48 Items

President Donald Trump meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit, Saturday, July 8, 2017, in Hamburg, Germany. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Analysis & Opinions - London Evening Standard

Can America and China avoid going to war in the future?

| July 13, 2017

Less than three months after declaring that he had “great confidence” China would rein in North Korean belligerence, President Trump ranted on Twitter last week, “Trade between China and North Korea grew almost 40 per cent in the first quarter. So much for China working with us — but we had to give it a try!” Losing patience with China, Trump may take unilateral, even military, action against North Korea’s nuclear programme. Could this escalate into a second Korean War? 

USS Nimitz, USS Chosin, USS Sampson, and USS Pinkney in South China Sea.

U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class David Mercil

Analysis & Opinions - Herald Sun

Chinese Content to Play the Long Game

| July 11, 2017
As realistic students of history, Chinese leaders recognise that the role the US has played since World War II as the guardian of regional stability has been essential to China's rise. But they believe that as the tide that brought the US to Asia recedes, America must leave with it.

South Korean soldiers look at a map illustrating about the Korean War at the Korea War Memorial Museum in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, July 7, 2017. South Korea's new liberal President Moon Jae-in reiterated he's willing to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un even as he condemned the North's first intercontinental ballistic missile test-launch this week as a "reckless" move that incurred punishment by the international community. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)

AP Photo/Lee Jin-man

Analysis & Opinions - The Sunday Times

Donald Trump must threaten Kim Jong-un and pray he blinks

| July 09, 2017

"Since the election of Donald Trump as US president, the probability of a Sino-American conflict has soared. Last year Trump ran an aggressively anti-Chinese election campaign, repeatedly threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese imports. Trade is only one of several bones of contention. America remains committed to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. China’s island-building programme is designed to make that sea Chinese in fact as well as in name. Trump is less committed than any US president since Richard Nixon to the 'One China' policy, which pretends that Taiwan is not an independent state."

Video - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Graham Allison on Office Hours

| June 30, 2017

Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison), who is stepping down as the Director of the Belfer Center, a position he’s held for the past 22 years, takes a moment to talk with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) about his new book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap.” Allison explains the big idea that is Thucydides’s Trap, what might spark war between America and China, and what he has in common with Queen Elizabeth II.

Audio - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Graham Allison on Office Hours

| June 30, 2017

Graham Allison (@GrahamTAllison), who is stepping down as the Director of the Belfer Center, a position he’s held for the past 22 years, takes a moment to talk with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) about his new book “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap.” Allison explains the big idea that is Thucydides’s Trap, what might spark war between America and China, and what he has in common with Queen Elizabeth II.

China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) Gen. Li Zuocheng, left, and U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, center, review an honor guard during a welcome ceremony at the Bayi Building in Beijing. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool)

AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, Pool

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Is war between a rising China and a dominant America inevitable? A thought experiment.

| June 28, 2017

Chinese analysts, from President Xi Jinping on down, have nominally rejected Allison’s pessimistic analysis. “There is no Thucydides Trap,” Xi has argued, claiming that he had devised an alternative “new type of great-power relations” that would avoid war by recognizing that each Asian giant had its own legitimate interests. More recently, he has shifted to arguing that “China and the U.S. must do everything possible to avoid [the] Thucydides Trap.”

President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump pose for a photo with Chinese President Xi Jingping and his wife, Mrs. Peng Liyuan, Thursday, April 6, 2017, at the entrance of Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL (Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

Official White Photo by D. Myles Cullen

Magazine Article - The Atlantic

What Xi Jinping Wants

| May 31, 2017

"Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his 'Two Centennial Goals.' First, China will build a 'moderately prosperous society' by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, it will become a 'fully developed, rich, and powerful' nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's."

Book - Houghton Mifflin Harcourt

Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

| May 30, 2017

In Destined for War, the eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for understanding U.S.-China relations in the twenty-first century. Through uncanny historical parallels and war scenarios, he shows how close we are to the unthinkable. Yet, stressing that war is not inevitable, Allison also reveals how clashing powers have kept the peace in the past — and what painful steps the United States and China must take to avoid disaster today.