RELIGIOUS AND ETHNIC WARS, ETHNIC CONFLICT
AP
October 29, 2008
"Six for Six"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
"Somalia seems to offer more intriguing evidence about how governments often must come to terms with militias, insurgent forces and other such informal armed groups in countries around the Arab-Asian region -- and the roles these entities play where formal governments appears unable to deliver the basic requirements of statehood."
AP Photo
September 25, 2008
"Only a New Constitution Can Guarantee a Better Kenya"
Op-Ed, The Daily Nation, (Kenya)
By Calestous Juma, Professor of the Practice of International Development; Director, Science, Technology, and Globalization Project
"The constitutional orders put in place in much of Africa, following independence, were largely a continuation of the colonial economic order. The associated governance structures are being swept aside by globalisation, demographic change, and demands for democratic liberties."
Fall 2008
"Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 2, volume 33
Nuclear weapons have had two destabilizing effects on the South Asian security environment. First, nuclear weapons’ ability to shield Pakistan against all-out Indian retaliation, and to attract international attention to Pakistan’s dispute with India, encouraged aggressive Pakistani behavior. Second, these Indo-Pakistani crises led India to adopt a more aggressive conventional military posture toward Pakistan. This development could exacerbate regional security-dilemma dynamics and increase the likelihood of Indo-Pakistani conflict in years to come. Thus nuclear weapons not only destabilized South Asia in the first decade after the nuclear tests; they may damage the regional security environment well into the future.
AP Photo
September 2008
"From FATA to the NWFP: The Taliban Spread Their Grip in Pakistan"
Journal Article, CTC Sentinel, issue 10, volume 1
By Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"...Any effort to stem the tide of extremism in the NWFP first requires a dispassionate analysis of the ground realities. This article attempts to examine such indicators, by explaining how the Taliban have managed to spread their influence from FATA into the NWFP, and will present some ideas on how to reverse extremist trends...."
Eva Serraberra
September 15, 2008
"The Tragic Failure of Arab Moderates"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
"It is worthwhile viewing George W. Bush's presidency from a different perspective than America's performance abroad, for example by reviewing the efforts and fate of those around the world who partnered with Washington..."
AP Photo
September 2008
"Russia's Recipe for Empire"
Magazine or Newspaper Article, Foreign Policy
By Monica Duffy Toft, Associate Professor of Public Policy
Russia’s recent campaign against Georgia is a textbook example of how powerful states forged empires in centuries gone by. For those who have forgotten, here’s how it’s done.
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Identities, Interests and the Resolution of the Abkhaz Conflict"
Journal Article, Caucasian Review of International Affairs, issue 3, volume 2
By Ondrej Ditrych, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2007-2008
"The recent crisis in Abkhazia reveals a fundamental qualitative change in the conflict in which the balance among three main actors is shifting, and increasingly the conflict plays a more important role in the triangular relations between Georgia, Russia and the West. The search for a new equilibrium in the conflict, one that would be an optimal outcome for the actors involved, will require rethinking the mutually constitutive roles (identities) and interests they want to assume with respect to the conflict and the entire South Caucasus...."
Marcelo Wain
August 18, 2008
"Tripoli and Middle East Currents"
Op-Ed, Agence Global
By Rami Khouri, Senior Fellow, The Dubai Initiative
When I returned to live and work in Lebanon some years ago, a wise Lebanese friend advised me to go to Tripoli in north Lebanon if I really wanted to understand the complex forces that drove the country and the region. He was right, as I discovered on several visits to the city. Today that advice is more valid than ever, though sadly the Middle East 's prevailing politics and ideologies often assert themselves violently.
AP Photo
August 13, 2008
"Solving FATA"
Op-Ed, The National Interest
By Hassan Abbas, Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program
"The growing Taliban insurgency in the Afghan-Pakistan border area increasingly threatens the geography of the region. Continuation of this crisis could derail the India-Pakistan peace process, undermine democratic gains in Pakistan as well as Afghanistan, and jeopardize U.S. interests in the region.
Despite the explosive nature of the crisis and apparent consensus between the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees about the need for additional focus on the area—as well as military forces there—the popular analysis of the situation often fails to appreciate the very basic facts of the issue...."
AP Photo
Summer 2008
"Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict"
Journal Article, International Security, issue 1, volume 33
By Maria Stephan, Former Research Fellow, Intrastate Conflict Program/International Security Program, 2003-2005 and Erica Chenoweth, Associate, International Security Program
The historical record indicates that nonviolent campaigns have been more successful than armed campaigns in achieving ultimate goals in political struggles, even when used against similar opponents and in the face of repression. Nonviolent campaigns are more likely to win legitimacy, attract widespread domestic and international support, neutralize the opponent's security forces, and compel loyalty shifts among erstwhile opponent supporters than are armed campaigns, which enjoin the active support of a relatively small number of people, offer the opponent a justification for violent counterattacks, and are less likely to prompt loyalty shifts and defections. An original, aggregate data set of all known major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006 is used to test these claims. These dynamics are further explored in case studies of resistance campaigns in Southeast Asia that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.
