USE OF INTELLIGENCE IN POLICYMAKING
Jacom Stephens
July 2008
The Incisive Fight: Recommendations for Improving Counterterrorism Intelligence
Book Chapter, volume 618
By Eric Rosenbach, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The intelligence community has evolved significantly since the failures of 9/11 and the inaccurate assessments on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Congressional action has resulted in multiple far-reaching reforms and tectonic organizational shifts. On the strategic level, however, counterterrorism intelligence policy has been muddled during the past eight years. The Bush administration, for example, called on the intelligence community to "bolster the growth of democracy." The next president should cast aside political ideology and build on reform efforts to empower top-notch leaders. Strong new leaders in the intelligence community must energize the National Counterterrorism Center and provide the president with comprehensive and policy-relevant intelligence analysis. The United States cannot eliminate the global terrorist threat alone—the next president must boost cooperation with liaison security services. Finally, the intelligence community must bolster its operational capacity to find and detain terrorists around the world.
AP Photo
May 5, 2008
Preventing Terrorist Attacks: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom
Policy Memo
By Erik J. Dahl, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008
Why do terrorist attacks frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that warnings had been available but were either misunderstood or ignored? Conventional wisdom, as seen in the 9/11 Commission Report, holds that disasters such as the 9/11 attacks have been caused by failures of analytical imagination, a lack of long-term strategic intelligence on the threat, and organizational limitations that prevent the U.S. intelligence community from being able to “connect the dots” of the existing intelligence.
March 2008
Review Panel on Future Directions for Defense Threat Reduction Agency Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction
Report
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard & Stanford Universities and The Honorable Robert G. Joseph, Senior Scholar, National Institute for Public Policy
PDP Co-Director Ashton B. Carter and the Honorable Robert G. Joseph co-chaired a Review Panel on Future Directions for DTRA Missions and Capabilities to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
October 2007
Reducing Nuclear Threats and Preventing Nuclear Terrorism
Report
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard & Stanford Universities, Dr. William J. Perry, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School, Joseph Cirincione, Thomas E. Donilon, Robert Einhorn, Michele A. Flournoy, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 1989-1993, Leon Fuerth, Amb. Robert Gallucci, Ernest Moniz, George Perkovich and Amb. Wendy R. Sherman
This National Security Advisory Group report provides a new comprehensive strategy for reducing nuclear threats and preventing nuclear terrorism.
Fall 2007
"Color Bind: Lessons from the Failed Homeland Security Advisory System"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 32
By Jacob N. Shapiro and Dara Kay Cohen
The United States' color-coded Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS) has failed to motivate relevant actors to take costly protective measures in response to a terrorist alert, particularly after increases in the threat level appeared to be politically manipulated. The HSAS has neither shared relevant information regarding its alerts nor generated enough confidence in the government to convince the public to take necessary actions. An alternative trust-based alert system could succeed where HSAS has failed.
Autumn 2007
The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City
Journal Article, The Washington Quarterly, issue 4, volume 30
By Dr. Ashton B. Carter, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard & Stanford Universities, Dr. William J. Perry, Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project and Dr. Michael M. May
Failure to develop a comprehensive contingency plan, such as the one proposed here, and inform the American public, where appropriate, about its particulars will only serve to amplify the devastating impact of any nuclear attack on a U.S. city
June 17, 2007
Rushing Past Warning Signs
Magazine or Newspaper Article, St. Petersburg Times
By Bob Graham, Former Senior Research Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2005-2006
When the U.S. intelligence community released its October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) regarding Iraq and weapons of mass destruction, it had little idea that it would become the political hot potato of the 2008 presidential primaries
March 2007
"Decontamination and Remediation after a Dirty Bomb Attack"
Journal Article, The Nonproliferation Review, issue 1, volume 14
By Jennifer C. Bulkeley, Research Fellow, International Security Program
Article in The Nonproliferation Review
February 2007
Dealing with Dictators: Dilemmas of U.S. Diplomacy and Intelligence Analysis, 1945-1990
Book
By Ernest R. May, Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program and Philip D. Zelikow, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Former Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program
The United States continues to proclaim its support for democracy and its opposition to tyranny, but American presidents often have supported dictators who have allied themselves with the United States. This book illustrates the chronic dilemmas inherent in U.S. dealings with dictators under conditions of uncertainty and moral ambiguity.
February 2007
"Introduction: Seven Tenets"
Book Chapter
By Ernest R. May, Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program and Philip D. Zelikow, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Former Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program
"Almost from the beginning, a central theme of U.S. foreign policy has
been support for democracy against dictatorship...."
