SANCTIONS
AP Photo
November 2008
"The United States, Israel, and Iran: Defusing an 'Existential' Threat"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Arms Control Today
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"Iran is an existential threat to Israel. This apocalyptic warning call has become a mantra continually repeated by virtually all Israeli leaders and defense officials and has been adopted by much of the U.S. national security establishment. President George W. Bush even warned that Iran’s declared intention of destroying Israel could lead to World War III.
There is no doubt that Iran poses a severe threat to Israel, not only in the nuclear field, but what kind of danger does its nuclear program constitute? Is Israel’s future in imminent danger if Iran goes nuclear? The answer is probably not. Although somewhat reassuring, this response is less than satisfying...."
AP Photo
September 1, 2008
"US-Iranian Tango"
Op-Ed, The Jerusalem Post
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"...Engagement with Iran does not constitute appeasement, nor a slippery slope leading to further concessions. It can be these things if mishandled, but there is no reason for it to be anything other than a coherent, integrated policy. A policy based solely on sticks, without carrots, will surely fail. Engagement, however, should be conducted from a position of strength, with a concomitant attempt to increase pressure, such as heightened restrictions on international trade, banking and investments...."
August 22, 2008
Memo to President-elect McBama
Memorandum, Aspen Strategy Group
By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government; Faculty Chair, Dubai Initiative, Harvard Kennedy School
Graham Allison writes in a memo to a fictional President-elect McBama on the suject of nuclear terrorism, "You pledged that you would make preventing this catastrophe an organizing principle of your administration. This memo provides a brief outline of strategy and organization to fulfill that promise."
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Identities, Interests and the Resolution of the Abkhaz Conflict"
Journal Article, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, issue 3, volume 2
By Ondrej Ditrych, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
"The recent crisis in Abkhazia reveals a fundamental qualitative change in the conflict in which the balance among three main actors is shifting, and increasingly the conflict plays a more important role in the triangular relations between Georgia, Russia and the West. The search for a new equilibrium in the conflict, one that would be an optimal outcome for the actors involved, will require rethinking the mutually constitutive roles (identities) and interests they want to assume with respect to the conflict and the entire South Caucasus...."
AP Photo
August 9, 2008
"Chinese, Russian Stall Tactics on Iran"
Op-Ed, Boston Globe
By Joshua Gleis, Associate, International Security Program
"...The Chinese and Russians say they do not support stronger sanctions because they don't believe in their effectiveness. Off the record, however, both countries recognize that any form of sanctions that restrict their own business ventures is not going to stop the Iranians from pursuing their end goal of acquiring nuclear weapons.Thus in the meantime, the Russians and Chinese are angling themselves to maximize the economic benefits of such a precarious state of affairs in the Middle East...."
July 11, 2008
"Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations"
Q&A
By Joseph S. Nye, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations and Kayhan Barzegar, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
This interview elaborates on the applicability of Nye’s theory of “smart power” in the context of the Middle East and particularly Iran. The discussion further pushes the boundaries on how the current U.S policymakers should take into account soft and smart power towards Iran.
Nye: “… if the Americans, in efforts to try to stop the Iranian’s nuclear weapons program, were to bomb nuclear facilities in Iran, they might gain a few years of slowing down the nuclear weapons program but they would lose the whole generation of younger Iranians who would respond in a nationalistic way. So I think that would be a very large cost for a very limited benefit.”
AP Photo
June 25, 2008
"A Disastrous Attack on Iran?"
Op-Ed, The Jerusalem Post
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"...Only if the US proves to both domestic and world opinion that it has exhausted all diplomatic possibilities, will it gain support for major economic sanctions, let alone future military action. Iran will probably reject the offer, as it has all others, but we will only know if the option is pursued and it is a vital way station on the road to stronger measures. Talking to Iran does not imply acquiescence, or appeasement."
AP Photo
June 25, 2008
"Who Will Have the Courage to Save Zimbabwe?"
Op-Ed, The Boston Globe
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
AFTER Idi Amin terrorized and killed his own Ugandans throughout the 1970s, President Julius Nyerere of neighboring Tanzania finally sent his army across the border to end the mayhem and restore stability. Who will now do the same for beleaguered Zimbabwe?
February 22, 2008
New Iran IAEA Report: Be Cautious
News
By Joshua Gleis, Associate, International Security Program
One should not expect much benefit to come out of the impending IAEA report discussing Iranian nuclear activity, Joshua Gleis writes.
AP Photo
February 20, 2008
"Disavowing the Iran NIE: Smoke Screens or Smoking Guns?"
Op-Ed, Human Events
By Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program
"US policymakers, too, will have to give increasing thought to the options for living with a nuclear Iran, as well as to Israel's considerations. How the US engages with Israel and others regarding the NIE, will have a major effect on crucial decisions they will have to make in the coming months, as well as the long term prospects for containing Iran's nukes."
