INTRASTATE CONFLICT
November 2008
Partnership for Progress
Report
By Xenia Dormandy, Senior Associate, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
The Belfer Center's Xenia Dormandy and Hassan Abbas participated in a working group on the state of Pakistan convened by the Center for American Progress. The resulting report proposes strategies for enhanced security, democratization, and economic growth.
AP
October 29, 2008
"Six for Six"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
"Somalia seems to offer more intriguing evidence about how governments often must come to terms with militias, insurgent forces and other such informal armed groups in countries around the Arab-Asian region -- and the roles these entities play where formal governments appears unable to deliver the basic requirements of statehood."
AP Photo
October 5, 2008
Strengthening African Governance: Small States and Islands Top 2008 Rankings
Press Release
By Robert Rotberg, Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution
Small states, island states, and Botswana and South Africa are the best governed countries in sub-Saharan Africa according to this year's Index of African Governance, released today by researchers at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Mauritius, an Indian Ocean island-state, tops the list of well-governed territories for the second year, the Seychelles is second, Cape Verde third, Botswana fourth, and South Africa fifth.
AP Photo
September 25, 2008
"Only a New Constitution Can Guarantee a Better Kenya"
Op-Ed, The Daily Nation, (Kenya)
By Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International Development; Director, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project
"The constitutional orders put in place in much of Africa, following independence, were largely a continuation of the colonial economic order. The associated governance structures are being swept aside by globalisation, demographic change, and demands for democratic liberties."
AP Photo
September 2008
"From FATA to the NWFP: The Taliban Spread Their Grip in Pakistan"
Journal Article, CTC Sentinel, issue 10, volume 1
By Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"...Any effort to stem the tide of extremism in the NWFP first requires a dispassionate analysis of the ground realities. This article attempts to examine such indicators, by explaining how the Taliban have managed to spread their influence from FATA into the NWFP, and will present some ideas on how to reverse extremist trends...."
AP Photo
September 2008
"Russia's Recipe for Empire"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Foreign Policy
By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy
Russia’s recent campaign against Georgia is a textbook example of how powerful states forged empires in centuries gone by. For those who have forgotten, here’s how it’s done.
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Identities, Interests and the Resolution of the Abkhaz Conflict"
Journal Article, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, issue 3, volume 2
By Ondrej Ditrych, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
"The recent crisis in Abkhazia reveals a fundamental qualitative change in the conflict in which the balance among three main actors is shifting, and increasingly the conflict plays a more important role in the triangular relations between Georgia, Russia and the West. The search for a new equilibrium in the conflict, one that would be an optimal outcome for the actors involved, will require rethinking the mutually constitutive roles (identities) and interests they want to assume with respect to the conflict and the entire South Caucasus...."
Marcelo Wain
August 18, 2008
"Tripoli and Middle East Currents"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
When I returned to live and work in Lebanon some years ago, a wise Lebanese friend advised me to go to Tripoli in north Lebanon if I really wanted to understand the complex forces that drove the country and the region. He was right, as I discovered on several visits to the city. Today that advice is more valid than ever, though sadly the Middle East 's prevailing politics and ideologies often assert themselves violently.
Michael Bronner
August 16, 2008
"When the War Ends, Start to Worry"
Op-Ed, New York Times
"EVEN as Russia and Georgia continue their on-again, off-again struggle over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a frenzied tea-leaf reading about the war's global political ramifications has broken out across airwaves and think-tank forums. But as the situation on the ground recedes inevitably to some new form of the pernicious "frozen conflict" that has plagued the region since Georgia's civil wars of the early 1990s, few are paying attention to a less portentous but equally critical international threat: an increase in the longstanding, rampant criminality in the conflict zones that is likely to further destabilize the entire Caucasus region and at worst provide terrorist groups with the nuclear material they have long craved."
AP photo
Summer 2008
"Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
How might Iran retaliate in the aftermath of a limited Israeli or U.S. strike? The most economically devastating of Iran's potential responses would be closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to open-source order of battle data, as well as relevant analogies from military history and GIS maps, Iran does possess significant littoral warfare capabilities, including mines, antiship cruise missiles, and land-based air defense. If Iran were able to properly link these capabilities, it could halt or impede traffic in the Strait of Hormuz for a month or more. U.S. attempts to reopen the waterway likely would escalate rapidly into sustained, large-scale air and naval operations during which Iran could impose significant economic and military costs on the United States — even if Iranian operations were not successful in truly closing the strait. The aftermath of limited strikes on Iran would be complicated and costly, suggesting needed changes in U.S. force posture and energy policy.
