryNorth KoreaSouth KoreaNo war