INTELLIGENCE
AP Photo
Fall 2008
"Afghanistan: Partners in Time"
Journal Article, World Policy Journal, 25th Anniversary Edition, issue 3, volume 25
By Charles G. Cogan, Associate, International Security Program
"If the Pakistani authorities cannot or will not play their part, a way should be found to scale back significantly the U.S. and NATO military commitment in Afghanistan. Our fundamental problem, it should be emphasized, is with Al Qaeda, and secondarily with the Taliban, who sheltered Al Qaeda. We cannot be perceived as moving toward a colonial war, as happened in Vietnam...."
Jacom Stephens
July 2008
The Incisive Fight: Recommendations for Improving Counterterrorism Intelligence
Book Chapter, volume 618
By Eric Rosenbach, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
The intelligence community has evolved significantly since the failures of 9/11 and the inaccurate assessments on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Congressional action has resulted in multiple far-reaching reforms and tectonic organizational shifts. On the strategic level, however, counterterrorism intelligence policy has been muddled during the past eight years. The Bush administration, for example, called on the intelligence community to "bolster the growth of democracy." The next president should cast aside political ideology and build on reform efforts to empower top-notch leaders. Strong new leaders in the intelligence community must energize the National Counterterrorism Center and provide the president with comprehensive and policy-relevant intelligence analysis. The United States cannot eliminate the global terrorist threat alone—the next president must boost cooperation with liaison security services. Finally, the intelligence community must bolster its operational capacity to find and detain terrorists around the world.
Department of Energy
July 18, 2008
"'Appropriate Effective' Nuclear Security and Accounting — What is It?"
Presentation
By Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy; Co-Principal Investigator, Project on Managing the Atom
Project on Managing the Atom's Matthew Bunn discusses United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 — a major new tool for combating nuclear terrorism and proliferation that is little used.
AP Photo
July 18, 2008
"China's Cyber Warriors"
Op-Ed, Balitmore Sun
By Eric Rosenbach, Executive Director for Research, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Tamara Klajn
Could the United States be under attack from China without Americans even really knowing it?
Last week, Republican Reps. Frank R. Wolf of Virginia and Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey announced that Chinese hackers had attacked their office computers. Mr. Wolf and Mr. Smith, very public critics of China's human rights record, noted that it was likely that in 2006, the hackers sought to steal information about Chinese dissidents and refugees who had sought assistance from members of Congress.
Skeptics have suggested that the politicians' announcement was most likely intended as good old-fashioned China-bashing. After all, the details of the incident were "old news" to the U.S. national security community. And even the casual observer of American politics knows that China is often the target of unwarranted populist attacks on Capitol Hill.
July 2008
Terrorism: What the Next President will Face: The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
Book, volume 618
The July 2008 edition of the ANNALS of the American Academcy of Political and Social Science. It includes eighteen chapters discussing a wide range of topics relating to terrorism, including Al Qaeda, Iran, andcounterterrorism intelligence.
AP Photo
May 5, 2008
Preventing Terrorist Attacks: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom
Policy Memo
By Erik J. Dahl, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2006-2008
Why do terrorist attacks frequently succeed, even though later investigations almost always show that warnings had been available but were either misunderstood or ignored? Conventional wisdom, as seen in the 9/11 Commission Report, holds that disasters such as the 9/11 attacks have been caused by failures of analytical imagination, a lack of long-term strategic intelligence on the threat, and organizational limitations that prevent the U.S. intelligence community from being able to “connect the dots” of the existing intelligence.
People's Daily
April 2008
"Information Galaxy: Intelligence Study on Security and Defense—Case on Potential Terrorism at the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games"
Conference Paper
By Shacheng Wang, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008 and Feng Cao
The summer 2008 Olympic Games will take place in Beijing, China on August 8–24. In general, the security situation for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games is quite stable, but still we need to face up to the threats from both traditional and non-traditional security areas such as terrorism, separatism and extremism. Terrorism is the biggest threat to the games. Effective security and defense strategies for the games require reliable intelligence. Reliable intelligence, however, is notoriously difficult to obtain even though we are immersed in vast quantities of information. How can we identify and obtain the useful intelligence from the vast sea of other less useful information? After analyzing the potential terrorism attacks and terrorists in the games, the paper analyzes the potential means for counterterrorism at the games, and tries to set up an intelligence study system based on the IG (Information Galaxy), which includes five parts: Sun (S), Earth (E), Moon (M), ISE (Information Sharing Environment) and IG (Information Galaxy).
AP Photo
March 15, 2008
"Reform of Pakistan's Intelligence Services"
Op-Ed, The International News
By Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"The primary mission of intelligence services in a modern democratic state is to collect, analyze, evaluate, and pass on foreign intelligence to the government to assist it in making decisions related to national security. Their standard task also includes producing a range of studies that cover virtually any topic of interest to national-security policymakers. Depending on the resources, they use electronic means as well as human sources and, if necessary, undertake covert actions at the direction of the chief executive. A covert action is defined as an act to influence political, economic or military conditions abroad, while keeping in view some ethical considerations. Counter-intelligence operations mainly work to guard against espionage from foreign intelligence agencies in the country. They are also expected to effectively protect the secrets of its sources and methods. The role of intelligence services is to only report information and analysis and not to make policy recommendations."
AP Photo
February 28, 2008
New Iran IAEA Report: Reading Between the Lines
News
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
With the International Atomic Energy Agency scheduled to release its much-anticipated report on Iran within the next few days, Graham Allison offers his insight and analysis — as well as questions that remain unanswered.
AP Photo
February 25, 2008
"Security and Intelligence"
Op-Ed, The International News, (Pakistan)
By Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"The Pakistani Army positively contributed towards the holding of free elections on Feb 18, but it cannot be expected to do the job of law enforcement endlessly. Dependence on the military for such tasks ultimately persuades its leadership to increase the army’s involvement in the political domain, and in the process that follows such thinking, Pakistan loses many years. Generals like Waheed Kakar and Jahangir Karamat are rare, and given some recent developments it seems that Pakistan is lucky to have another of their kind in the form of the new chief, Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. This golden opportunity should not be lost (like before) to nurture and groom civilian institutions to stand on their own feet."
