Events

  • Main battle tank T-14 object 148 Armata (in the streets of Moscow on the way to or from the Red Square), 9 May 2015.

    Wikimedia CC/Vitaly V. Kuzmin

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Technological Change and Shifts in Military Capabilities: A Reassessment

    Thu., May 19, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Shahryar Pasandideh,  Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar explores the relationship between advances in military technology and shifts in military capabilities with a focus on the processes of technological development and measure-countermeasure dynamics. By doing so, it offers new perspectives on the effects of technological change on international politics.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIqc-iurzwvG9wHgCj30qUwwbp9jOB4K5yE

  • Günter Mittag (middle), member of the Politburo and Secretary of the Central Committee of the SED, deputy chairman of the State Council of the GDR, had a conversation in Bonn with the Bavarian Prime Minister and Chairman of the CSU, Franz Josef Strauss (left). The head of the Permanent Representation of the GDR in the FRG, Amb. Ewald Moldt, took part, 1 April 1987.

    Wikimedia CC/Peter Koard

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Franz Josef Strauss' "Grand Design": The Many Paths to German Reunification, European Unity, and Ostpolitik in the Age of Détente

    Thu., May 12, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Lukas Paul Schmelter, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    The late 1960s marked a watershed in the history of West German foreign policy, as larger geopolitical forces reshaped the Cold War and West Germany's role in it. Amongst the politicians responding to these changes was Franz Josef Strauss, whose ideas presented a clear alternative to the course of Ostpolitik pursued by Bonn from 1969. This seminar will explore Strauss' strategic framework in the context of the domestic and international circumstances of the mid to late 1960s, and in doing so, address fundamental questions of post-war German foreign policy that remain relevant to the present day.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUvduyqqzstG9eqhQbiQxA9GT5Knnv3PzhT

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Russia in Africa: Resurgent Great Power or Bellicose Pretender?

    Thu., May 5, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Samuel Ramani, Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute 

    Since 2014, Russia has re-emerged as a great power in Africa. Russia has signed mining and energy contracts with African countries, exploited anti-Western sentiments in Africa, and used sinister tactics, such as election interference and private military contractor deployments, to bolster its influence. Russia's geopolitical position in Africa has weathered the storm of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This seminar will examine the foundations of Russia's current influence in Africa and the threat that the Kremlin poses to Western interests on the continent. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEpc-GhrzMuEt3IRcXKSRqyc8bqtDZJR_5Z

  • Grand Kremlin Palace, Moscow, 1 March 2014.

    Wikimedia CC/Ludvig14

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Russia in a Contested International Order: The Foundations and Frameworks of Moscow's International Thought

    Thu., Apr. 28, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Nicole Grajewski, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and embattlement with the West has signified the fundamental divergences in Moscow's approaches to international order. Rather than an aberration, present-day Russian foreign policy has been consistent with the persistent factors in Moscow's international thought. This presentation offers a framework for interpreting Russian foreign policy thinking and Moscow's approaches to the maintenance and transformation of international order.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAtdeqoqzsoG9FhW7bqUJ8vFPuWvEGbHjKB

  • Theodore Roosevelt, Joseph Cannon, members of the Republican Nomination Committee, and guests in front of Sagamore Hill, Oyster Bay, N.Y., 4 August 1904.

    Public Domain/Underwood & Underwood

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Roosevelt and Russia: The 1904 Presidential Campaign

    Thu., Apr. 21, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Andrew Porwancher, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    As Theodore Roosevelt launched his re-election bid for the White House, Russian-American relations took center stage. Russia was then denying visas to U.S. passport–holders of Jewish faith, and the "Passport Question" became a critical issue for Jewish voters. This seminar will explore Roosevelt's strategic, and often secretive, campaign to leverage diplomacy at the ballot box.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0qfu6trToiHtFzUuzqYHFQjRDWxl98jzMg 

  • Numerous former U.S. Air Force Republic F-84 Thunderjet fighter-bombers being scrapped at the Military Aircraft Storage and Disposition Center (MASDC) at Tucson, Arizona, 1980. These F-84s were retired in the 1950s.

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Controlling Tomorrow: Anticipatory Arms Control for Emerging Military Technologies

    Thu., Apr. 14, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker:  Justin Key Canfil, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program

    If defense planners are paid to imagine the future of war, and military R&D is costly and uncertain, why do states so often invest in building technologies before banning them? This seminar advances a theory to explain why states expend limited resources on new weapons destined for the scrapheap and concludes with implications for the management of 21st century emerging military technologies.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcrdOisrDIoGtdmmrICWwepLUSA-gR1pIMP

  • Settlement in Abuja hosting people who escaped Boko Haram's rule in Northeast Nigeria.

    Antonia Juelich Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Turbulent vs Stable Cooperation: How (Dis)location Affects Pathways of Civilian Cooperation in Boko Haram–controlled Territory

    Thu., Apr. 7, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Antonia Juelich, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Most people assume that civilians cooperate with rebels when they share their cause, and that the absence of cooperation signifies tacit or active resistance. However, this seminar seeks to reveal greater variation in civilian motivations and behavior in rebel-controlled territory. Based on interviews with people who have lived under Boko Haram's rule in Northeast Nigeria, it sheds light on the interplay between rebel structures and civilian agency in war zones. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYrc-2rrDIoGdeObnA5JECzhYXlRjnqkaOR 

  • Ghanaian President Kwame Nkrumah (first from right) and his family meeting Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser during the 1965 Organization of African Unity Summit in Accra, Ghana.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Anticolonial Diplomacy and the Search for a New International Economic Order, 1960–1975

    Thu., Mar. 31, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Vivien L. Chang, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    What role(s) did sub-Saharan African elites play in the movement for a New International Economic Order? After achieving postcolonial statehood, African statesmen, intellectuals, and diplomats sought to leverage their newfound representation within regional and international organizations into political and economic power. Central to their efforts was the imperative to attain an equitable share of the world's wealth and resources. This presentation traces how this vision of anticolonial unity and economic sovereignty evolved and expanded through its interactions with national bureaucracies, international agencies, and grassroots organizations in the 1960s and 1970s.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwtcOirpzkuHNUZwH7sNHckBOvZg48ZKqKn 

  • Prosecutor Luis M. Ocampo (bearded), during the trial of the Juntas (Argentina's military government), 1985.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Trials and Affirmations: When Transitional Prosecutions Improve the Rule of Law

    Thu., Mar. 24, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Christopher Wiley Shay, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Previous research has yielded mixed results about whether transitional justice prosecutions help liberalize states. Some scholars have even warned that prosecutions are likely to backfire. This seminar shines new light on this debate by specifying the conditions under which trials are likely to help — either by bolstering the rule of law or diminishing human rights abuse. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMpceitqzwvGtZLXXfOxtAAyX4ipdZ2IWh2

  • A man waving a giant flag combining the Iranian, Palestinian, Syrian and Hezbollah flags during a celebration at Azadi Square in the Iranian capital Tehran.

    Courtesy of TheKhilafah

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Strategy of Resistance: Asymmetric Deterrence and Middle East Conflicts

    Thu., Mar. 10, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Daniel Sobelman,  Assistant Professor of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

    In contemporary Middle Eastern politics, the term "resistance" connotes a strong anti-Western, pro-Iranian, geo-political, and ideological orientation. But in addition to representing a quest for a new regional order, "resistance" has come to signify a coherent strategy of asymmetric intra-war deterrence. As a strategic approach, "resistance" has been pursued, among other places, in conflict areas such as Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. This seminar will discuss the regional diffusion of "resistance" as an asymmetric strategy, a fact that has led to multiple attempts to employ it. Drawing on various case studies, the seminar will explain the within- and between-case variation in the different "resistance" actors' ability to constrain and deter their militarily superior adversaries.

    Everyone is invited to join us via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUrcO6rrD0sH91wcgu0ZlEQ4u-QmaVuoau0 

  • At the UN, Colin Powell holds a model vial of anthrax, while arguing that Iraq is likely to possess WMDs, 5 February 2003.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Secret Foundations of Liberal Order

    Thu., Mar. 3, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Michael Poznansky, Associate Professor, U.S. Naval War College

    How has the liberal international order shaped American foreign policy? Proponents argue its impact has been profound. Critics charge that it has failed to prevent the United States from violating rules and norms. The answer lies in between. While rule violations have been a constant feature of the postwar order, the nature of violations have varied in unappreciated ways. America's approach toward the liberal order, including whether leaders feel the need to conceal rule violations at all, is a function of two factors: (1) the burden of complying with the liberal order’s core tents and (2) the intensity of great power competition. Together, these factors help explain broad patterns of U.S. behavior over time.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpd--uqD4iHdB-PvxChRUwx_-R6Sj2Z3nL

  • The littoral combat ship USS Fort Worth (LCS-3) conducts patrols in international waters of the South China Sea near the Spratly Islands as the People's Liberation Army-Navy [PLA(N)] guided-missile frigate Yancheng (FFG 546) transits close behind, May 11, 2015.

    U.S. Navy Photo/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Conor Minto

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Costs of Control: Chinese Strategy in the South China Sea, 1988–2015

    Thu., Feb. 24, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Andrew D. Taffer, Associate, International Security Program

    Why has China risked alienating the region — and undermining its grand strategy of rising peacefully in Asia — to advance its claims in the South China Sea (SCS)? How has Beijing managed the tension between its interests in the SCS and its broader strategic objectives? This seminar examines the evolution of China's conduct in the SCS from its entry into the Spratly islands in 1988 until 2015. A framework is developed for conceptualizing the strategic costs and risks associated with Chinese conduct, and it is used to explain variation in China's behavior both over time and among its three major rivals — Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAvc-mhrTkqE9DzXTy0XlhAG7QVdsuAETpu

  • James Brooke, White Rajah of Sarawak, 1847. Portrait by Francis Grant

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Long-term Political Order as the Result of Bandwagoning and Balancing: The Brookes of Sarawak

    Thu., Feb. 17, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Associate, International Security Program

    This is a story of external rule creating and supporting long-term political order over 100 years in what was then the state of Sarawak, in Southeast Asia. The success of the Brooke family is puzzling given the difficulties of empire over three centuries and current frustrations with Western state-building efforts. The Brookes flourished without the trappings and tools of empire; used personal influence; organized violence by a small number of armed Englishmen sufficient to balance power among armed indigenous groups; and made partnerships with indigenous peoples to take and retain power. Their success as outsider rulers rested on their use of balancing and bandwagoning.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIlcuqvqDkvGtIDPr8oVb0n2M1n_gBkqvjT

  • Map of Northern Nigeria: Native Authority Areas, 1962

    BMArchives

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Rethinking Britain's "Liberal Empire" and its Lessons

    Thu., Feb. 10, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Barnaby Crowcroft, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    The historical debate over the British empire tends to be preoccupied with its role — whether for good or for ill — in spreading some form of "liberal modernity" throughout its territories. However, this has tended to neglect the much wider British practice of empire through alliance, treaty, and protection-style arrangements, which had little if any connection with liberal reform. This presentation will introduce this "other" British empire, discuss some of its primary locations, institutions, and motivating ideas and reflect upon its possible lessons for international and foreign policy.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcscOGgpj8rHNJuCVOSMvoqXABgfshFxBbn

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Transforming the War on Drugs: Warriors, Victims, and Vulnerable Regions

    Thu., Feb. 3, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Annette Idler, Director, Global Security Programme, Pembroke College; Senior Research Fellow, Dept. of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford

    50 years after U.S. President Nixon declared the War on Drugs, this "War" has failed to significantly reduce the scale or impact of illicit drug production and trafficking. Yet consensus on the way forward is missing from the international policy debate: some states have introduced national reforms; others continue to champion militarized approaches.  How can the international community tackle the complex causes and consequences that this war is intended to address? 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcuf-CgqzgsHNcwtJ0Vz3hVVjKJWHqj8UdO 

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Britain and the Creation of the United Nations, 1939–1945

    Thu., Jan. 27, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Andrew Ehrhardt, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    The historical scholarship focusing on the creation of the United Nations Organization tends to be skewed towards the role played by the United States. Often overlooked is the influence of the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union, to say nothing of other powers, from Australia and New Zealand to the Netherlands and China. This presentation will focus on the role of the United Kingdom, in particular, and will discuss the way in which Foreign Office officials worked to deliver on plans for a post-war international organization. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJckde2hpzkiHNb91pdfngqcuFufpFmJKIRa

  • The SR-71B Blackbird, flown by the Dryden Flight Research Center as NASA 831, slices across the snow-covered southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California after being refueled by an Air Force tanker during a December 1994 flight. SR-71B was the trainer version of the SR-71. Notice the dual cockpit to allow the instructor to fly the airplane.

    USAF/Judson Brohmer

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Use Their Force: Interstate Security Alignments and the Distribution of Military Capabilities

    Thu., Jan. 20, 2022 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: J. Andrés Gannon, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do capable states sometimes possess seemingly inefficient militaries that leave them vulnerable to security threats? The speaker argues that vulnerable force structures are not just the result of poor planning or resource constraints; rather, these observed "inefficiencies" are often a strategically motivated decision to specialize one's force structure. States can engage in strategically motivated functional differentiation by specializing their militaries when they engage in cooperative security alignments. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIvdO-hrz8sHNwj-C-c2-eR6zc7PSeYbbUA

  • L-8, a United States Navy blimp whose two-man crew vanished under mysterious circumstances, floats unmanned over San Francisco, California, on August 16, 1942.

    U.S. National Archives

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Disarmament by Replacement: Balloons, Bio, and Nuclear Weapons

    Thu., Dec. 16, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Heather Williams, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Why would states give up nuclear weapons? What can historical cases of disarmament teach scholars and policymakers about a pathway to nuclear elimination? One model of disarmament is delegitimization, when humanitarian concerns, legal mechanisms, or changes in international norms cause the elimination of weapons. Another explanation is that disarmament occurs when there is an easing of tensions in geopolitics. But both of these models fail to consider advances in military technology and how these changes inform reliance on certain weaponry. This seminar offers a third model, disarmament by replacement, whereby the relative military utility of a weapon is a decisive factor in disarmament.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0scOmqqjsrGd1U6PSgtcfQE4VP3o-yDvUH

  • Members of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), one of the largest militant groups in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria.

    Al Jazeera

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Government–Armed Group Relations in Nigeria and Kenya

    Thu., Dec. 9, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Megan Turnbull, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do governments and armed groups cooperate in some places and times, violently engage each other in others, and reluctantly tolerate one another still elsewhere? Megan Turnbull argues that the management of coalitional threats in the periphery and the nature of armed groups' ties with local communities (protective or predatory) explain when national-level incumbents collude with, repress, or reluctantly tolerate armed groups. She draws on comparative case studies from Nigeria and Kenya to empirically support her argument and assess rival explanations. The findings contribute to scholarship on armed politics and political orders.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEuc--uqDMpEtWAJuYMx-ANgjOL3CI1k3Al 

  • Eduardo Frei Montalva with his wife and Cardinal Raúl Silva Henríquez in an undated photo.

    Wikimedia CC/Biblioteca del Congreso Nacional

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    How Does Religion Affect U.S. Foreign Policy? The Christian Democracy and U.S.-Chilean Relations, 1954–1967

    Thu., Dec. 2, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Élodie Giraudier, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Élodie Giraudier presents findings from her ongoing research project on the U.S.-Chilean Catholic networks, showing that political and religious actors collaborated to fight against communism in Chile, especially during the John F. Kennedy administration.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEldOuvqzooGNUSWbvDACZUej9cF7Admaea 

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Why Nations Rise: Narratives and the Path to Great Power

    Thu., Nov. 18, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations

    What are rising powers? Do they challenge the international order? Why do some countries, but not others, become rising powers? In Why Nations Rise, Manjari Chatterjee Miller argues that some countries rise not just because they develop the military and economic power to do so, but because they develop particular narratives about how to become a great power in the style of the great power of the great power of the day. She uses historical cases to understand the divergent paths of contemporary China and India.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:  https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcqd-2tpzgoHdZeCSyFAH44oU1oVMx03Xyo 

  • Dresden 1945: View from the town hall tower over the destroyed city.

    Wikimedia CC/Bundesarchiv

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Good News, Bad News: U.S. Public Opinion and the Laws of War

    Thu., Nov. 4, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Charli Carpenter, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    What do Americans really think about the noncombatant immunity norm? Charli Carpenter presents findings from her ongoing research project on U.S. public opinion on civilian immunity and on the nuclear taboo, showing that norms are both stronger and more fragile than scholars believe.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwodeytqDkrH9JNskJaQJJJ1_PeaFq3c9d8

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Chinese Communist Party Information Warfare: Ideology, Influence, and Coercion in the Indo-Pacific

    Thu., Oct. 28, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Ryan Skaggs, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Lt. Col. Ryan Skaggs presents findings from his ongoing research project on Chinese Communist Party (CCP) use of Information Warfare against Australia, Micronesia, Melanesia, the Philippines, and Thailand and their effects on U.S. access, overflight, and basing arrangements within the Indo-Pacific Theater. This seminar explores the underlying concepts of Information Warfare, examines CCP strategic use and approaches to Information Warfare, and introduces a methodology for characterizing and assessing CCP influence campaigns within the Indo-Pacific.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMvf-ypqTgsEtOuAzLVN3BvcBPvKYmSclor

  • Nuclear weapons test in Nevada in 1957

    Flickr CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    When Foreign Countries Push The Button: Does the Nuclear Taboo Only Begin at the Water's Edge?

    Thu., Oct. 21, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Joshua A. Schwartz,  Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft Fellow, International Security Program

    Despite the substantive importance of nuclear weapons to international peace and security, there is significant disagreement among scholars about whether the normative constraints on their use are strong or weak. This seminar presents a theory of in-group bias and tests it using three survey experiments; two in the United States and one in India. Promisingly and in accordance with theoretical expectations, the results show that the public is significantly less likely to approve of a nuclear attack when it is conducted by a non-allied government compared to their own domestic government or that of a close ally.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwuceGrrj4uH93VW_G-E4f9u12dPtpVZBci

  • Oil Pump Jack Between Seminole and Andrews, West Texas, August 13, 2008.

    Flickr CC/Paul Lowry

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Globalizing Oil, Unleashing Capital: An International History of the 1970s Energy Crisis

    Thu., Oct. 14, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Marino Auffant, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    How did the 1970s Energy Crisis reorder the world? Until 1973, successive U.S. administrations had relied on Venezuela and Canada as the country's main energy partners and had actively restricted oil imports from the Middle East. However, with the promise of Saudi petrodollars inflows, the United States ended these longstanding partnerships and tied its economic fate to that of the Persian Gulf. This shift had long-lasting consequences: Not only did the United States make itself vulnerable to the Arab oil embargo, but this First Oil Shock gave rise to the world's current monetary architecture, entangled the United States geopolitically in the Persian Gulf, and destabilized the Middle East by spawning the Iranian and Iraqi nuclear programs.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYud-2oqjgtGNQql4LL49mfK3w1KHzWmm1b 

  • U.S. President Richard M. Nixon and King Faisal of Saudi Arabia in Jeddah, June 15, 1974.

    Courtesy of Richard Nixon Presidential Library

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Oil Money: Middle East Petrodollars and the Transformation of US Empire, 1967–1988

    Thu., Sep. 30, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: David M. Wight, Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of History, University of North Carolina at Greensboro

    Dr. David M. Wight will discuss his book Oil Money, which offers a new framework for understanding the course of Middle East–U.S. relations during the 1970s and 1980s: the transformation of the U.S. global empire by Middle East petrodollars. During these two decades, American, Arab, and Iranian elites reconstituted the primary role of the Middle East within the global system of U.S. power from a supplier of cheap crude oil to a source of abundant petrodollars, the revenues earned from the export of oil.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYvdeuprDgjHtBXnMPUS-FwCo1LlJklN1JX

  • Defense Secretary Dr. Mark T. Esper, right, and Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino, the Pacific Fleet commander, watch live-fire demonstrations aboard the amphibious assault ship USS Essex during RIMPAC 2020, Aug. 26, 2020.

    U.S. Navy Photo/Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class John Luke McGovern

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Returning to Rimland Containment? Historicizing Current American Policies in the Asia-Pacific

    Thu., Sep. 23, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Mesrob Vartavarian, Fellow, Harvard University Asia Center

    The recent U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has raised a host of questions regarding America's future strategic direction and geopolitical policies. This seminar argues that President Biden's hard pivot to Asia can potentially succeed in curbing China's revisionist aspirations if it takes the needs and distinct historical trajectories of America's Asia-Pacific alliance partners into account. It uses Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines as case studies.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEocO6vrzspG9PQ2WLcKxrXmgG52yENsVyk 

  • Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization: Treaty Negotiations in Geneva in 1994.

    CTBTO

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Veto Players, Treaty Effectiveness, and Multilateral Nuclear Arms Control

    Thu., Sep. 16, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Stephen Herzog, Senior Researcher in Nuclear Arms Control, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich; Associate, Project on Managing the Atom

    Why do some treaties face difficult entry-into-force prospects after negotiators agree on their legal provisions? Multilateral nuclear arms control treaties, for example, often face far more contentious journeys to enter into force than their bilateral counterparts. These treaties usually indicate the number of states that must deposit ratification instruments, or may even require participation by specific states. To better understand such delays, Stephen Herzog presents a theory of treaty entry-into-force.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUkd-mhqjsvHdH15Dg8RHMId9xyGBgKSpQB 

  • President Donald J. Trump addresses the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, 2 October 2017.

    White House Photo/D. Myles Cullen

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Thinking Fast and Slow: Provocations and International Conflict

    Thu., June 10, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speakers: Hyun-Binn Cho, Assistant Professor in Political Science and International Studies, The College of New Jersey; Associate, Project on Managing the Atom; Alex Yu-Ting Lin, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Verbal threats between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, the killing of an Iranian general by a U.S. drone strike, and maritime clashes in the South China Sea have all led to concerns about "provocations" resulting in unwanted conflict. This seminar explores how individuals react to foreign provocations depending on how they process information. By doing so, it offers new insights into the links between provocation and international conflict.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event: 
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEudeyopzgiEt2El6d8hTfrH698FK0ajQi_

  • Ayatollah Khamenei meets Vladimir Putin on November 23, 2015.

    Wikimedia CC/english.khamenei.ir

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    International Order and its Discontents: Russia, Iran, and the Struggles for Recognition

    Thu., June 3, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Nicole Grajewski, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will examine the nature of the Russia-Iran relationship, drawing on research of Moscow and Tehran’s domestic foreign policy debates, archival documents, and elite interviews. It offers a framework that accounts for multiple expressions of power and the norms, ideas, values, and solidaristic bonds inherent in the evolution of the Russia-Iran relationship. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUpduispzgsEtK5f7O-Ro6HT-HNvlfeklJz 

  • President Hassan Rouhani with a face mask, 25 July 2020. Rouhani says Iran is retaliating against U.S. sanctions.

    Wikimedia CC/Tasnim News Agency

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Calibrated Resistance: The Political Dynamics of Iran's Nuclear Policymaking under Trump

    Thu., May 20, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Abolghasem Bayyenat, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Drawing parallel with domestic and international conditions leading to the successful conclusion of the JCPOA in 2015, this research seeks to put Iran's nuclear policymaking during the Trump administration into perspective and explain why Iran pursued the strategy of calibrated resistance, how this strategy became possible, and why alternative policies became unthinkable or impossible.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYqfuGqrjIiE9WN_u4jDdSGCkYNnTLu1_31 

  • The Well number one (Masjed Soleyman Well) was first oil well in Iran. The well was drilled on January 23, 1908 by the Anglo-Persian Oil Company.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Persian Petroleum

    Thu., May 13, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker:  Leonardo Davoudi, Researcher, Global History of Capitalism project, Oxford Centre for Global History, Oxford University; Author, Persian Petroleum

    Striking oil in the Middle East transformed the modern geostrategic landscape. It galvanized great-power rivalries, exacerbated regional fractures, and fostered animosity towards foreign interference. Using newly-uncovered private papers, Persian Petroleum delves into the region's first oil find, at the turn of the twentieth century, to reveal the geopolitical setting, domestic context, and widespread intrigue that led to the creation of one of the world's largest oil companies.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIlf-uvrT8uHtybNp4cdpEdxDQ9KmCVr5TV 

  • Forward Operating Base (FOB) Fenty, Jalalabad, Afghanistan, looking north to the southern edge of the Hindu Kush Mountains, 14 February 2011.

    Nate Moir Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Parallel Hierarchies: A Political and Social History of Shadow Systems of Governance in Conflict

    Thu., May 6, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Nathaniel L. Moir, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Great power competition is not synonymous with conventional approaches to warfare. Over the last sixty years, irregular conflict — including insurgency and counterinsurgency, information operations, and other ways of war — predominated in most conflicts. Through seven chronologically organized case studies, the speaker will focus on conflicts in East and Southeast Asia in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries to analyze how vanguard movements formed parallel hierarchies to gain socio-political control over competitors. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0kdO-oqTwsHtxbixwYOATzKist2pZ0hjN1 

  • New indigenous PHWR (Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor) under construction, Gujarat, India, 9 June 2016.

    Wikimedia CC/Reetesh Chaurasia

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Technology Transfer, Control, and Re-invention of the Indian Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor

    Thu., Apr. 29, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Aditi Verma, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral  Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    The design and creation of complex socio-technical systems require the production and use of both tacit and explicit knowledge. This seminar explores the role of tacit knowledge in the transfer and reinvention of complex, dual-use technologies — in this case, pressurized heavy water reactors — and the implications of the generation of this tacit knowledge for technology control.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYucOGgpj4iG9ChfkgqbBwsu3OKLDyJ6Uwh 

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Foreign Agents Registration Act in Historical Perspective

    Thu., Apr. 22, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Ashley Serpa, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    In this seminar, the speaker will discuss the Foreign Agents Registration Act of 1938 (FARA)’s history, from its inception as a tool to combat Nazi propaganda in the WWII-era to its use against suspected communists in the early Cold War. She will also discuss the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's investigation on foreign agents in the 1960s, which inspired the last successful FARA amendment, to help scholars and policymakers understand why so many proposed amendments failed and FARA proved ineffective in the decades following.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAvdumhrDoqEtIim84pzzBIbyZEKNCAMp42

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare

    Thu., Apr. 15, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Associate, International Security Program

    In her new book, the speaker challenges the claim that winning "hearts and minds" is critical to successful counterinsurgency campaigns. Good governance, this conventional wisdom holds, gains the besieged government popular support, denies support to the insurgency, and enables military and political victory. Hazelton argues that major counterinsurgent successes since World War II have resulted not through democratic reforms but rather through the use of military force against civilians and the co-optation of rival elites.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Please register before the event:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcudOytrzovGtL_lCnvAJzYNe5X0RwkVgKY 

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Lyautey in Morocco: Contemporary Considerations

    Thu., Apr. 8, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Jamil Musa, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Marshal Hubert Lyautey served as France's first Resident-General in Rabat from 1912–1925 and set the tone for the French Protectorate in Morocco from 1912–1956. Lyautey's principles of population-centric warfare would form the foundations for the French doctrine de la guerre révolutionnaire (DGR)—doctrine of revolutionary war—in the mid-20th century and later have a veiled influence upon American counterinsurgency (COIN) in the early 21st century.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpcOugrTorHtBRoA4VXMFgF5QGoe0PnDhj 

  • A Kurdish woman taking off the burqa imposed by the Islamic State after escaping into the YPG-controlled area.

    Shervan Derwish and Jack Shanine

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Contending Futures in the 21st-Century Middle East: Ideology and the Emergent Political Formations of ISIS, Kurdistan-Iraq, and Kurdistan-Syria

    Thu., Apr. 1, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Huseyin Rasit, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Despite all the misery they cause, breakdowns of existing states also create ample political opportunities for new actors to rise. This is why, among all the destruction witnessed in Syria and Iraq in the 20th century, new political entities that exercise authority in regions effectively out of reach of their central governments have emerged. The seminar will focus on three: Kurdistan-Syria, Kurdistan-Iraq, and the Islamic State. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcld--prjgpEtHQ0htp9TQScs6tNWQJbFLz 

  • A YPJ fighter replaces the ISIS flag with one from the all-female force in Baghuz, Syria. The YPJ and YPG are core components of the Syrian Democratic Forces.

    Facebook/The Women’s Revolution in Rojava

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    From the Siege of Sinjar to the Battle for Baghuz: The Syrian Kurds, the United States, and Their Shared Fight Against ISIS

    Thu., Mar. 25, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: John Holland-McCowan, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Since the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and their affiliated People's Protection Units (YPG) fighting forces gained world-wide attention with their role in rescuing the Yazidis on Sinjar Mountain in August of 2014, academics and policymakers have sought to understand these controversial, intertwined, and severely understudied organizations.  To better understand what underpinned the PYD, the YPG, and the SDF’s success during this period, the speaker will present a history of the Syrian Kurds, their place within the Syrian civil war, as well as discuss his doctoral research’s other key findings.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwtf-GrqD8vGtVBS8UgEHr3gthdixHaZNAv 

  • President Trump during his June 1, 2017 announcement to leave the international Paris Agreement.

    White House Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Opting Out: How Treaty Withdrawal Shapes Cooperation Among States

    Thu., Mar. 18, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Averell Schmidt, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    The past few years have witnessed a wave of states withdrawing from multilateral agreements as wide-ranging as the European Union, International Criminal Court, Paris Climate Agreement, and Open Skies Treaty. These developments have prompted fears of new arms races, the unraveling of other treaties, and the broader decline of the so-called liberal international order. This seminar will explain how treaty withdrawal shapes cooperation among states by exploring patterns of treaty ratification and withdrawal during the 1945–2010 time period.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUudu6hrzsiHtBv-Wj-TswEJ9aRcVqQOytW 

  • Members of the public tour the Atoms For Peace mobile exhibit. The program was launched under President Eisenhower to supply equipment and information to schools, hospitals and research institutions.

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Light Water Capitalism: Nonproliferation and U.S. Global Power

    Thu., Mar. 11, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Jayita Sarkar, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    How do the exports of U.S. power reactors relate to nonproliferation, global capitalism, and U.S. empire? And what does that tell us about the dominance by design of U.S. government and businesses in the decolonized world, where they promised development but delivered debt? This seminar pursues this inquiry through investigating the role of the light water reactor as an instrument of U.S. nonproliferation policy from the mid-1950s until the end of the 1980s.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMscOyspz0uHdDEEReU3VaamAmpD7qRPMrO

  • Tents in one of the IDP camps in Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria

    Gbemisola Abiola Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Arena of Displacement: Why Emplacement Matters in the Study of African Mobilities

    Thu., Mar. 4, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Gbemisola Abiola, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Boko Haram's violent campaign for an Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria has led to the displacement of a staggering number of people from their homes. Emerging from this are swaths of internally displaced persons (IDPs) who live in conditions of precarity and on the margins of established communities. This seminar will focus on how IDPs who resettle in disparate displacement sites: camps, settlements, and host-communities, aspire to constitute themselves as emplaced subjects.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYud-6sqz8sH9EmVRhNdKLVh8nSn16xoQoi

  • Political cartoon by Louis Dalrymple depicting Theodore Roosevelt as 'The World's Constable,' standing between Europe and Latin America with a truncheon labeled 'The New Diplomacy.'

    Public Domain/Louis Dalrymple

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Bull Moose and the Bear: Theodore Roosevelt and the Deep Origins of Russian Disinformation

    Thu., Feb. 25, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Andrew Porwancher, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    During Theodore Roosevelt's presidency, Jews in the Russian Empire were subjected to brutal pogroms that claimed thousands of lives. Americans rallied behind the embattled Jewish community and pressed Roosevelt to take action on the global stage. Russia, in turn, fed lies to the press in the United States in a bid to manipulate the public and the president. This seminar explores this little-known episode in U.S. history and considers its implications for Russian-American relations today.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMkceigqzkqG9A2-Hs9abdZvs09WSov1leh C

  • Extracted From an ISIS video message: "Strike [Their] Necks — Wilayat al Iraq" (May 2020)

    ISIS Video

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Veterans, Novices, and Patterns of Rebel Recruitment

    Thu., Feb. 18, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Evan Perkoski, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do insurgents recruit experienced fighters at some times and untrained novices at others? Research suggests that insurgent organizations place a premium on committed members who demonstrate political devotion. But research also suggests that groups are willing to compromise on commitment when compelled by other priorities. The speaker will introduce and evaluate a theory with a case study of Al Qaeda in Iraq and its successor, the Islamic State.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here: 
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwlduGqrjkoHNfmZBpGFmPUnDxyc_drOxen

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Cyber Power: Measuring Capability and Intent in Cyberspace

    Thu., Feb. 11, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Anina Schwarzenbach, Non-Resident Fellow, Cyber Project

    Cyber power is commonly understood to be the ability of an actor to conduct cyber operations to disable adversaries' infrastructure and defend against threats. However, drawing conclusions about the level of a state's cyber power based solely on these operations is a misrepresentation of the full scope of states' capabilities and objectives in cyberspace.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here: 
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwqfuyspjsiGNW6rnoR3yIAi-lVGu4U7l-X

  • A U.S. flag flies over a base in Syria. In conjunction with partner forces, Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve - عملية العزم الصلب forces defeat Daesh in designated areas of Syria.

    U.S. Army Photo/Sgt. Kyle Alvarez

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Cooperative Coercion: Explaining (Un)Reliability of State-Sponsored Armed Groups

    Thu., Feb. 4, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Sara Plana, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar examines how states control proxy non-state armed groups they sponsor in foreign civil wars. It outlines the tools available to state sponsors to shape the behavior of proxy groups, why states choose some tools over others, and why some of those tools do not work as intended. The speaker adapts insights from coercion and alliance management scholarship to show how the goals state sponsors pursue through their proxies can affect their willingness to punish their proxies or abandon them altogether. This seminar will draw on original evidence from the United States' relationship to the Syrian Democratic Forces from 2014 to the present.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYqc-utqz8rHdEWriZ9rVCwQ_eYLWEB7trR

  • President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad makes a public speech at Columbia University in New York City, 24 September 2007.

    Wikimedia CC/Daniella Zalcman

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Causes and Consequences of Public Cueing in Nuclear Decision-Making

    Thu., Jan. 28, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speakers: Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Associate, Project on Managing the Atom; Ariel Petrovics, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    This seminar seeks to examine the causes and consequences of public involvement in nuclear programs in two parts: first, exploring why some leaders involve the public in nuclear discussions, and then assessing shifts in public opinion in response to such cueing. Together, these  parts can help better understand when and how domestic publics can affect the trajectory of their states' nuclear programs.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here: 
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEpceGprj0qHtYbTdT-_mgWIZVU_VNPqtZa

  • Cartoon depicting the application of the "water cure" by United States Army soldiers on a Filipino. In the background soldiers representing various European nations look on smiling. The Europeans say, "Those pious Yankees can't throw stones at us any more", meaning that the USA no longer has the moral standing to criticize European colonial practices. Cover of Life magazine, Vol. 39, #1021 first published on May 22, 1902

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Recurring Nightmare: The Endurance of American Torture

    Thu., Jan. 21, 2021 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: William d'Ambruoso, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    What explains the United States' repeated turn to torture as an interrogation method in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaigns? Using illustrations from the Philippine-American War through the post-2001 war on terror, this seminar shows that actors seek methods that are simultaneously nasty enough to be effective and sufficiently mild-sounding to evade condemnation.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register before the seminar here: 
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJ0odu2hqjMrHNQRt9FUJHlhDsvTDEgtzl3W

  • London. Westminster Bridge and House of Parliament. Postcard, c.1910

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Peace, Retrenchment, and Reform: Grand Strategy and Britain's Liberal Empire, 1846–1914

    Thu., Dec. 17, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Graeme Thompson, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Liberal ideas of foreign policy and international order helped to shape the British Empire in the 19th and 20th centuries. From 1846, the Pax Britannica rested on an integrated world system characterized by naval supremacy, free trade, and increasing globalization. Yet after 1870, the geopolitical context shifted rapidly as Britain's "liberal empire" faced rising economic and military competitors, notably imperial Germany. How did liberal politicians and intellectuals grapple with the challenge to British global power? Could the catastrophe of the First World War have been avoided? Focusing on Prime Minister William Ewart Gladstone (1809–1898), this seminar outlines liberal attempts to articulate and implement a grand strategy of restraint. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAvduqpqTwiHNSoXA6xfGs_yZYtCrfN_H9H

  • Vera Micheles Dean, research director of the Foreign Policy Association.

    University of Rochester Archives

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Women and the Making of the U.S. Foreign Policy Community

    Thu., Dec. 10, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: David Allen, Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft Fellow, International Security Program

    Who made the foreign policy community in the United States, and why does the answer matter? Scholars have traditionally looked to the men clustered around the Council on Foreign Relations, the Rockefeller and Carnegie philanthropies, and the Ivy League faculties to find the roots of the foreign policy "elite" or "establishment" in the years after World War I.  But this seminar will show that this focus has obscured the absolute centrality of progressive white women in the making of the U.S. foreign policy community, particularly those former suffragists, trained scholars, and expert activists who helped to build what was then the most prominent internationalist institution in the country, the Foreign Policy Association. 

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUrf-2grDMtGdRFmZ5NQobCBYkvAqyvjzcJ

  • Demonstrators wave flags and chant in Nepalese, near the Thamel shopping area of Kathmandu, Nepal. There was no violence at this point but off image (behind the camera) there is a heavy military/police presence, 1 Apr. 2004.   Later in the day, low degree violence took place involving the police/military and protesters.

    Wikimedia CC/Rich

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Violence After Victory: Explaining Human Rights Outcomes After Conflict Termination

    Thu., Dec. 3, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Christopher Wiley Shay,  Research Fellow, International Security Program

    What stops human rights abuse? Christopher Shay explores this question in the context of conflict terminations, moments when leaders can plausibly turn away from repressive tactics. Many leaders fail to seize this opportunity, however, even in cases of democratization. Drawing on cross-national quantitative findings and qualitative research conducted in Nepal, Shay argues that these leaders' options are often constrained by powerful security institutions—and that civil-military relations are critical to understanding human rights outcomes.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYocuiqrjopGNTxGJiOOsiUiylmF52NRnC5

  • Military Police of the Armed Forces in Cali, Colombia

    Secretariat of Security and Justice, Cali, Colombia

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Fighting Crime with an Iron Fist: An Experimental Evaluation of Militarized Policing in Cali, Colombia

    Thu., Nov. 12, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    SpeakersMichael Weintraub, Associate Professor, Universidad de los Andes Bogotá, Colombia; Robert A. Blair, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University

    Governments across the developing world rely on the armed forces for domestic policing operations. Advocates of these "mano dura" (iron fist) policies view them as a necessary measure to control violent crime, while detractors claim they undermine human rights without reducing crime. The speakers experimentally evaluate a militarized policing intervention in Cali, Colombia, the country's third largest city and among its most violent.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwoduyrrzksHtcUaM2Dj9vKMhnSG3pxDPBq

  • Secretary of State George Schultz testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about the Reagan administration's current policies toward South Africa and proposed sanctions against their government, July 23, 1986.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Buchanan Channel: How the Pro-Apartheid Movement Undercut the Reagan Administration's Anti-Sanctions Effort, 1985–1987

    Thu., Nov. 5, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Augusta Dell'Omo, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    This seminar examines how the institutional failure of the Reagan White House to invigorate a sterile sanctions debate created a window of opportunity for pro–South Africa conservatives. Led by White House Director of the Office of Communications Patrick Buchanan, a cadre of pro–South Africa Congressmen, and South Africa's surrogates, the pro-apartheid movement injected a white supremacist dialogue into the White House's discussions on sanctions policy that fundamentally undercut the efforts of the White House to rally a successful veto defense

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJYpfuGsqT4jGtfNZ081oEvhhMGJSOugoCMh

  • A deserted classroom in Pripyat, Ukraine, three decades after the Chernobyl disaster, 10 March 2013.

    Wikimedia CC/DmytroChapman

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Recent Lessons for the Recovery from Acts of Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism

    Thu., Oct. 29, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Julius Weitzdörfer, Junior Professor of East Asian Law, Hagen University, Germany

    Risks stemming from CBRN-terrorism (chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear) are characterized by relatively low frequency, yet extraordinary potential impact. To help reduce the enormous potential costs associated with radiological and nuclear terrorism, drawing on cases from Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, this seminar seeks to derive and improve recovery policies towards a well-rounded, holistic approach to mitigating the risks of nuclear and radiological terrorism.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJAoc-yhrjwrEtEXOUTdHqGhMvLscB5VO38u

  • Tactical High Energy Laser / Advanced Concept Technology Demonstrator, 20 August 2005

    U.S. Army Space & Missile Defense Command

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Imagining the Unimaginable: War, Weapons, and Procurement Politics

    Thu., Oct. 22, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Sanne Verschuren, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Rather than assuming convergence in countries' military capabilities, this seminar examines why and how countries decide to develop different weapon capabilities within similar domains of warfare. To answer these questions, this seminar will explore the role of ideas and institutional bargaining in shaping decisions about military technology. This talk will subsequently apply the theory to the development of missile defense in the post–Cold War period.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUrcOmtqD0jE9R3_UZriEHVVRxUjR8q8HZs

  • President Richard Nixon Bidding Farewell to South Vietnam's President Nguyen Van Thieu at the Door to the Air Force One Helicopter, Flanked by an Honor Guard on the Helipad of the Western White House, La Casa Pacifica, in San Clemente, California, 3 April 1973

    White House Photo Office Collection

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Client's Dilemma: Great Powers, Counterinsurgent Governments, and Resistance to Reforms

    Thu., Oct. 15, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Associate, International Security Program

    This seminar presents a theoretical mechanism explaining the hierarchy of interests the counterinsurgent government considers and the options available to it when a great power intervener insists on reforms. It demonstrates this mechanism in a paired set of cases, South Vietnam under President Ngo Dinh Diem, when the United States was supporting the government in an advisory role, and under President Nguyen Van Thieu, when the United States was withdrawing from the war as quickly as possible.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJApceCpqD8oHdCDM-o59vdrub4glAuUoFqc

  • The G20 Summit working lunch, 7 July 2017.

    White House Photo/Shealah Craighead

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    China's Rise in Europe: A Threat to U.S. Hegemony?

    Thu., Oct. 8, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Thomas Cavanna, Assistant Research Professor, Center for Strategic Studies, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University

    After decades of engagement, European leaders have recently adopted an increasingly defensive stance vis-à-vis China. Experts are thoroughly debating the implications of this pushback for the United States. But less attention has been given to the deeper historical and geopolitical dimensions of the matter: What does China's rise in Europe mean for U.S. grand strategy?

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting:  https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcrcOGqqzsiHdOyZkV41u_yqYbdbXbuDWiN

  • Chinese President XI Jinping & Russian President Vladimir Putin at a gala evening dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and China, 5-June-2019.

    Wikimedia CC/kremlin.ru

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Russia-China Relations in the Age of COVID-19: Strategic Partners, Extra-Regional Rivals

    Thu., Oct. 1, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Samuel Ramani, D.Phil. Candidate in International Relations, St. Antony's College, University of Oxford

    This seminar will examine this contradiction in the Russia-China relationship and assess whether lessons from the Cold War–era Sino-Soviet Split can help predict the partnership's future direction. It will also examine how these contradictory trends in Russia-China relations could impact U.S. foreign policy and assess whether Russia and China chiefly pose a combined threat or two disparate challenges to U.S. hegemony in the post-pandemic era.

    Everyone is welcome to join us via Zoom! Register in advance for this meeting: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEtduCrqTkvGNfXBx_5jgfRvTV0s5aAFKgP

  • A nighttime view of the Lujiazui peninsula of Shanghai, seen from the Bund, 25 November 2019. Lujiazui is Shanghai’s financial district.

    Wikimedia CC/Phizz

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    When Fast-Growing Great Powers Slow Down: Historical Evidence and Implications for China

    Thu., Sep. 24, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Michael Beckley, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Tufts University

    Most discussion on U.S.-China policy focuses on the implications of a rising China. This presentation, by contrast, considers some of the challenges that could be posed by an economically stagnating China. How would a severe and sustained economic growth slowdown affect China's foreign policy and military modernization? Would military conflict between China and the United States become more or less likely? This presentation addresses these questions by comparing China to past rising great powers that experienced major economic slowdowns.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/j/96550562494?pwd=REx3b1RWaVYxZWdhVW5Hbk9Ra3JEQT09

  • Cascade of gas centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium in the U.S. gas centrifuge plant in Piketon, Ohio, 1984.

    DOE Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    A-Bomb for the People: Domestic Drivers of Nuclear Latency

    Thu., June 4, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speakers: Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom; Ariel Petrovics, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Though only nine states in the world today are believed to possess their own nuclear weapons, many more states have the capability to pursue a nuclear bomb if they choose. This capability – or nuclear latency – has recently drawn attention in international relations scholarship, which largely focuses on the effects of latency on international deterrence, compellence, and bargaining. While this research helps explain the security benefits and motives that may drive states to pursue nuclear capabilities short of the bomb, it has yet to determine how domestic politics play into these considerations. This project explores how public opinion factors into state decisions to pursue or forgo latent nuclear capabilities. In doing so, it seeks to offer new insight into when and why latency can become a salient topic to domestic audiences, and the implications of these domestic drivers for the future of nonproliferation.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwuc-qrqj4pG90vSX2_VoG35zaE6L6mkPQt

  • A nuclear advanced designated marksman assists in a launch facility exercise.

    USAF/Beau Wade, 341st Missile Wing Public Affairs

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    A Sense of Purpose: The Bedrock of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent

    Thu., May 21, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Lt. Col. William C. Smith, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    How do leaders motivate Airmen to give their best to perform this unsung duty, day after day, for years at a time? A recent study found clarity of purpose to be the basis of verifiable mission success, purposeful leadership, and esprit de corps, which suggests that clearly communicating the higher purpose of their work to Airmen would help them find meaning in their tasks. A sense that their work is meaningful, the result of internalizing a higher purpose, underpins the safety and security cultures critical to a successful nuclear enterprise. The speaker will build on their findings by introducing five leadership concepts, identifying the particular importance each plays in providing a credible nuclear deterrent, and offering an effective method for implementation. These principles have broad application to organizational leadership as a whole, and if collectively and effectively implemented, would provide the bedrock for safe, secure, and effective nuclear operations.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEvdO-sqT4oH9VljkvSrgNBBGATIdqGjGBY

  • First meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the Review Conference of the Parties to the NPT, United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland, 1 April 1974.

    UN Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    After the Negotiations: Understanding Multilateral Nuclear Arms Control

    Thu., May 14, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Stephen Herzog, Stanton Nuclear Security Predoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Arms control has languished as a field of academic inquiry, despite a renaissance in nuclear security studies and significant advances in understanding proliferation. Few studies have attempted to emulate past academic shaping of arms control agreements and outcomes, with particularly limited emphasis on multilateral efforts. This is a problematic situation as the world looks beyond bilateral U.S.–Russian arms control toward the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT), Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (MENWFZ), and even the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The speaker attempts to fill this gap by offering a theory of state entry into multilateral nuclear arms control agreements.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar:
    https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJEtc-mrqz8jH9coGNTF7bloNM75UeKB3bJW

  • The USS Pennsylvania, a nuclear-armed Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Nuclear Platform Diversification: A New Dataset

    Thu., May 7, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speakers: Giles David Arceneaux, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Kyungwon Suh, Ph.D. candidate, Department of Political Science, Syracuse University

    The deterrent capacity of a state's nuclear forces is dependent upon the platforms and delivery systems that constitute the arsenal. The mere possession of nuclear weapons does not provide a robust deterrent and nuclear states cannot credibly deter potential adversaries with nuclear threats in the absence of adequate delivery capabilities. The project presents a new dataset that measures the possession of seven nuclear delivery platforms across all nuclear powers from 1945–2019, including: submarine-launched missiles, strategic land-mobile missiles, strategic solid-fuel missiles, nuclear cruise missiles, multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, long-range ballistic missiles, and tactical nuclear weapons.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcsf-6uqTwoHdZZJ3qqoP1Ohy78rsXBc5en

  • Ruins of Nikolaevsk in the Russian Far East, June 1920

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Massacre and Memory: Analyzing Violence in the Russian Civil War

    Thu., Apr. 30, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Paul Behringer, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Massacres are a common occurrence during times of war. Although the reasons vary as to why and the context within which this type of killing transpires, massacres also share certain characteristics across space and time. The greatest atrocity of the Russian Civil War in the Far East occurred in 1920 at Nikolaevsk, a town of 15,000 residents located near the mouth of the Amur River. By examining those who perpetrated the massacre, the types of violence they deployed, the victims who died, and how observers chose to document it, scholars and policymakers can understand what often seems at first glance to be senseless violence.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJcuce2uqjssGtQlipRsIG2OTS0adywtkgT-

  • Aftermath of the 1981 Red Army Faction bombing of U.S. Air Forces Europe headquarters at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, August 1981.

    USAF Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Terrorism and Political Legitimacy

    Thu., Apr. 23, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Anina Schwarzenbach, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program

    Nowadays, the availability of large databases on terrorist events allows researchers to shed light on patterns of terrorist activities and provides for new insights on how and where terrorism proliferates. Still, scholars and policymakers know little as to why in some countries, and periods in time, terrorist activities are much more frequent than in others. As for now, popular explanations on the root causes of terrorism, such as poverty, have resulted in inconsistent empirical evidence. Other concepts widely applied in political science and criminology, such as approaches drawn from political legitimacy, have been neglected in the study of terrorism.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJUqcuGsrTwrH9fnixp6gfngWf4DMq5itcO4

  • Buccaneer aircraft of 800 Squadron from HMS EAGLE on patrol over Aden airfield during the withdrawal of British troops on 29 November 1967.

    Imperial War Museum

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Lessons in Retrenchment: The Legacy of the United Kingdom's Withdrawal from "East of Suez"

    Thu., Apr. 16, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: William James, Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft Fellow, International Security Program

    Why did Britain withdraw from its military bases in the Persian Gulf, Malaysia, and Singapore? The current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, believes that the drawdown was a mistake, taken rashly in January 1968 as pro-European Cabinet members seized on a financial crisis to end the "East of Suez" role. This interpretation — that retrenchment was the result of Britain's weak economic position and domestic politics — aligns with most of the historiography. In this seminar, that view will be questioned. Based on extensive archival research, the speaker offers an alternative explanation on the timing and motives for the withdrawal. The talk will conclude with policy recommendations for current practitioners in London, who are charting a return "East of Suez" under the post-Brexit banner of "Global Britain."

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Please register in advance for this seminar: https://harvard.zoom.us/meeting/register/v5MocuCqqzIi2Lg5FwAv24-wwUO2wr5XXg

  • President Donald J. Trump signs an EO on Iran Sanctions in the Green Room at Trump National Golf Club, August 5, 2018, in Bedminster Township, New Jersey.

    White House Photo/Shealah Craighead

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Turning Paper Screws: The Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions in International Security

    Thu., Apr. 9, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Ariel Petrovics, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Economic sanctions are one of the most common coercive tools of foreign policy, used regularly in an effort to change target state behavior. Yet despite their versatility and prevalence in international relations, sanctions are at best an unreliable tool of foreign policy. Indeed, many of the most important and publicized sanction attempts have failed to produce any desired change in the target. Existing literature on the effectiveness of sanctions has largely focused on whether or not sanctions eventually succeed, but this overlooks the arguable more policy relevant questions of when and under what conditions sanctions are effective tools of statecraft. The speaker's research  finds that sanctions with the greatest implications for international security such as those that combat nuclear proliferation or foreign military aggression fail even more catastrophically than their less salient counterparts.

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom! Click here. Meeting ID number: 810311271

  • The Syrian Democratic Forces announce an offensive north of Deir ez-Zor, 9 September 2017.

    VOA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    An Enigmatic Insurgency: An Analysis of the Syrian Kurds' Campaign from mid-2014 to mid-2017

    Thu., Apr. 2, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: John Holland-McCowan, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In the U.S.-led coalition's campaign against ISIS in Syria, the controversial and understudied Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have served as the tip of the spear. This seminar will present what underpinned the Syrian Kurds' remarkable success from mid 2014 to mid 2017 before discussing the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East

    Everyone is welcome to join us online via Zoom!  Click here. Meeting ID number: 596848662

  • Bernard Fall with C Company, 1/9 Marines, February 20, 1967

    USMC Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Bernard Fall and Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare in Indochina

    Thu., Mar. 26, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker: Nathaniel L. Moir, Ernest May Postdoctoral Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    This seminar investigates how Vietnam War scholar and Indochina expert, Bernard Fall (1926–1967), developed his conception of Vietnamese Revolutionary Warfare and how he applied this knowledge to his analysis of the First and Second Indochina Wars.

    Please join us online via Zoom!  Click here.  Meeting name: International Security Program - March 26 2020

  • A mujahadeen guard walks with U.S. military members of the Afghanistan Panjshir Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) during a site visit Mar. 5, 2009, in support of Operation Enduring Freedom.

    USAF/Staff Sgt. James L. Harper Jr.

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Failed Assumptions and Missed Opportunities: The American Way of War and Its Implications in Afghanistan

    Thu., Mar. 19, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Online

    Speaker:  Lt. Col. Patrick Kolesiak, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will be online. Please join us remotely via Zoom!  Click here to join.

    As America pursues a negotiated peace deal with the Taliban and Afghan government, it is critical to return to analyze how a war that was supposed to last mere months turned into "America's Longest War." The failure of U.S. policy in Afghanistan was catastrophic misalignment between a rapidly emerging strategy in Afghanistan and the triad of "ends, ways, and means." This talk seeks to specifically explore how a divergence between a "Washington Way of War" and a "U.S. Military Way of Battle" led to failed assumptions, mismatched objectives, and missed opportunities. The speaker will explore six key mistakes made during the waning days of combat operations and the movement into post-conflict stability operations.

    This seminar will be online. Please join us remotely via Zoom!  Click here to join.

  • Attack on and capture of the Crête-à-Pierrot fort, Haiti (March 4–24, 1802). Original illustration by Auguste Raffet, engraving by Hébert.

    Histoire de Napoleon, M. de Norvins, 1839, page 239/Auguste Raffet (1804–1860)

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    From Revolution to Recognition: Assessing the Effect of Proslavery Ideology on British and U.S. Isolation of Haiti, 1804–1862

    Thu., Mar. 12, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Lindsay Hundley, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will be online. Please join us remotely via Zoom!  Instructions below.

    In recent years, the world has increasingly witnessed international conflict along ideological fault lines. Western policymakers warn that authoritarian countries like Russia and China are seeking to exploit divisions within democratic societies to promote autocratic tendencies, while for decades, authoritarian countries have accused the West of doing the same—of manufacturing domestic uprisings as a way to force liberalism upon them. While history is filled with examples of conflicts along these types of ideological lines, there is little consensus among scholars about whether ideology has any effect on relations between states. This presentation will focus in on British and U.S. reactions to the Haitian Revolution to advance scholars' and policymakers' understanding of the relationship between ideology and international conflict.

    Please join us via Zoom! Click here to join.

  • Map of Europe in 1700, based on an image in G. M. Trevelyan's England Under Queen Anne Volume I.

    Wikimedia CC/Rebel Redcoat

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Diplomats, Elites, and Hegemony: Failures of Global Governance in Historical and Contemporary Perspective

    Thu., Mar. 5, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jonah Stuart Brundage, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do certain states, at certain points in time, establish leadership and governance over regional or global systems of states? This seminar contributes to explaining this process of hegemony by emphasizing cases in which it failed to occur despite the presence of the necessary military and economic conditions. In particular, the speaker will present a historical case study of British diplomacy in eighteenth-century Europe, showing that Britain failed to become a regional hegemon at this time despite its unrivalled military and economic capabilities.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs

    Thu., Feb. 27, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Peter Andreas, John Hay Professor of International Studies, Brown University; Author, Killer High: A History of War in Six Drugs

    There is growing alarm over how drugs empower terrorists, insurgents, militias, and gangs. But by looking back not just years and decades but centuries, Peter Andreas reveals that the drugs-conflict nexus is actually an old story, and that powerful states have been its biggest beneficiaries.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The USS New Jersey fires a salvo from its 16"/50 guns during a deployment off the coast of Beirut, Lebanon, 9 January 1984

    U.S. Navy'Ron Garrison

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Warkeeping: Intervention in Lebanon, 1982–1984

    Thu., Feb. 20, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Emily Whalen, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    This presentation examines a period of direct U.S. participation in Lebanon's war, the eighteen months during which U.S. Marines were deployed in Beirut as part of a Multinational Peacekeeping Force (MNF).  Existing scholarship on the MNF intervention in Lebanon tends to focus on the infamous barracks bombing of October 1983, overlooking how the securitization and militarization of U.S. policy in Lebanon changed both the Lebanese state and the U.S. foreign policy process. Juxtaposing discussions in Washington with events on the ground in Beirut during the months preceding the barracks bombing, this presentation uses the intervention in Lebanon to cast light on the relationship between intentions and outcomes in U.S. foreign policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Argentina's Mauricio Macri alongside Germany's Angela Merkel and China's Xi Jinping at the G20 2017 summit, 7 July 2017.

    Wikimedia CC/Casa Rosada

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Burning (Atlantic) Bridges? U.S. Grand Strategy and the Rise of China in Europe

    Thu., Feb. 13, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Thomas Cavanna, Visiting Assistant Professor, Center for Strategic Studies, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Is the United States losing Europe to China? What could that mean from a grand strategic perspective? Those questions may appear far-fetched given the huge influence that America has exerted over Europe since 1945, the benefits that it has provided to its allies, and the latter's recent push back against Beijing and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yet the China challenge is real and emerges in a time of major uncertainty over Washington's intentions and capabilities.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Fiery Cross Reef, Spratly Islands, South China Sea, in May 2015. Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Fiery Cross Reef.

    U.S. Navy

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Law as a Battlefield: The United States, China, and Global Escalation of Lawfare

    Thu., Feb. 6, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jill Goldenziel,  Associate Professor, Marine Corps University, Quantico, Virginia

    This presentation will argue that the United States needs to develop a Lawfare strategy to combat its adversaries. It will first define the concept of Lawfare and discuss how its use has evolved and escalated in recent years. It will illustrate this phenomenon by examining three different types of Lawfare between China and the United States or its allies: international arbitration over China's claims to the Spratly Islands, China's non-uniformed maritime militias, and litigation involving the United States and Huawei.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Visionary or Follower? Rethinking the Foreign Policy of Theodore Roosevelt

    Thu., Jan. 30, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Aroop Mukharji, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Admirers of Theodore Roosevelt's foreign policy tend to point to his realist sensibilities, his acute awareness of the global balance of power, his reluctance to use force, and his velvet glove (and iron fist). Critics cast him as a reckless blowhard who misread the world around him, issued excessive threats, and kicked off a slew of heavy-handed interventions in Latin America, souring the United States' relationship with its hemisphere for decades to come. Both camps, however, seem to agree that he was his own man: a fiercely independent leader with a well-defined mission. In this seminar, that belief is questioned.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Arrival ceremony welcoming King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, 27 May 1971. Pictured left to right: King Faisal Ibn Abd Al-Aziz of Saudi Arabia, President Nixon, and Mrs. Nixon.

    NARA/Robert L. Knudsen

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    A Diplomatic Counterrevolution: The Transformation of the U.S.–Middle East Alliance System in the 1970s

    Thu., Jan. 23, 2020 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Carl Forsberg, Ernest May Fellowship in History & Policy, International Security Program

    Two developments have defined Middle Eastern international politics in the 2010s: first, the Arab spring and its failures, and second, polarization between Iran and a coalition of Arab states allied with the United States. This seminar locates the historical logics behind these developments in the regional transformations of the 1970s. During that decade, the regimes in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and imperial Iran collaboratively forged a diplomatic counterrevolution with U.S. support. Animated by a fear of alliances between the Soviet Union, revolutionary regimes, and the domestic left, these states advanced a new regional order designed to reinforce the security of authoritarian rule. The counterrevolutionary coalitions and strategies developed in the 1970s persisted after the Iranian Revolution, as U.S. allies pivoted to countering Iran and, more recently, the 2011 Arab spring.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Informal border crossing between Colombia and Ecuador

    Annette Idler

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Borderland Battles: Violence, Crime, and Governance at the Edges of Colombia's War

    Thu., Dec. 19, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Annette Idler, Visiting Scholar, Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University

    Annette Idler will discuss the findings of her timely new book, Borderland Battles: Violence, Crime, and Governance at the Edges of Colombia’s War (Oxford University Press, 2019). The post–cold war era has seen an unmistakable trend toward the proliferation of violent non-state groups-variously labeled terrorists, rebels, paramilitaries, gangs, and criminals-near borders in unstable regions especially. Applying a "borderland lens" to security dynamics, in Borderland Battles, the speaker examines the micro-dynamics among violent non-state groups and finds striking patterns: borderland spaces consistently intensify the security impacts of how these groups compete for territorial control, cooperate in illicit cross-border activities, and replace the state in exerting governance functions. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A crewmember on a Chinese trawler uses a grapple hook in an apparent attempt to snag the towed acoustic array of the military Sealift Command ocean surveillance ship USNS Impeccable, 8 March 2009. Impeccable was conducting survey operations in the exclusive economic zone of China 75 miles south of Hainan Island when it was harassed by 5 Chinese vessels.

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Contest for the "Free Sea": Variation and Evolution in the Global Maritime Order

    Thu., Dec. 12, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Rachel Esplin Odell, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In the growing peacetime naval competition between the United States and China, the divergence in the two countries' interpretations of maritime law has become a locus of contention. Both states maintain that they prioritize "freedom of navigation" (hangxing ziyou) and have done nothing to obstruct it, and each side insists that its position is firmly grounded in international law. The broader context often missing in discussions of this dynamic is that states' interpretations of key provisions in the international law of the sea related to coastal state jurisdiction vary widely. This seminar will present findings from a new global dataset of state's maritime jurisdictional claims as a window into understanding the range of this variation. The seminar will then present a theory to explain patterns of change and stasis in state's interpretations of the law of the sea over time, accompanied by empirical evidence from field research conducted in four country case studies: the United States, Japan, China, and India.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • China's maritime claim (red) and UNCLOS exclusive economic zones (blue) in the South China Sea. Disputed islands (green) separate from UNCLOS.

    Wikimedia CC/Goren tek-en

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    When David Challenges Goliath: Insubordination from Smaller States, Rising Power Status Dissatisfaction, and Conflict

    Thu., Dec. 5, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Alex Yu-Ting Lin, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    When do rising powers become dissatisfied with their status, and how does such dissatisfaction motivate conflict? Conventional wisdom suggests that the rising powers' status grievances are mostly triggered by the actions of the existing great powers. Moving beyond this conventional wisdom, the speaker examines how perceived insubordination from smaller states makes a rising power become insecure about its status, thereby generating the pressure for conflict between the rising power and the existing great powers. Furthermore, the speaker shows that conflicts which arise because of perceived insubordination from smaller states have different escalatory logics than the conventional explanations focusing on status competition between great powers. The talk has broader implications for U.S.-China relations, the return of great power politics, and U.S. grand strategy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Protest outside of a Lotte supermarket in Jilin, China, May 2018. The Lotte Group is a South Korean conglomerate which approved a land swap with the South Korean government so that the THAAD anti-missile system could be deployed near Seoul.

    VOA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Commerce and Coercion in Contemporary China

    Thu., Nov. 21, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Kacie Miura, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do some local leaders in China respond to foreign provocations by protecting foreign commerce from diplomatic tensions, while others engage in economic retaliation? Understanding this variation is important because whether local leaders are willing to serve as agents of state punishment has implications for China's use of economic coercion. Given China's strong central government, this variation in local leader behavior is surprising, especially during foreign policy crises, when national interests are at stake. To explain local leader participation in economic retaliation, the speaker proposes a theory that draws on the economic incentives and political concerns of local leaders in China. She provides evidence from a recent foreign policy crisis between China and South Korea over the latter's deployment of the THAAD missile defense system.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Scene in the Krupp Gun Works, where Germany's army and navy guns are manufactured, published in 1915.

    Photo from Brown Bros.

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Cui Bono? Business Elites, Regime-Support Coalitions, and Interstate Conflict

    Thu., Nov. 14, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Sirianne Dahlum, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    A long-standing debate revolves around business elites and their role in states' war behavior. Some arguments imply that when business elites have a large influence on policymaking, states turn more belligerent, as business elites encourage military expeditions to open up or protect markets. Contrasting perspectives in the liberal tradition, such as "capitalist-peace" arguments, emphasize that business elites have strong economic incentives to avoid war and thus will have a pacifying effect when they hold political power. Comprehensive tests of these arguments are scarce, and those that exist do not account for the degree to which business elites hold sway over policymaking.  Drawing on new global data on the social composition of regime-support coalitions covering more than 200 years from 1789–the present, the speaker presents evidence on the war behavior of regimes supported by business elites. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Vyacheslav Molotov, Soviet foreign minister, signs the non-aggression pact negotiated between the Soviet Union and Germany at the Kremlin, Moscow. Standing behind him is his German counterpart Joachim von Ribbentrop (left), and Joseph Stalin (2nd from right), 23 August 1939.

    NARA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Distant Friends and Intimate Enemies: Toward a New Theory of Intra-Alliance Fighting

    Thu., Nov. 7, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Vanes Ibric, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do countries with formal alliances engage in armed hostilities against one another? What motivates states to attack their allies? As evidenced by Italy's betrayal of the Central Powers in World War I or the border conflict between Soviet Union and China in 1969, countries with formal alliances have engaged in wars and militarized disputes. The speaker provides a new theoretical framework that distinguishes between alliances in which one state entered the alliance with a strong predisposition to attack its ally (i.e., premeditated fighting) and alliances in which fighting happens as a result of situational changes following the formation of the alliance (i.e., situational fighting).

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Illustration from "NATO Means Peace" booklet (1956)

    NATO

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Free World: The Creation of a U.S. Global Order

    Thu., Oct. 31, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Peter Slezkine, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    By the end of the Second World War, most American policymakers assumed that their country had become inescapably and durably entangled in the affairs of the globe. Half a decade later, they settled on an objective that would determine the direction of their country's international efforts going forward. Throughout the 1950s, as the United States established itself as a permanent player on the global stage, American policymakers pursued the overarching aim of "free world leadership." This seminar will trace the emergence and evolution of the concept of the "free world" in American history, demonstrate its impact on policymakers' understanding of the Cold War and the United States' global role, and investigate the shift to alternative perspectives (including one centered on the "third world") by the end of the 1960s. Finally, the seminar will address how the current U.S. global order has been durably shaped by its original focus on the "free world."

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Map of the countries which signed China's Belt and Road Initiative cooperation documents as of 27 April 2019 (in blue).

    Wikimedia CC/owennson

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Crafting Payoffs: Strategies and Effectiveness of Economic Statecraft

    Thu., Oct. 24, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Audrye Wong, Grand Strategy, Security, & Statecraft Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program

    Economic statecraft — the use of economic tools to pursue political goals — is an important foreign policy strategy for many major powers and has been an increasingly important tool for China. The speaker will provide a theoretical framework to explain the effectiveness of economic statecraft, focusing on positive inducements, which have been relatively understudied. She will argue that effectiveness is influenced by the interaction between two variables: (a) the type of inducement strategy; and (b) the level of public accountability in the target country. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Lexington (CVA-16) underway in the Western Pacific, with Carrier Air Group 21 (CVG-21), on 16 August 1958. Just 8 days later, on 24 August, Communist Chinese artillery began shelling the Nationalist Chinese islands of Quemoy and Matsu, prompting the Blue Ghost's (as Lexington was called) deployment to the Taiwan Straits at various times during the next 4 months, along with other units of the U.S. Seventh Fleet.

    U.S. Navy

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Playing with Fire: Provocation, Signaling, and Unwanted Crisis Escalation

    Thu., Oct. 17, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Hyun-Binn Cho, Postdoctoral  Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    During international crises, states often take costly actions to signal resolve. Such coercive actions, however, can put greater political and psychological pressure on the opponent to counter-escalate. When costly signals are more "provocative," do they make unwanted crisis escalation more likely, or do they make the signal-sender look tough and help induce the opponent to back down? Indeed, why do states sometimes appear to deliberately engage in provocative actions to demonstrate resolve? This seminar addresses these puzzles using game-theoretic analysis and two case studies of crises involving China and the United States.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Violent Riots in the Gaza Strip, 11-May-2018

    Flickr/IDF

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Raising the Threshold: Asymmetric Coercion and Rules of the Game in the Israel-Hamas Conflict

    Thu., Oct. 10, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Daniel Sobelman, Assistant Professor of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

    Drawing on the conflict between Israel and the Hamas-run Gaza Strip since the mid-2000s, this seminar will analyze the dynamics and the strategic implications of intra-war coercion in an asymmetric conflict between an established state and an emerging violent non-state actor. The speaker will examine Hamas's adoption of Hezbollah’s military doctrine and strategic vocabulary and explain the manner in which the Hamas movement has been able to harness its military capabilities to impose and threaten heavier costs on Israel while reducing Israel's freedom of action vis-a-vis the Gaza Strip.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Image of Muammar al-Qaddafi at the Libya/Tunisia border, 7 November 2008

    Wikimedia CC/JPRoger

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Does Instability Help or Hinder Coercion? Re-Evaluating Libya's Reconciliation with the West

    Thu., Oct. 3, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Melissa Willard-Foster, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Vermont

    Contrary to the dominant view that instability makes targets of coercive pressure more likely to concede, the speaker will argue that instability prolongs their resistance. Leaders' policies reflect their domestic political interests, thus, conceding to policy change invites political costs. The more powerful a leader's domestic opposition, the more likely it can benefit when the leader is forced to make a costly concession. Although resistance may be costly too, targets can more easily mitigate these costs than they can convince the challenger to change its demands. As a result, instability is more likely to encourage a target's resistance. The speaker tests her argument on Libya's rapprochement with the West, showing that Qaddafi refused to surrender the Pan Am flight 103 bombing suspects due to domestic political costs. It was only after Qaddafi recovered his power and the United States softened its terms that he complied, which paved the way for the 2003 deal.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Ruling Beyond Empire: The "White Rajahs" of Sarawak, Coercion, and Balancing

    Thu., Sep. 26, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Assistant Professor, Department of Strategy and Policy, U.S. Naval War College

    A now little-known British adventurer named James Brooke ruled absolutely over a substantial territory in Sarawak, on the island of Borneo in what is now Malaysia, in the 19th century. He bequeathed his country to his descendants, who ruled until the last "White Rajah" sold Brooke's Sarawak to the British Crown after World War II. The story of the Brookes of Sarawak is full of tropes from Romantic-era novels, from the prodigal son returning to England unrecognizable from smallpox scars, to battles with pirates and headhunters, to the suicide of a faithful man of business who helps his master perpetrate a fraud and then kills himself out of remorse. Behind the drama are serious questions about how the three "White Rajahs" controlled their multi-ethnic, multi-faith, mountainous, unruly territory for a century. the speaker will argue that the Brooke rajahs used a combination of political accommodation of local political elites and a balancing strategy to build fighting alliances against troublesome challengers to their rule.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Yellow cake uranium is a solid form of uranium oxide produced from uranium ore. Yellow cake must be processed further before it is made into nuclear fuel.

    Wikimedia CC/Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Foreign Skeletons in Nuclear Closets: Implications for Policy and Verification

    Thu., May 23, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Sébastien Philippe, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Most successful nuclear weapons programs have benefited from significant foreign assistance for the acquisition of nuclear materials, sensitive equipment, and know-how. Such assistance is often kept secret, even after states decide to put an end to their nuclear weapons programs or ambitions. This seminar will discuss the policy and verification implications of this source of opacity on the reconstruction of past nuclear military activities as part of non-proliferation or denuclearization agreements.  It will build upon an historical and technical analysis of nuclear assistance between France, Israel, and South Africa and conclude by discussing the impact of discovering previously hidden information on existing policies and ongoing diplomatic processes.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A forklift shovels one-ton containers of mustard gas over the side of a barge somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean in 1964. The Army dumped millions of pounds of chemical warfare agent over decades in this way.

    U.S. Army

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    WMD Disposal, Destruction, and Disarmament: The Reduction of U.S. Chemical and Nuclear Weapon Stockpiles

    Thu., May 16, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker:  Cameron Tracy, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    States often spend vast sums on weapon production, yet have trouble mustering the resources necessary to eliminate stockpiled weapons for arms control and disarmament purposes. Stockpile reductions have proven particularly challenging with respect to weapons of mass destruction, for which weaponizability is embedded in materials rather than assembled devices. Their elimination commonly requires expensive, technologically demanding processes. U.S. chemical weapon and weapons plutonium stockpile reduction efforts provide useful case studies for investigation of the factors governing the success of reductions programs, as they faced similar challenges yet yielded divergent outcomes. This project involves comparative analysis of both reductions programs, focusing on the technical, organizational, and sociopolitical contexts that aided or hindered elimination.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President Barack Obama leaves a meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009.

    White House/Pete Souza

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Promoting or Preventing Democracy? U.S. Foreign Policy and the Bankruptcy of the Ideals-vs-Interests Distinction

    Thu., May 9, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Payam Ghalehdar, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program

    Under what conditions does the United States promote democracy abroad? From Western-style liberal democracy to outright authoritarianism, the historical record of U.S. regime promotion reveals a wide-ranging variation in promoted regime types. According to the standard narrative, this variation stems from a clash between the pursuit of hard-nosed self-interest and democratic values and ideals. This presentation challenges the misleading distinction between interests and ideals, arguing that both democracy promotion and democracy prevention can stem from national security considerations. To shed light on the variation in U.S. regime promotion, the presentation instead focuses on competing beliefs among U.S. foreign policy elites about the link between regime type and regime efficacy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Weekly public audience, Pope Francis, Saint Peter's Square, May 2, 2018.

    Wikimedia CC/Mariordo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The (Im)Morality of Deterrence: Questions for the Pope, Policymakers, and Practitioners

    Thu., May 2, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Tory Kindrick, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Policymakers and theorists have long debated the utility of nuclear deterrence as policy, while philosophers have debated its morality. In 2017, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, Pope Francis, declared the use of nuclear deterrence to be immoral, signing the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in his role as head of state of Vatican City. No nuclear weapons states have as yet signed the treaty. This discussion explores how moral views may facilitate and complicate policy discussion and considers questions for moral authorities, policymakers, and practitioners when contemplating the morality of deterrence.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-Sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Election posters in Israel, April 8, 2019

    Wikimedia CC/Rakoon

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Israeli Elections 2019: Ramifications for Israel, the United States, and the Region

    Thu., Apr. 25, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Chuck Freilich, Senior Fellow, International Security Program

    The speaker,  a former deputy national security adviser in Israel, author of Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change (2018), will discuss the ramifications of Israel's elections for Israel itself, the United States, and the Middle East. Among the issues addressed: the future of the peace process, the Iran nuclear issue and Iranian challenge generally, the potential for conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas, U.S.-Israeli relations, and the elections' domestic ramifications.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney wave from the Situation Room of the White House, March 19, 2007, as they're joined in a video teleconference by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq.

    White House/Eric Draper

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Too Much of a Good Thing? Civil-Military Relations in the Wake of Technological Disruption

    Thu., Apr. 18, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speakers: Mathias Ormestad Frendem, Henry Chauncey Jr. '57 Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Studies and the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy, Yale University; A. Bradley Potter, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    What effect do emerging communications technologies have on U.S. civil-military relations? How might the history of such technological disruption help us prepare for future disruptions? Most scholarship suggests that such developments should empower civilian leaders to better monitor and oversee military leaders, bringing in line military efforts with civilian preferences. However, the speakers argue that these technologies also bring with them challenging consequences for civil-military relations. Namely, they may encourage tendencies in both parties that undermine decision-making and long-term healthy interaction. The speakers illustrate this with a case study of relations between President George W. Bush and George W. Casey prior to launching the "surge" in Iraq.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine and Dangers

    Thu., Apr. 11, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Frank O'Donnell, Postdoctoral Fellow, U.S. Naval War College

    The speaker will detail the arguments of his recent book, India and Nuclear Asia: Forces, Doctrine and Dangers. The book explores the post-1998 evolution of Indian nuclear thought, its arsenal, the triangular rivalry with Pakistan and China, and New Delhi's nonproliferation policy approaches. The speaker argues that emerging trends in all three states are elevating risks of regional inadvertent and accidental escalation. These include the forthcoming launch of naval nuclear forces within an environment of contested maritime boundaries; the growing employment of dual-use delivery vehicles; and the emerging preferences of all three states to employ missiles early in a conflict. These dangers are amplified by the near-absence of substantive nuclear dialogue between these states, and the growing ambiguity of regional strategic intentions. To mitigate these trends, the speaker recommends that the three states initiate a trilateral strategic dialogue, and that India institute a strategic defense review to resolve the growing ambiguities around its conventional and nuclear deterrence and improve public confidence in them.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-Sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • South Facade of the White House, the executive mansion of the President of the United States, 26 May 2006.

    Wikimedia CC/Matt H. Wade

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Administrative Foreign and Security Policy

    Thu., Apr. 4, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Elena Chachko, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    A growing number of U.S. foreign and security measures in the past two decades has directly targeted individuals—natural or legal persons. These individualized measures have largely been designed and implemented by administrative agencies. Widespread application of individual economic sanctions, ranging from terrorism sanctions to sanctions against Russian individuals for election meddling; security watchlists; detentions; targeted killings; and individualized cyber countermeasures have all become significant currencies of modern foreign and security policies since the early 2000s. The constant development of technology for precision targeting and algorithmic decision-making will likely continue driving this trend. While the application of many of these measures in discrete contexts has been studied, they have yet to attract a holistic analysis.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • As part of MOD’s full-spectrum military capability, the Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, has announced that the department is set to recruit hundreds of computer experts as cyber reservists to help defend the UK’s national security, working at the cutting-edge of the nation’s cyber defences.  Mr Hammond confirmed the creation of a new Joint Cyber Reserve which will see reservists working alongside regular forces to protect critical computer networks and safeguard vital data, 4 October 2013.

    MoD/Chris Roberts

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Cyber Securitization: Can States Deter Cyber Escalation?

    Thu., Mar. 21, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Nadiya Kostyuk, Predoctoral Fellow, Cyber Security Project

    This seminar examines conditions under which publicly observable "institutional change," which broadcast a state's rising or extensive cyber capabilities, can deter a country's adversaries from attacking it. The "use-and-lose" nature of cyber operations and difficulty of cyber attribution make such operations more effective in achieving tactical surprise than in deterring opponents. However, merely establishing a cyber unit and disclosing its estimated budget and personnel may increase the credibility of a state's threat and signal to multiple audiences, including its adversaries, that a country has, or is in the process of developing, its "power to hurt." 

    The speaker's research demonstrates that even though the cases in which institutional change will influence a strong adversary's choice to attack are limited, states tend to sub-optimally overinvest resources in publicly observable institutional changes. Weak states overinvest to make adversaries believe they are strong whereas strong states overinvest because they do not want adversaries to believe that they are weak states, pretending to be strong. The speaker's focus on the strategic logic of institutional change as a deterrent represents a departure from existing literature, which largely examines deterrence using cyber operations and other statecraft tools.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The newly developed DF-26 medium-range ballistic missile as seen after the military parade held in Beijing to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII, 3 September 2015.

    Wikimedia CC/IceUnshattered

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Sino-U.S. Inadvertent Nuclear Escalation

    Thu., Mar. 14, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: WU Riqiang, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    It is generally believed that in peacetime current Sino-U.S. nuclear relations are stable and deliberate nuclear exchanges between these two countries are unimaginable. However, conventional conflict might escalate to nuclear level, even if both sides wish to avoid it at the beginning of the war. This seminar will provide a causal mechanism of Sino-U.S. inadvertent escalation. Three driving factors are identified: the vulnerability of Chinese nuclear forces, the not-by-design co-mingling of China's conventional and nuclear weapons, and the fog of war. The security dilemma will worsen the situation and increase the escalatory risk. The mechanism is then tested via two hypothetical scenarios: a missile campaign and submarine warfare. In order to reduce the risk of inadvertent escalation, the United States should build confidence with China by declaring mutual vulnerability vis-à-vis China and constraining its strategic capabilities. China could also demarcate its nuclear and conventional missiles and clarify its no-first-use policy that conventional attacks on nuclear weapons would be regarded as nuclear attacks.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Map of Europe in 1914. During WWI,  The United Kingdom and Germany continued to trade certain items, such as hosiery needles used in textile manufacturing.

    Wikimedia CC/Varmin

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Planning for the Short Haul: Trade with the Enemy During War

    Thu., Mar. 7, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Mariya Grinberg, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In times of war, why do belligerents continue to trade with each other? The speaker shows that states set product level commercial policies to balance two potentially conflicting goals — maximizing state revenue from continued trade during the war and minimizing the ability of the opponent to benefit from security externalities of the trade. States are more likely to trade with the enemy in (1) products that their opponents take a long time to convert into military capability and (2) products that are essential to the domestic economy. The amount of time it takes the opponent to convert gains from trade into military capabilities determines which products are too dangerous to be traded during a war. The mitigating factor is the amount of revenue the state can extract from trade. The more essential the product is to the domestic economy, the less a state can afford to lose trade in it.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Satiric drawing from the Catalan newspaper "La Campana de Gràcia" in 1896 satirizing the USA's intentions about Cuba. Upper text (not displayed) reads (in old Catalan): "Uncle Sam's craving (by M. Moliné)." Text below (not displayed) reads: "Saving the island so it won't get lost."

    "La Campana de Gràcia" in the May 23, 1896 edition

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    1898: "Precautionary War" and the Three Myths of American Empire

    Thu., Feb. 28, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Aroop Mukharji, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    President William McKinley's foreign policy ranks among the most consequential of all U.S. presidents. At the start of his first term, the United States was primarily hemispheric in its foreign policy orientation. By the start of his second term, the United States had brought down a European colonial power, had begun governing seven new overseas territories, and had fought two additional wars in Asia.

    This presentation focuses specifically on the Spanish-American War and why McKinley decided to intervene. Three myths about his motivations continue to persist: (1) that the United States waged an economically imperialist war to open up trade opportunities, (2) that the rhetoric of manliness pressured McKinley into taking a more aggressive stance, and (3) that the yellow press whipped up a public frenzy that led to the declaration of war. These influences are greatly overstated. Instead, this presentation will argue that the Spanish-American War was partly a humanitarian war, but also a "precautionary war" (author's term) that was based on a general fear of disorder, uncertainty, and instability and waged to ensure conditions that better facilitated regional stability and peace.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Al-Shabab communal prayers and public celebrations marking the Eid al-Adha holiday in the Islamic lunar year of 1438 in the Galguduud region of central Somalia in June 2017.

    Open Source

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Islamizing Rebel Governance: Jihadi Insurgencies and Symbolic Power

    Thu., Feb. 21, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Christopher Anzalone, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    The advent of Islamist rebel governing projects in different regions of the world from Africa to the Middle East and West and South Asia provides an opportunity to link the empirical study of these groups with the broader academic literature on rebel governance, political Islam, and religion and violence. Despite in recent years making up a larger number of empirical cases of insurgent organizations seeking to implement governance projects, Islamist organizations have to date received limited focus in studies on the structures, ideologies, and dynamics of rebel governance. This interdisciplinary project examines the strategies and experiences of Islamist insurgent organizations that have actively attempted to set up civil governing systems through which to interact with local civilian populations. It situates the study of Islamist insurgent groups with governance ambitions within the growing literature on rebel governance.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Satellite image of the half-built light water reactor site in North Korea.

    Google Earth Image@2018 DigitalGlobe

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Normalization by Other Means — The Failed Techno-diplomacy of Light Water Reactor Export in the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

    Thu., Feb. 14, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Christopher Lawrence, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    The history of U.S. engagement with North Korea offers important lessons that could help reframe the diplomatic impasse today. In the 1994 Agreed Framework (AF), the regime agreed to dismantle its plutonium-production complex in exchange for western light water reactors (LWR) and the promise of political normalization with the United States. As construction of the LWRs fell behind, however, North Korea embarked on a secret uranium enrichment program. Today, scholars and policymakers look back at the LWRs of the AF as a "carrot" — "we offered the carrot, and they cheated anyway." But when scholars and policymakers consider the unique technical attributes of LWRs and how their construction was planned to be situated within a diplomatic track to normalization, they appear to function more as a way to signal commitment than as a carrot to bribe the regime. In this light, chronic construction delays and the offset of LWR costs to U.S. allies can be interpreted as signals about America's lack of commitment to normalization with North Korea. This conceptual shift — from carrots and sticks to signaling and credibility — offers important insights into past diplomatic failures and could help reconcile the competing visions of engagement with North Korea today.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • U.S President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev at the Hofdi House in Reykjavik, Iceland, during the Reykjavik Summit, 11 October 1986.

    The Official CTBTO Photostream

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Nuclear Abolitionism and the End of the Cold War

    Thu., Feb. 7, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Stephanie Freeman, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    During most of the Cold War, U.S. and Soviet officials built a broad consensus among their publics that nuclear weapons provided essential security by deterring the actions of hostile states. In the 1980s, however, the radical goal of nuclear abolition enjoyed staunch support from both grassroots movements across the globe and the leaders of the two superpowers, Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev. This presentation will examine nuclear abolitionists' influence on the trajectory of the Cold War's last decade, from 1979 to 1989. It will assess anti-nuclear activists' impact on elite decision-makers and consider how their shared interest in nuclear disarmament transformed U.S. and Soviet foreign policy in the 1980s. This talk will demonstrate that nuclear abolitionists played a decisive yet unappreciated role in ending the Cold War.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Oxfam distributing water in the Horn of Africa during a severe drought, 24 February 2011.

    Wikimedia CC/Oxfam

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Nexus between Internationalism and Localism in Civil Conflict: Insurgents' Policy toward Humanitarian Access

    Thu., Jan. 31, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ayako Kobayashi, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do some rebel groups restrict international humanitarian access to areas under their control, while others allow it? Some scholars posit that rebels strategically comply with international humanitarian law to legitimize their status in the international arena. Others underline the importance of exploring interactions between non-state armed groups and local populations from which protection norms may emerge. This interdisciplinary project will fill the gap between the internationalism and localism by proposing a new typology of rebel groups, addressing conditions under which rebels are more likely to allow humanitarian access, and through case studies illustrating the theory.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Map of Cold War–era Europe showing countries that received Marshall Plan aid. The blue columns show the relative amount of total aid per state.

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Borrowed Power: Financial Origins of Grand Strategy

    Thu., Jan. 24, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Daniel Z. Jacobs, Grand Strategy, Security, and Statecraft Fellow, International Security Program

    What are the sources of grand strategy, the relationship of national power to national interest? Answers to this question tend to emphasize domestic interests, cultural and ideational impulses, state capacity, or the distribution of military power. The speaker, however, argues that it is a state's ability to harness the wealth of others that shapes both what the state wants (i.e., national interest) and how the state goes about getting it (i.e., national power).

    The core component of this argument is financial power; that is, the costs a state pays to facilitate public spending through borrowing. When these costs are relatively high, the state is likely to define its national interest narrowly and rely for its security on the self-correcting nature of the balance of power. By contrast, when the costs of borrowing are relatively low, the state will take a broader view of its national interest. As a result, the state is likely to reshape the balance of power in its favor and attempt to preserve this newfound distribution. Overall, scholars and policymakers can say that as a state's financial power rises, its grand strategy becomes increasingly ambitious.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Memorial to the Fighters for Soviet Power in the Far East, 1917–1922, Vladivostok, Russia

    Paul Behringer

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Reconquering the Russian Far East: Civil War, Intervention, and Centralization

    Thu., Jan. 17, 2019 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Paul Behringer, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    In 1917–1918, the Russian state collapsed and its empire disintegrated. The Bolsheviks, having seized power in November 1917, managed to hold onto authority amid repeated challenges from domestic and foreign opponents in all directions. In October 1922, Lenin's party emerged victorious from the rubble of one of the most destructive civil wars in history. Historians have put forward several convincing arguments for why the Bolsheviks were able to win the overall struggle. But the fact that the new regime was also able to reconstitute much of the Russian Empire, extending all the way to the Pacific Ocean, is as astounding today as it was unlikely in 1918. This presentation attempts to explain this accomplishment by framing the civil war in the Russian Far East as a contest between geopolitical, social, ideological, and international forces of centralization and decentralization. Building on the most recent historiographic trends in the study of the Russian Civil War, it also speaks to political science research on the broader issues of intrastate conflict, foreign intervention, and violence.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The public military degradation of Captain Alfred Dreyfus

    Public Domain/Henri Meyer

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Taking the Bizarre Seriously in Diplomatic History

    Thu., Dec. 20, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Speaker: Ben Rhode, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    In 1898, France's military attaché in London recommended that his superiors make a secret agreement with his anonymous Irish nationalist informant in order to undermine the British Empire and counterbalance supposedly hostile British behavior. Most historical assessments have either overlooked or discounted this attaché's recommendation, considering him untrustworthy or unsober. Such an interpretation is initially appealing, especially given the bizarre and conspiratorial material in the informant's unpublished reports. This seminar will challenge prevailing scholarship that ignores or deprecates this recommendation or the attaché's credibility. It will locate the episode within the context of French concerns over Britain's exploitation of the Spanish-American War, the Dreyfus Affair, and Fashoda; a preoccupation with supposed national subversion; and alarm over the phenomenon of "fake news." Using this episode as a case study, it will argue for taking alarming or peculiar observations in the diplomatic record seriously: neither downplaying their strangeness nor overlooking how, within their context, they could be sincerely believed and hold deep appeal.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Mutiny in Cote d'Ivoire in January 2017

    Ultima Ratio

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Wartime Roots of Military Obedience and Defiance in Insurgent-Ruled States

    Thu., Dec. 13, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Philip Andrew Martin, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do some winning armed movements build states with robust control over military forces after civil war, while others do not? Why, for example, did the Zimbabwe African National Union (ZANU) and the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) succeed in building powerful and obedient post-war armies, while winning coalitions in Côte d'Ivoire (2011—), Libya (2011—), and Afghanistan (2001—) experienced military fragmentation and the growth of private armed networks controlled by ex-rebel commanders? While existing scholarship points to the role of ideology and external intervention, this book project argues that two wartime factors — threats to the survival of armed movements, and the social linkages between militant group commanders and insurgent-ruled communities — shape the bargaining power and behavior of ex-rebel commanders during transitions to postwar politics.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Map of the Persian Gulf

    Wikimedia CC/Edbrown05

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Changing Security Dynamics in the Persian Gulf

    Thu., Dec. 6, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Dina Esfandiary, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    For over a decade now, thinking on regional relations in the Persian Gulf has focused largely on the competition for regional hegemony between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the different layers of this rivalry. But recent events, in particular, the Arab Spring and Iran’s response, the announced U.S. pivot to Asia, and the landmark nuclear deal with Iran, served as catalysts for changes in the security dynamics of the Persian Gulf. Smaller Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, led by the UAE, previously content to align with the Saudi position, appear to be developing a growing self-awareness that represents a significant challenge to the existing order. The speaker will explore how these three events have affected regional developments and what these changes will mean for the region.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Dr. Peter Neumann, Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization in the United Kingdom, addresses the White House Summit to Counter Violent Extremism's first session — Understanding Violent Extremism Today — at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on February 19, 2015.

    State Department/ Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Countering Violent Extremism: A Quest for Legitimacy and Effectiveness

    Thu., Nov. 29, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Anina Schwarzenbach, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In the face of the increased number of individuals adhering to extremist ideologies in modern democratic states, governments have augmented the amount of public money spent on counter violent extremism strategies and programs. Despite this fact, systematic analyses of currently implemented strategies and programs are surprisingly sparse.

    This seminar will discuss — by focusing on Germany, France, and the United States — which governmental approaches are most appropriate to counter violent extremism and what ought to be expected from the strategies and programs in terms of legitimacy and effectiveness.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Inadvertent Expansion in World Politics

    Thu., Nov. 15, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Nicholas D. Anderson, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Most existing theories of expansion and territorial conquest tend to focus on key actors at the center of great states and empires, and on their will and ability to engage in expansion. However, a number of important instances of territorial expansion in the history of great power politics do not align well with these theories, showing territorial expansion to be far more peripherally-driven and far less intentional than they would expect. Drawing on research on the British and Japanese Empires, as well as on America's westward expansion, this presentation will outline a theory of inadvertent expansion that helps account for these puzzling and counter-intuitive cases.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Jihadism Constrained: The Limits of Transnational Jihadism and What It Means for Counterterrorism

    Thu., Nov. 8, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Barak Mendelsohn, Associate Professor of Political Science, Haverford College

    The seminar focuses on three factors — material, ideational, and intra-movement — that limit the ability of transnational jihadi groups to attain their objectives. These limitations should inform a less interventionist and more cost-effective strategy of containment.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    National Security Institutions and Interstate Crisis

    Thu., Nov. 1, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Tyler Jost, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program/Cyber Security Project

    Why do interstate crises occur? Existing scholarship posits that states use crises to reveal information about capabilities, resolve, and preferences. This book project instead argues that interstate crisis propensity is in part a function of the design of national security institutions, defined as the rules and procedures for deciding and executing national security strategy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Artificial Intelligence: The Profits and Perils for Military Operations and Decision Making

    Thu., Oct. 25, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Lt. Col. Wes Adams, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In his research, Lt. Col. Adams investigates the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the future of military decision making. Since the dawn of recorded warfare, battlefield commanders sought greater speed and insight over their enemy, trying to reduce what Clausewitz would famously declare the "fog and friction" of war. Over time, myriad technologies offered promises of battlefield omniscience but failed. Will AI be the final technology to deliver on the promise, or the next failed attempt at clearing the fog?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict

    Thu., Oct. 18, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jacob N. Shapiro, Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University; Co-author, Small Wars, Big Data: The Information Revolution in Modern Conflict

    How a new understanding of warfare can help manage today's conflicts more effectively. Small Wars, Big Data provides groundbreaking perspectives for how small wars can be better strategized and favorably won to the benefit of the local population.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President Lyndon Johnson looking on as Secretary of State Dean Rusk prepares to sign the NPT, 1 July 1968.

    Courtesy of Lyndon B. Johnson Presidential Library

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Hegemon's Toolkit: U.S. Hegemony and the Politics of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

    Thu., Oct. 11, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Rebecca Davis Gibbons, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program

    The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is widely credited with contributing to international security through its promotion of nuclear restraint. Whereas almost all states in the international system are members of the NPT, many of these states have not signed on to additional treaties and agreements designed to strengthen the regime. Having already committed to foreswear the possession of nuclear weapons, why would some NPT members avoid taking steps to further the treaty's proclaimed goals? States' affinity to U.S. global leadership explains such variation.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President of Russia Vladimir Putin with President of China Xi Jinping before a roundtable meeting of leaders during the Belt and Road international forum, 14 May 2017.

    Wikimedia CC/www.kremlin.ru

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Unlocking Eurasian Gateways? China's Belt and Road Initiative and its Implications for U.S. Grand Strategy

    Thu., Oct. 4, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Thomas Cavanna, Visiting Assistant Professor of Strategic Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

    Since its launch by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative has become the symbol of China's rising foreign policy ambitions. Yet most studies on the subject remain descriptive in nature or limited in scope, exploring specific themes, regions, or projects. This seminar aims to fill this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of the Belt and Road Initiative, its multiple dimensions, its prospects of success, and its potential implications for U.S. grand strategy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • On the cover of Puck published on April 6, 1901, in the wake of gainful victory in the Spanish–American War, Columbia—the National personification of the U.S.—preens herself with an Easter bonnet in the form of a warship bearing the words "World Power" and the word "Expansion" on the smoke coming out of its stack.

    Library of Congress

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Power, Perception, and Status: Understanding Ambiguous Global Order

    Thu., Sep. 27, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Benjamin Zala, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    For some time now, in both the scholarly literature and the statements of practitioners, it has been possible to identify competing perceptions of how many major centers of power exist in the world. Therefore whether the distribution of power should be characterized as unipolar, bipolar, multipolar, or perhaps even "nonpolar," has been a central theme of much analysis leading to a general sense of ambiguity in the way scholars and policymakers describe the inter-state order. This seminar will outline a way of making sense of this phenomenon without abandoning polarity analysis altogether. It will answer two central questions; how can scholars and policymakers account for the occurrence of competing perceptions of polarity theoretically? And how should they characterize its importance historically?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • India test-fired its surface-to-surface nuclear capable Agni-I (A) ballistic missile off Abdul Kalam Island in its eastern state of Odisha on 6 February 2018.

    Wikimedia CC/Tasnim News Agency

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    India's Search for Deterrence: Nuclear Subcultures and Policy Choices

    Thu., May 17, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Frank O'Donnell, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    This seminar will first discuss how the requirements of Indian deterrence, as perceived by New Delhi's strategic elite, have evolved since 1998. It will next detail the characteristics of two "minimalist-political" and "maximalist-operational" schools of thought within Indian nongovernmental strategic elite discourse, and how their comparative influence has changed over time. The seminar will reconstruct the policy options developed by this strategic elite as it faced each nuclear policy juncture and demonstrate how a numerically dominant option in each discourse provides a reliable proxy indicator for the subsequent official strategic decision. It will conclude with an exploration of how this approach can inform scholarly understanding of current and potential future Indian nuclear policies.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • View to the south of Yucca Mountain crest showing coring activities.

    DOE

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Stalemate of Nuclear Waste Management and its Effect on the Fuel Cycle, Security, and Non-Proliferation Endeavors

    Thu., May 10, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Katlyn M. Turner, Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    The state of long-term management of nuclear waste in the United States is at an impasse. While technical options exist for long-term radiological waste isolation, these are irrelevant in the face of the socio-political complications of siting and operating a nuclear waste repository. This lecture will outline and detail 1) the history of nuclear waste management options considered by the United States leading to its decision to pursue a long-term geologic repository for ultimate waste disposal, 2) the process—technical and political—of attempting to site Yucca Mountain as the United States' repository for civilian nuclear waste, and 3) the outlook moving forward for any attempts to site and operate a long-term geologic repositor—Yucca Mountain or otherwise—for nuclear waste in the United States. This lecture will attempt to situate the struggle to effectively manage nuclear waste within the realm of nuclear energy issues, nuclear security, and nuclear non-proliferation issues.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Artsakh St. sign in Watertown, Mass. The Republic of Artsakh, commonly known by its former name of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, is a state with limited recognition in the South Caucasus. Watertown is a major center of the Armenian diaspora in the U.S.; Massachusetts has passed a bill recognizing Artsakh.

    Wikimedia CC/Yerevanci

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Diaspora Entrepreneurs and Contested States: Transnationally Linked, Positionally Different

    Thu., May 3, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Maria Koinova, Reader in International Relations, University of Warwick; Senior Research Fellow, Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame

    This presentation introduces findings from the large-scale European Research Council Starting Grant "Diasporas and Contested Sovereignty," directed by Dr. Maria Koinova as a Principal Investigator at the University of Warwick (2012–2017). Why do conflict-generated diasporas in liberal states mobilize transnationally in moderate or contentious ways for their homelands experiencing contested sovereignty? How contexts shape diaspora mobilizations is crucial. Koinova’s work evolving from this project challenges statist theories analyzing the role of diasporas in conflict processes through interactions between diasporas, host-states, and home-states.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A member of the 341st Security Forces Group guards a missile launch facility during an LF recapture simulation as part of the Grizzly Rampart training exercise March 18 near Malmstrom Air Force Base. The exercise was implemented to evaluate the readiness of the 341st Missile Wing and ensure first-responder Airmen know and follow the standards set in place for real-world events.

    USAF/Collin Schmidt

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Training Nuclear Security Leaders: A Tiered Approach

    Thu., Apr. 26, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Brian Filler, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    The leaders responsible for securing U.S. nuclear weapons, materials and infrastructure must receive the best training possible. This seminar will discuss how the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of Energy (DOE) currently train their tactical and senior nuclear security leaders and where that training should be improved and augmented. The seminar will then present the recommendation that is being forwarded to the departments, calling for the establishment of Tiered DOD-DOE Nuclear Security Leaders Training. The proposed training is designed to provide breadth and depth of knowledge for all of the departments' tactical and senior nuclear security leaders. Finally, the presentation will discuss how the proposed training could improve the security of nuclear assets around the world.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin shaking hands at the BRICS Summit, July 8, 2018

    Kremlin.ru

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Authoritarian Resurgence: Power, Politics, and the Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and China

    Thu., Apr. 19, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Torrey Taussig, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    In a renewed era of great power competition, leading authoritarian regimes have progressed from consolidating power within their borders to projecting power beyond them. Nowhere is this trend more evident, or important, than in Russia and China. This seminar will first discuss how Russian and Chinese foreign policy strategies have evolved over the course of the twenty-first century, as both nations have become revisionist powers in their respective regions. The seminar will also discuss how scholars and policymakers can gain greater insight into Russian and Chinese foreign policy decision making by assessing dynamics within their authoritarian political orders — including leaders, the institutions in which they operate, and their requirements for domestic legitimacy. As Presidents Putin and Xi continue to develop personalist systems at home, these internal factors will have increasing importance for U.S. foreign policy in the years ahead.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    NOTE: CHANGED DATE

  • Gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment recovered from the BBC China in Italy, en route to Libya, in 2003.

    DOE

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Stop or I'll Shoot, Comply and I Won't: The Paradox of Coercion

    Thu., Apr. 12, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Reid Pauly, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    In making demands, coercers must communicate the credibility of their threats to punish. They must also, however, communicate the credibility of corresponding assurances not to punish if the target complies. This presentation will explain the paradox at the heart of coercion and explore how states overcome it by signaling the contingency of their actions.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Glass mural found in an office of the former East German Ministry for State Security (Stasi).

    Alexander K. Bollfrass

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Blinded by Belief: U.S., UK, and East German Nuclear Espionage in West Germany

    Thu., Apr. 5, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Alexander K. Bollfrass, Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Fears of a West German bomb sharpened Cold War tensions, making the country's nuclear program an intelligence priority for all concerned states. Based on original archival and newly declassified files, this presentation evaluates the accuracy of U.S., UK, and East German intelligence assessments of the Federal Republic's proliferation risk. Despite spectacular collection successes, the Stasi's analysts were required to view the world through thick ideological lenses. The result was a distorted picture of West German ambition to arm itself with nuclear weapons.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Azadi Tower, Azadi Square, Meydea-e Azadi, Meydan-e Shahyad, Tehran province, Iran Flag colors

    Creative Commons/Mahdi Kalhor

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Iranian Grand Strategy: Deterring and Contesting the American Hegemon since 1979

    Thu., Mar. 29, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Mahsa Rouhi, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Theories of grand strategy tend to focus on major powers. This seminar sheds light on the grand strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, a regional power. It explores the principles of Iranian grand strategy, whether explicitly stated or implicit in its national policies. The speaker will provide an analysis that lays out the grand strategy, its elements, and how it provides a framework to guide all Iranian foreign policy. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Flag of the People's Republic of China crashing with flag of the United States of America

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    To Bid or Not To Bid: Is Hegemony Worth the Candle?

    Thu., Mar. 22, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Irina A. Chindea, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar explores the — at times — conflicting relationship between the external goal of rising and existing hegemons to maximize power and influence in the international system, and the domestic responsibility to provide for the security and well-being of their citizens. In the attempt to make a successful hegemonic bid or consolidate primacy, these powers often end up engaged in expensive international wars, shifting away resources from internal development. This seminar presentation unpacks the key drivers behind this trade-off and assesses its implications.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • UTair Mil Mi-8AMT delivering food aid in Ulang, South Sudan, 23 March 2017

    Creative Commons/Alexandr Podolian

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Rebel Strategies toward Humanitarian Access in Civil Wars

    Thu., Mar. 15, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ayako Kobayashi, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do some rebel groups restrict humanitarian access to their territory, while others allow it? Under what conditions does one rebel group change its attitude toward humanitarian access? This presentation introduces a typology of rebel groups — four types identified as quasi-state, extrovert, introvert, and isolationist rebels, depending on their strategic appeals to international and/or domestic audiences.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • South China Sea claims map

    VOA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Calculating Bully: Explaining Chinese Coercion

    Thu., Mar. 8, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ketian Zhang, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will zoom in on the temporal trends of Chinese coercion in the South China Sea as well as on one case, the 2012 Scarborough incident between China and the Philippines.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  •  Capt Richard C. Zilmer leads his Company F, Battalion Landing Team 2/8 Marines ashore from the landing ship Saginaw (LST 1188) at the port of Beirut on 29 September 1982.

    U.S. Navy

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Reagan's Retreat: Lebanon and the Limits of U.S. Power, 1981–1985

    Thu., Mar. 1, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Alexandra Tejblum Evans, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    This presentation will evaluate U.S. policy toward Lebanon from 1981–1985, tracing the gradual expansion and rapid contraction of American efforts to stabilize a complex civil and regional conflict. By situating the United States' diplomatic and military interventions within a broader effort to strengthen American influence in the Middle East, it will demonstrate how the experience shaped the Reagan administration's perception of threat—and opportunity—in a moment of structural change. It will identify persistent barriers to U.S. interests in a vital region and shed light on how American leaders learn through crisis.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics

    Thu., Feb. 22, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speakers: Peter Krause, Co-Editor, Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International PoliticsPhil M. Haun, Dean of Academics, U.S. Naval War College; Tristan Volpe, Assistant Professor, Defense Analysis Department, U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

    A discussion of the new edited volume, Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics, by a co-editor and two of the contributing authors.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The amphibious transport dock ship USS Denver (LPD 9) transits the South China Sea at sunset to participate in exercise Cobra Gold 2010. Cobra Gold is an annual exercise designed to create interoperability between the Thai, U.S. and Singaporean task forces, 28 January 2010.

    U.S. Navy

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Grand Plans in International Relations: U.S. Responses to China's Rise

    Thu., Feb. 15, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Nina Silove, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar addresses the questions of the existence and effects of comprehensive, long term "grand plans" in international politics and their effects on state behavior by examining a least-likely case for finding the existence of operative plans: the responses of the United States to the rise of China.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A Coast Guard patrol vessel passes by Uotsuri, the largest island in the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu chain, 2 October 2012. Now uninhabited, it used to be home to 248 Japanese, in a community of 99 houses in the late 1890s. They were mostly employed working in a Bonito flake factory on the island.

    Al Jazeera English

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Chinese Wedging in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute: An Empirical Assessment

    Thu., Feb. 8, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Andrew D. Taffer, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will explore China's contemporary strategy in its offshore territorial conflict with Japan. It will present evidence to suggest that Beijing has adopted a "wedging" strategy in the disputes aimed principally at weakening Japan's with the United States. Along with a close empirical analysis, it is highlighted that much of Beijing's conduct has corresponded with principles of coalition wedging established in Chinese writings and which the Chinese Communist Party has historically employed. The research is then situated in terms of—and used to critically analyze—the international relations literature on "wedging."

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A memorial to the Tamil civilians killed by the Sri Lankan security forces in the final phase of the war against the LTTE. Mullivaikkal, July 14, 2017.

    Kate Cronin-Furman

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Getting Away with Mass Murder: The Logic of Atrocity Denials

    Thu., Feb. 1, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Kate Cronin-Furman, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Why do state perpetrators of mass atrocities stubbornly deny their crimes long after the evidence of guilt is clear? This talk will present an argument that such denials, even when totally unconvincing, can successfully affect members of the international community’s incentives to intervene. Evidence from Burma and Sri Lanka illustrates the specifics of this strategy and the conditions under which it is likely to succeed.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Lighting flashes as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) transits the Straight of Malacca.

    U.S. Navy

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Conceptions of International Order during the Cold War: Russia, China, and the United States

    Thu., Jan. 25, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Paul Fraioli, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will present Chinese and Russian ideas about global order and international law that emerged during the Cold War, trace their historical antecedents, and present contemporaneous reactions to these views from policymakers in the U.S. government. It will also discuss how these ideas illuminate current topics, including “new form of great power relations” between the United States and China, and debates over several maritime and landed territorial disputes.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A pair of Marines barricaded behind a wall watch for snipers in the international neutral corridor in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, 1965.

    Marine Corps Archives & Special Collections

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Frustrated Presidents and the Emotional Underpinnings of U.S.-Imposed Regime Change

    Thu., Jan. 18, 2018 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Payam Ghalehdar, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar presents a novel argument about U.S. regime change that centers on the emotional state of U.S. presidents. It develops the concept of "emotional frustration," an unpleasant emotional state marked by the perception that the behavior of a target state is driven by anti-American hatred. Emotional frustration produces aggressive tendencies, which impulsively spur the turn to military force and make regime change an attractive tool to strike the target state and relieve frustration.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • United States Air Force Logistics Command and Control … Concept to Reality by 2035

    Chad Ellsworth

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    United States Air Force Logistics Command and Control: Concept to Reality by 2035

    Thu., Dec. 21, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Chad Ellsworth, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    The United States Air Force must mature its ability to act quickly, operationally, and logically, in response to dynamic adversaries within an ever-changing geopolitical environment. The Air Force logistics enterprise must take steps now to ensure it meets the demands of the future. What steps should be taken by senior leaders now to drive needed change? This seminar will look at the Air Force initiative to transform its logistics support enterprise.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A street-level view of Cleveland, Ohio in 1930.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    "Every Citizen a Statesman": Democracy and Foreign Policy in the American Century

    Thu., Dec. 14, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker:  David Allen, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    In the middle of the twentieth century, foreign policy elites led a national movement to create democratic, foreign policy publics in communities across America, building what we now know as World Affairs Councils. This seminar will take Cleveland as its case study, explaining the rise and fall of the movement for "citizen education in world affairs" through the city where had seemed to have most success, in the 1930s and 1940s, and yet went through the steepest decline even before the Vietnam War. Americans, in other words, tried to build a democratic foreign policy, but they failed. This seminar demonstrates how and why.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Map of the Caliphate proposed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Territorial Logic of the Islamic State

    Mon., Dec. 11, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Burak Kadercan, Postdoctoral Fellow, Center for Strategic Studies, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

    All analysts agree that the self-proclaimed Islamic State is a "territorial" organization, but there exists little systematic analysis over two questions: how can scholars and policymakers make sense of ISIS' territorial vision, and how does the group's territoriality affect its strategy? Drawing on insights from political geography and the history of past Islamic states, this seminar identifies ISIS as a "hybrid" spatial form that brings together elements from both historical Islamic states and the nation-state ideal. ISIS' hybrid territorial practices are associated with its global and regional objectives, which follow a simple logic: degrading and destroying what the group refers to as "grayzones," or zones of religious and sectarian reconciliation. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Navy of the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution commandos and missile boats in Great Prophet IX Maneuver in the general area of Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf, 25–27 February 2015.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    No Conquest, No Defeat: Iran's National Security Policies

    Thu., Dec. 7, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ariane Tabatabai, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Ariane Tabatabai will discuss the role of strategic culture in shaping Iran's national security policies. She will map the Iranian national security decision-making process and the drivers framing the country's security thinking and policies.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Evacuees from the DAO Compound are offloaded onto the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Midway (CVA-41) during the evacuation of South Vietnam ("Operation Frequent Wind"), April 29, 1975

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Mars at Twilight: Leaders, Ideas, and Ending U.S. Wars, 1964 – 2011

    Thu., Nov. 30, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker:  A. Bradley Potter, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    This seminar will examine the United States' experience ending wars from Vietnam to Iraq. In particular, it will consider the role senior political and military leaders played in crafting American approaches to bringing wars to a close. The importance of historically informed ideas about the utility of force and the nature of war termination feature prominently in exploring just how leaders might matter in ending wars.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Unipolar Era: Why America's Edge Will Endure

    Thu., Nov. 16, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Michael Beckley, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    The United States has been the world's dominant power for more than a century. Now many analysts believe other countries are rising. Is the United States doomed to decline? Is the unipolar era over? In this seminar, Michael Beckley argues that the United States has unique advantages over other nations that, if used wisely, will allow it to remain the world's sole superpower throughout this century.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • "No chance to criticize." Uncle Sam sits at a table on which is a small cake on a platter labeled "Cuba," with a decanter labeled "Philippine Islands" on the table and a bottle labeled "Porto Rico" in an ice bucket. On the left, John Bull (Britain) and other colonial powers hold swords slicing a large cake on a platter labeled "China." John Bull (to the Powers): "What are you mad about? We can't grudge him a light lunch while we are feasting!"

    Library of Congress

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    "The Spanish Question is Burning": Living and Dying Nations in 1898

    Thu., Nov. 9, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ben Rhode, Ernest May Fellow in History & Policy, International Security Program

    This seminar will examine British diplomatic perceptions of Spain's defeat in 1898. It will explore British reactions to Spain's bitterness over being considered a "dying nation" and the supposedly close U.S.-UK relationship. It will discuss British concerns that Spain might fall under the influence of hostile states and that Spanish retaliatory actions could pose a strategic threat to the British Empire. In doing so, it will investigate understandings of national power, influence, and diplomacy at the fin de siècle.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President Dwight D. Eisenhower meeting with Secretary of State John Foster Dulles at the White House, August 14, 1956.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Agents of Empire: The Making of U.S. Intelligence in the Middle East

    Thu., Nov. 2, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jeffrey G. Karam, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Under what conditions do intelligence officials and diplomats make accurate assessments of domestic developments, such as revolutions or military coups, in foreign states? "Agents of Empire" is the first interdisciplinary study that examines U.S. intelligence failures and successes in the Middle East during the Cold War.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Power through Influence: Understanding Great Power Competition in the Contemporary World

    Thu., Oct. 26, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Mathias Frendem, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    How do great powers compete in the contemporary world? With great power wars and territorial acquisitions being rare since 1945, competition instead primarily takes place for influence over minor powers. Influence can be very beneficial, but this is not always the case. Minor powers have considerable agency and often seek to use the great powers to pursue their own aims. The speaker outlines why great powers compete for influence, the main challenges they face, and the best strategies for overcoming these.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Electing Peace: From Civil Conflict to Political Participation cover image

    Voto by Christian Grooms for Electing Peace

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Electing Peace and Considering Concessions in Colombia

    Fri., Oct. 20, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Fainsod Room, 324

    Speaker: Aila M. Matanock, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley

    Settlements to civil conflict, which are notably difficult to secure, sometimes contain clauses enabling the combatant sides to participate as political parties in post-conflict elections. In this seminar, the speaker will discuss some of her research suggesting that electoral participation provisions allowing rebel parties helps secure peace between combatants. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President John F. Kennedy meets with Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko in the Oval Office. The President knows but does not reveal that he is now aware of the missile build-up in Cuba, October 18, 1962.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    How to Think About Nuclear Crises

    Thu., Oct. 19, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speakers: Mark S. Bell,  Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Minnesota Twin Cities; 

    Julia Macdonald, Assistant Professor in International Relations, Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver

    How dangerous are nuclear crises, and how should scholars and policymakers think about them? What dynamics govern how they unfold? The speakers argue that correctly interpreting nuclear crises—and how one thinks about the effects of nuclear weapons during these times—hinges on crisis participants' theories about processes of escalation to the nuclear level. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • HMS Dreadnought underway, with an anchor suspended from the starboard deck edge, circa 1906–1907. Note the array of booms used to deploy her anti-torpedo net system.

    Public Domain

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Seapower between the First and the Second Machine Age: From Self-propelled Torpedoes to Artificial Intelligence

    Thu., Oct. 12, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Andrea Gilli, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, International Security Program

    What are the consequences for international politics of the emergence of robotics, big data, and artificial intelligence: the so-called second machine age? Are these new technologies going to promote instability and conflict, as many warn, or are they going to reinforce U.S. military primacy. How are they going to affect warfare, use of force, and even world politics? The literature in international relations theory has generally neglected technology and its dynamics and thus does not offer clear guidance.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • During World War II, German Nazis shot more than ten  thousand residents of Nis and Southeast Serbia on Bubanj hill. After the war, the execution site was transformed into a memorial park, with a monument in the shape of three clenched fists, symbolizing the resistence of men, women, and children who died on the location.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Targeting Noncombatants as a Strategy in War or Wartime Military Occupation: An Empirical Assessment

    Thu., Oct. 5, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Ivan Arreguin-Toft, Senior Research Fellow, Cyber Security Project

    In the past two decades, an increasing number of social scientists, military historians, and practitioners have weighed in on an important question relevant to the conduct of war and wartime occupation: what actually happens when a given political actor deliberately or systematically harms noncombatants as a strategy? 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    "No Such Thing as a Little War": The Ideas Driving Great Power Military Intervention

    Thu., Sep. 28, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 350

    Speaker: Jacqueline L. Hazelton, Assistant Professor, Department of Strategy and Policy, U.S. Naval War College

    What beliefs influence liberal great power policymakers to back a government threatened by an insurgency? Why do great powers continue seeking insurgent defeat when costs rise? This seminar identifies a core belief about national and international security in the literature on pacification from the post–World War II era to the current period of liberal interventionism. It analyzes how this belief distorts analyses of past interventions and shapes policymakers' intervention choices.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Human Resources of Non-State Armed Groups

    Thu., May 4, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Vera Mironova, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    The speaker will discuss the labor market of non-state armed groups on the ground and at the leadership level, focusing on recruitment, retention, and turnover. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit, July 8, 2015

    Creative Commons kremlin.ru

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Chinese and Russian Approaches to International Law vs. U.S. Visions of Global Order

    Thu., Apr. 27, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will present a comparative assessment of Chinese and Russian approaches to the international legal and security architecture stood up by the United States after World War II, beginning with a historical overview of the emergence of the concept of "international law."

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Does it Matter? Military Training and Insurgent Fighting Capacity

    Thu., Apr. 20, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The speaker will demonstrate the importance of military training by drawing on archival documents and a rich historiography to comparatively trace the development of three separate elements of the Communist fighting force in Vietnam during the Second Indochina War (1961–1975): the forces of the North Vietnamese Regime, or the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN), as well as two groups within the southern resistance of the People's Liberation Armed Front (PLAF, also known as the Việt Cộng or VC): Main Force units and Guerrilla Force units.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Loyalty or Disavowal: Explaining Affiliation and Defection of Al-Qa’ida Allies to Islamic State

    Thu., Apr. 13, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Christopher Anzalone, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    Drawing on collected jihadi-insurgent primary source materials and group histories, this seminar examines the organizational and local dynamics at play within regional Sunni jihadi-insurgent organizations to explain why and when there have been defections and shifts in loyalty from Al-Qa'ida and its regional affiliates to Islamic State.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Sahel, the Rift, and the Horn: A Comparative Study of African Jihadists

    Thu., Apr. 6, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Stig Jarle Hansen, Research Fellow, International Security Program

    It is now over 16 years since the September 11th attack and the initiation of the so-called "war on terror," yet in Africa, none of the allies of Al Qaeda or the Islamic State have been defeated. This seminar bases itself on a comparative study of sub-Saharan jihadist organizations. The main argument is that the resilience of the organizations partly emerges because of lack of understanding of the relationship between the organizations and the territories in which they operate. Countering Violent Extremism and counter strategies have to be adjusted to the type of control these organizations wield in their area of operations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Reconciling Strategic Stability Disconnects with China

    Thu., Mar. 30, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Barry Little, Research Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    The speaker will discuss U.S. and Chinese perspectives on strategic stability, sticking points in the nuclear relationship, and recommendations on how to bolster stability.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • May 8, 1993: President Clinton participating in a Bosnia situation meeting in the White House Roosevelt Room with Secretary of State Warren Christopher, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin, Vice President Gore, National Security Advisor Tony Lake, and others.

    William J. Clinton Presidential Library

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The American Presidency in Response to Mass Atrocities, 1915–1995

    Thu., Mar. 23, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    One Brattle Square - Room 402

    Drawing on historical materials collected from research at eight archives, this seminar will offer a theory of presidential decision-making in response to mass killing, illuminating the historical factors that typically lead to changes in policy and uncovering dramatic stories of internal government infighting, secret deliberations, and cover-ups, as various administrations have struggled to define their policy response.

  • Oct. 25, 2012 - A SM-2 Block IIIA missile is launched from the USS Fitzgerald during the FTI-01 flight test.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    In the Shadow of the Umbrella: U.S. Extended Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in East Asia, 1961–1979

    Thu., Mar. 16, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The United States has been remarkably successful at using the security guarantee as a non-proliferation tool, but during the Cold War, three countries — Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan — were in danger of slipping out from under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Why did these states feel the need to start down the nuclear path, despite being under the protective wing of its nuclear-armed superpower ally? Relying on declassified national security archival documents, this seminar sheds light on the interplay between alliance dynamics and nuclear weapons decision making.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Why Nuclear Energy Programs Rarely Lead to Proliferation

    Thu., Feb. 16, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Nicholas L. Miller, Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom

    Much conventional wisdom suggests that states with nuclear energy programs are more likely to seek or acquire nuclear weapons. In this seminar, the speaker will argue that the link between nuclear energy programs and proliferation is overstated. While energy programs increase the technical capacity of a state to build nuclear weapons, they also (1) increase the costliness of nonproliferation sanctions, (2) increase the odds that a parallel nuclear weapons program is detected, and (3) reduce the incentives to weaponize by providing a hedging alternative. Collectively, these three mechanisms help explain why states with nuclear energy programs have not been significantly more likely to seek or acquire nuclear weapons historically. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Tinker, Tailor, Ally, Spy: The Origins and Evolution of Anglo-American Intelligence Relations

    Thu., Feb. 2, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Speaker: Calder Walton, Ernest May Fellow in History and Policy, International Security Program

    Stretching from the Second World War to the early Cold War, this seminar will examine the origins, evolution, stresses, and strains of British and U.S. intelligence relations—the closest intelligence relationship between two powers in history. Using a series of case studies, from signals intelligence-sharing agreements to atomic espionage and covert action during Britain's end of empire, it will explore the impact that British and U.S. intelligence had on post-war international relations. While collaborating together in unprecedented ways, it will be shown that, in some instances in the post-war years, British and U.S. intelligence worked at cross-purposes—and were also disastrously penetrated by their opponents, Soviet intelligence. This seminar will also offer some (arguably much-needed) policy-relevant historical lessons for governments and intelligence communities today.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Aerial view of The Pentagon, Arlington, Virginia

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    I Was in the Room and Was Not Ready: The Players, Process, and Struggle of Building the United States Air Force Budget

    Thu., Jan. 26, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In this seminar, the speaker will discuss the context of the current Air Force budget position relative to the other military services, historic budget positions, and potential military spending. Furthermore, the speaker will identify the players, process, and struggle within the Air Force and Department of Defense highlighting the complicated nature of creating a consistent budget narrative. Finally the speaker will introduce two specific policy recommendations provided to Air Force Senior Leadership to enable to Air Force to more effectively posture our corporate Air Force to better support our most senior leaders as they ultimately decide resource allocation to align with our strategy.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Power of Structure: Explaining U.S.-China Relations during the Cold War

    Thu., Jan. 19, 2017 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Many realists have argued that the United States and China had a common power interest in countering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. They argue, however, that the United States and China had had a hostile relationship mainly due to American domestic politics until the Nixon administration finally succeeded in overcoming domestic obstacles to make an alliance with China in 1972. Countering conventional domestic explanations, the speaker presents a structural explanation that U.S.-China relations before and after 1972 are explained by the power structures.  

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Building Trust in Nonproliferation: Nuclear Transparency and the Non-Nuclear-Weapon States

    Thu., Dec. 15, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In this seminar, the speaker will discuss how the concept of nuclear transparency in safeguards and nonproliferation has evolved, how to frame it appropriately for better practice in the non-nuclear-weapon states, fairer assessment by the nuclear-weapon states, more effective safeguards by the IAEA, and how to measure it, qualitatively and quantitatively with the help of a nuclear transparency dataset.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Operation Barbarossa: Panzer IV and Panzer II tanks with crew crossing a field in the Soviet Union, June 1941.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Strategies of Expansion: How Great Powers Rise

    Thu., Dec. 8, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The rise of great powers is one of the key factors in international relations. Yet, scholars and policymakers know little about what strategies great powers use to ensure their rise. The speaker argues that the choice between aggressive and passive strategies is explained by the great powers' relative capabilities.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Missile silo of a SS-24 missile, Strategic Missile Forces Museum in Ukraine. 8 March 2008.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Power of the NPT: International Norms and Nuclear Disarmament of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, 1990–1994

    Thu., Dec. 1, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    There is a lingering disagreement among scholars on how the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) affects nonproliferation and disarmament outcomes, in particular the political motivations of states to acquire or renounce nuclear weapons. Drawing on constructivist scholarship, this research project conceptualizes a range of normative mechanisms through which international norms and regimes could affect domestic political deliberations and proceeds to examine them in the cases of nuclear disarmament of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Guns for Butter: The Rationale for U.S. Military Primacy

    Thu., Nov. 17, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Over the past seven decades, the U.S. government has consciously and consistently spent disproportionate resources to pursue, establish, and maintain military superiority relative to all other states within the international system. Given an ostensibly benign security situation, such preponderance of power appears puzzling. The speaker proposes that U.S. leaders desire to acquire military primacy because they believe it to be necessary for enhancing their country's long-term wealth.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • BRICS heads of state and government hold hands ahead of the 2014 G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia, 15 November 2014.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Recognizing International Status: A Relational Approach

    Thu., Nov. 10, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do some states have more status than others? Practitioners and scholars often refer to the existence of an international pecking order. Yet, though status is used to explain important phenomena in international politics—such as hegemonic wars and the foreign policy of emerging powers—little is known about what status is, how it works, or where it comes from.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the United Nations General Assembly, September 27, 2012.

    UN webcast

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Believing the Unbelievable: The Establishment of a Credible Israeli Military Threat Against Iran, 2011–2012

    Thu., Nov. 3, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In 2011 and 2012, as part of its effort to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, Israel engaged in coercive diplomacy to convince the United States to cast Iran into economic isolation and take certain measures in order to dissuade Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. This seminar will take a closer look at Israel's coercive campaign and draw insights on the origins of threat credibility in international relations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    'We Have Captured Your Women': Explaining Shifts and Shocks in Jihadist Violence

    Thu., Oct. 27, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In recent years, jihadist groups across the Muslim world have engaged in new and more intense types of violence than they have in previous years, including uniquely sadistic forms of violence against women. In order to explain this evolution in jihadist violence, the speaker examines key trigger points that initiated this change in their behavior by looking at the cases of Pakistan, Iraq, and Nigeria.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Mexican Federal Police, May 9, 2015.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Power and Underworld Alliances: A Theory of Alliance Formation among Criminal Groups

    Thu., Oct. 20, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Alliance formation and termination among criminal groups entail costs, not only benefits. Why, then, do criminal organizations enter such costly commitments instead of engaging in sporadic, one-off cooperation, and how do they choose their alliance partners among other criminal groups?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Sri Lankan government victory monument at Puthukkudiyiruppu, July 25, 2016.

    Kate Cronin-Furman

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Human Rights Half Measures: Avoiding Accountability in Post-War Sri Lanka

    Thu., Oct. 13, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will present an argument that states who are reluctant to comply with their human rights obligations employ "half-measures" as a coalition-blocking strategy to prevent the mobilization of cohesive international pressure and censure. A case study of response to international demand for post-conflict justice in Sri Lanka illustrates these dynamics and demonstrates that pursuing half-measures can successfully disrupt international pressure by targeting the set of less engaged states that act as veto points on multilateral action.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Why Do Armed Nonstate Actors Recruit Foreign Fighters? Evidence from the Syrian Civil War

    Thu., Oct. 6, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do some armed nonstate actors turn to foreign fighters while others avoid them? Examining the case of the Islamic State, this seminar presents a theoretical framework to help understand the considerations that shape actors' decisions regarding foreign fighters.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Jutting out in the middle of the East China Sea, Uotsuri is the largest island of five in the Senkaku/Diaoyu chain, October 2, 2012.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Land Grabs and the Evolution of Territorial Conquest

    Thu., Sep. 29, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Territorial conquest once went hand in hand with warfare, but no longer. In aggregate, conquest has declined dramatically. Yet, as Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea evinces, a particular form of conquest—land grabs seizing only a limited part of another state's territory—continues to occur. These land grabs often provoke crises but only rarely lead to war.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Containing China: How the Geopolitics of Asia Check China's Rise

    Thu., Sep. 22, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Many analysts argue that China will soon dominate East Asia militarily. In reality, however, China is far from achieving this goal and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Homeland security missions drain China's military resources; China's neighbors have acquired capabilities that preclude Chinese sea and air control throughout most of the East and South China Seas; and China's economy has stagnated and wracked up liabilities that will limit the growth of China's military budget.  This seminar describes these developments and discusses their implications for U.S. foreign policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    United States Law and Policy on Transitional Justice: Principles, Politics, and Pragmatics

    Thu., May 19, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Drawing from, and building on, his new book, United States Law and Policy on Transitional Justice: Principles, Politics, and Pragmatics (Oxford University Press, 2016), Zachary D. Kaufman explores the U.S. government's support for, or opposition to, certain transitional justice institutions.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Refugees on a boat crossing the Mediterranean sea, heading from Turkish coast to the northeastern Greek island of Lesbos, 29 January 2016.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Displaced: How International Law Can Protect Migrants, Refugees, and International Security

    Mon., May 16, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How can international law better protect both international security and the human rights of people fleeing violence? This presentation will argue that the refugee and migration crisis has resulted not only from intractable violence, but from the world's failure to manage it. It will then propose and sketch new international law to address this crucial human rights problem.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Persuasive Diplomacy: Examining the United States' Use of Persuasion to Shape China's Behavior

    Thu., May 5, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine the use of persuasion as a form of bilateral influence and discuss the aspects of both successful and failed cases of persuasive diplomacy. The speaker will focus specifically on U.S. leaders' attempts to employ persuasion to shape Beijing's behavior and conclude with a discussion on the implications of her findings for U.S. policy towards China.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Lawyers, Guns, and Money? Combating Mexican Transnational Criminal Networks

    Thu., Apr. 28, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The Mexican transnational criminal networks (TCNs) continue to thrive, despite efforts of the U.S. and Mexican governments to degrade them. This seminar will describe some of the strategies that have not been successful, such as interdicting firearms and arresting senior organization members, as well as propose solutions focused on blocking the free flow of profits derived from illegal activities. The ability to launder money keeps the TCNs operating and preventing this would be a significant hindrance to them.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    "Merchants of Menace": Extra-factual Sources of Threat Conception and Proliferation

    Thu., Apr. 21, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    When uncertainty is high, and verifiable facts are inconvenient or few, how do individuals learn about what to fear and how to respond to the threats they have identified? In this seminar, Professor Greenhill will demonstrate that across time and space, during the Internet era as well as long before it, some distinct and oft replicated patterns are discernable, whereby invented, embellished or simply unverified sources of security-related information materially inform and influence real world foreign and defense policy formulation and implementation.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis, Egypt's most dangerous terrorist organisation, has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State via a Twitter account associated with the group.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Fragmentation, Formation, and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups

    Thu., Apr. 14, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    This seminar examines variation among militant splinter groups, and the speaker argues that how and why they break away is key to explaining their ultimate behavior. This research not only demonstrates that how militants form strongly shapes their long-term trajectory, but it also calls into question key assumptions that are central to U.S. counterinsurgency policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Civaux nuclear power plant in the department of Vienne, France, October 9, 2004.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Nuclear Commerce and U.S. Nonproliferation Policy: Controversial Nuclear Assistance by Allies

    Thu., Apr. 7, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    When and under what conditions is U.S. nonproliferation policy successful towards allies that supply controversial nuclear assistance to third party states? This seminar, through focused comparison of cases of nuclear assistance since the 1970s, investigates the challenges posed by allied suppliers and the nuclear industry to U.S. nonproliferation policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    U.S. Nuclear Missile Operations

    Thu., Mar. 31, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The speaker will discuss the U.S. Nuclear ICBM mission and its contribution to nuclear deterrence.  The presentation is focused on day-to-day operations of a U.S. Air Force Missile Wing and the lives of the men and women who operate the world's most powerful weapons.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Taming the Financial Furies? Cooperation and Compliance in the Counter-Terrorism Financing Regime

    Thu., Mar. 24, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Following the money, disrupting financial flows, and undermining terrorist groups' financial bases are all key elements of current global counter-terrorism efforts. Counter-terrorism financing (CTF) initiatives are part of a complex international regime, comprising UN instruments, UN counter-terrorism bodies, and ad hoc global and regional non-governmental institutions, such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Does this system work? How and why? This seminar will examine the state of the regime, its specific compliance-inducing mechanisms, and states' responses to its provisions.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Why Should International Law Matter to Realists?

    Thu., Mar. 17, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Emile Simpson argues that international law is both an expression and a foundation of international order understood as an inter-state system: neither international order nor international law can exist without the other. This argument will be developed through a brief history of the international law of war and peace from the seventeenth century to the present day.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Israeli National Security: A New Strategy for an Era of Change

    Thu., Mar. 10, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The central thesis of this seminar is that the nature of Israel's external environment, of the military threats it faces, and of its society have all changed significantly and that a commensurate change is required in its national security strategy. The speaker will present a proposal for a comprehensive new national security strategy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Pakistan's Nuclear Quest: A Bureaucratic Politics Perspective

    Thu., Mar. 3, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine the causes and consequences of Pakistan's nuclear decision-making in terms of bureaucratic politics and how it impacted the choices made in the acquisition of nuclear capability and shaped the country's nuclear policies, posture, and strategic beliefs.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Celebrating July 4th, 1898—The Triumph of the American battle-ship

    Library of Congress

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Seducing a New Great Power: French Views of Britain and America in 1898

    Thu., Feb. 25, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine French diplomatic perceptions of America's growing power in the context of the Spanish-American War and some steps taken by French diplomats to make a possible Anglo-American alliance less likely.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Angra 1 nuclear power plant, Rio de Janiero, Brazil, November 21, 2008.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Coping with Uncertainty in International Verification: The IAEA and Safeguards Conclusions

    Thu., Feb. 18, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How does the IAEA reach the conclusion that a state is in "non-compliance" with safeguards and thereby alert the international community to the possibility that the state is (or was) seeking to acquire nuclear weapons? This seminar will examine how the IAEA has drawn safeguards conclusions in past cases. It will recommend modifications to the IAEA's reporting procedures to enhance the credibility of its safeguards conclusions and improve opportunities for the timely resolution of compliance issues.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Credibility in Crises: The Role of Leadership Beliefs in State Threat Assessments

    Thu., Feb. 11, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why is it that some threats are believed credible by states during crises, while others are not? How do target states interpret coercive signals intended to establish threat credibility during these periods?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Quest for Deterrence Stability: Israel and Hezbollah After the 2006 War

    Thu., Feb. 4, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will analyze the variation in deterrence dynamics in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and explore the manner in which the two actors have applied deterrence in the wake of the 2006 war.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Securing Allies? U.S. Arms Sales to Petrodollar States

    Thu., Jan. 28, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The United States is the leader in foreign arms sales, dominating a multibillion dollar global market.  Advocates of U.S. arms sales argue these deals secure U.S. allies and influence abroad, while critics charge U.S. military transfers contribute to destructive and destabilizing regional arms races.  This seminar will analyze the different approaches of the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations to arms sales to wealthy petrodollar states during the 1970s, a transformational period in the global foreign arms trade.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Bombed out vehicles in Aleppo during the Syrian civil war, October 6, 2012.

    VOA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Repression Technology: Internet Accessibility and Strategic State Violence

    Thu., Jan. 21, 2016 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The rise of social media as a means of communication has been celebrated as a new way for citizens to voice dissatisfaction with their government and to coordinate dissent. But governments remain in de facto control over Internet accessibility, which means that new digital technology also provides abusive rulers with new repressive tools. In this seminar, the speaker argues that states' Internet control policies go hand in hand with their use of repressive strategies.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Berliners watching a C-54 land at Berlin Tempelhof Airport, 1948.

    USAF

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Behind The Light Switch: The Key Role of Airpower and Logistics

    Thu., Dec. 17, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar offers a framework for assessing the effectiveness of airpower supply operations and examines scenarios where airpower both succeeded—and failed—in order for practitioners and policymakers alike to gain insight into the limits of air mobility forces in strategy development and execution. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    How to Make Friends: Chinese Partnership and Alliance Strategy in Southeast Asia

    Thu., Dec. 10, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    China has been one of the pioneers of using limited alignments in its diplomacy particularly towards Southeast Asia. However, most of the prevailing literature tends to focus on evaluating bilateral relations rather than assessing why and how Beijing deploys its partnership strategy. This seminar presentation aims to fill this gap by exploring the dynamics of Chinese strategic partnerships in Southeast Asia.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The World Forum Convention Center during the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit, March 21, 2014.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Determinants of Effective Nuclear Governance

    Thu., Dec. 3, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do some efforts by the international community to manage and mitigate nuclear risks succeed while others fail? This seminar develops an analytical framework that moves beyond extant explanations focused on self-interest and explores how cognitive beliefs, implementation practices, and their interplay inform interests, thereby shaping institutional effectiveness. Evidence is drawn from three cases of multilateral cooperative engagement in nuclear security and counterterrorism.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Death by Demography: A Theory of the Politics of State Collapse

    Mon., Nov. 23, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    Every day news is littered with stories about the implications of profound demographic shifts faced by the world's states and regions. By researching the political dimensions of demographic dynamics in key states during critical historical periods, this seminar will facilitate a better understanding of demographic politics; and one that is both theoretically and practically informative.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his cabinet.

    Abbie Rowe, NPS

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    "Courage First": Dissent, Debate, and the Origins of U.S. Responsiveness to Mass Killing

    Thu., Nov. 19, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    What explains variation in the U.S. response to mass killings abroad? ISP Research Fellow Amanda J. Rothschild explores this question through the detailed examination of U.S. policy throughout the twentieth century. Drawing on materials from eight archives across the United States as well as oral history interviews, Rothschild proposes a theory explaining how, when, and why the United States pursues a range of policy options.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The American Experience of Nation-Building in South Vietnam

    Thu., Nov. 12, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why have U.S. wartime nation-building efforts so consistently failed? At a time when U.S.-constructed militaries and state institutions are collapsing in Iraq and Afghanistan, this seminar looks back further for an answer — to the U.S. nation-building effort in South Vietnam.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • This map shows Europe in the years after the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle 1748 and the Seven Years' War (1756–1763). Europe did not see another major geographical change until 1766.

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Neighbors and Hegemons: Why States Balance or Bandwagon

    Thu., Nov. 5, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do states sometimes balance against the potential hegemon, while at other times they bandwagon with it? This question is a the center of the balance of power literature, yet current theories provide few concrete predictions of how different states behave. This seminar will examine how the choice is a function of the relative threat each state faces from its neighbors and the potential hegemon. The argument is tested by looking at how Austria responded to France from 1683 to 1797.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Political Economy of Quagmires

    Thu., Oct. 29, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Some civil wars are marked by a surprising confluence of decisions on the part of the participants: the belligerents continue to fight but at low levels of intensity, while foreign states continue to support them in this dead-end endeavor.  What distinguishes these quagmires from other civil wars?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by the Middle East Initiative

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    National Power: Measuring What Matters

    Thu., Oct. 15, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    National power is the most important variable in international relations, yet scholars still lack a reliable method for measuring it. This seminar addresses this problem by developing and testing two schools of thought about how to measure national power.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    True Friend or Treacherous Friend? The Impact of Criminal Group Alliance Behavior on Intrastate Violence

    Thu., Oct. 8, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Drawing on extensive field research in Mexico, Colombia, El Salvador, and Canada, this seminar presents a theoretical framework at the intersection of international relations theory and comparative politics, linking inter-criminal organization alliance formation and termination to the outbreak and persistence of high-intensity criminal violence.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Coup d'Etat of September 11, 1973. Bombing of <em>La Moneda</em> (The Chilean presidential palace).

    Creative Commons

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Intervention and Secrecy in International Politics

    Thu., Oct. 1, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do leaders rely on covert action to overthrow or prop up foreign regimes in some cases but not in others? This seminar proposes a theory that explains how leaders' attitudes toward risk determine whether they will undertake regime change or rescue in public or in secret. Evidence is drawn from four prominent cases of U.S. intervention during the Cold War.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Labor Market for Rebel Recruitment in the Syrian Civil War

    Photo Credit: Loubna Mrie

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Labor Market for Rebel Recruitment in the Syrian Civil War

    Thu., Sep. 24, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar examines the main stages of the development of Islamist groups though the prism of the labor market: how groups start and attract prospective fighters (recruitment), their personnel management policies (retention), and when fighters leave and groups disband (turnover)—relying on the primary field data that the speaker collected on the frontlines of the Syrian civil war.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • U.S. President Richard Nixon, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, during the first official visit by a U.S. president to Israel, June 16&#8211;17, 1974.

    Ya'acov Sa'ar, GPO&#8203;

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Political Effects of Nuclear Proliferation

    Thu., Sep. 17, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine these political effects of nuclear acquisition in the cases of France, China, Israel, and South Africa and reflect on the likely political consequences of eventual Iranian nuclear acquisition.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    One Nation Under God: How Religious Nationalism Imperils International Order

    Thu., May 21, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How should students of international politics understand the global resurgence of religion and religious actors? This seminar introduces the concept of religious nationalism and argues that it poses unique and dangerous threats for stability both within states' borders and across them.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Vietnamese refugees in VNAF Bell UH-1D/H Huey on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Midway (CVA-41) during "Operation Frequent Wind" in the South China Sea, 29 April 1975.

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Law and Politics of Refugee Crises

    Mon., May 18, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    124 Mount Auburn Street - Suite 160, Room 105

    When and why do states assist refugees? Throughout history, states have always crafted international legal agreements to assist refugees that serve both their own interests and the refugees they purport to protect. Even as states provide humanitarian assistance to refugees, they may also use the existence of refugee flows as a political pawn. This seminar will examine this phenomenon with particular reference to the case of Vietnamese refugees following U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Nuclear Non-proliferation and U.S.-ROK Relations: An International History, 1969–1981

    Thu., May 14, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How was South Korea able to pursue its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s? Was U.S. coercive diplomacy the primary driver leading to South Korea's decision to abandon the weapons program? This seminar examines South Korea's nuclear weapons program and U.S. non-proliferation efforts from the Nixon to the Carter Administrations in the broader context of international nuclear history.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Nuclear Waste as a Transnational Problem: Ethics and Governance

    Thu., May 7, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    While there is international consensus that the country producing the nuclear waste is responsible for its disposal, policymakers are increasingly turning to the possibility of multinational repositories. Multinational repositories and other arrangements to jointly store or dispose of nuclear waste have evident safety, security, and non-proliferation benefits, but they also bring a number of ethical concerns.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Inflated Influence of Chemical Weapons on U.S. Foreign Policy

    Thu., Apr. 30, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Do chemical weapons have an inflated influence on U.S. foreign policy? This seminar examines the rationale behind recent military-centric responses to chemical weapons proliferation and proposes that this rationale is based on generalized perceptions that belie historical scrutiny.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Are You Certain? Leaders, Misplaced Certainty, and War in U.S. Foreign Policy

    Thu., Apr. 23, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Does greater certainty about an opponent's military and political characteristics cause conflict or peace? This seminar offers a theory of (1) when presidents and advisors are most likely to make estimation errors that result in misplaced certainty and (2) how such errors are a cause of conflict. Evidence is drawn from prominent cases in U.S. foreign policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Alliance Politics in a Nuclear-armed World

    Thu., Apr. 16, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How has the advent of nuclear weapons affected the politics of decision-making and control in military alliances? This presentation seeks to develop a new basis for analyzing contemporary military alliances and predicting their cohesion, durability, and structure.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Open Relationship: U.S.-Singapore Naval Relations and the Future of Security in Southeast Asia

    Thu., Apr. 9, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The U.S.-Singapore naval relationship is arguably the most overlooked yet consequential security relationship in Southeast Asia. Through a correlation of interests, events, and political pragmatism, both states have fashioned a new model of security cooperation and bilateral relations in a region referred to by some as "Asia's Cauldron."

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Where You Stand Depends On Where You Sit: Political Violence and the Hierarchies of National Movements

    Thu., Apr. 2, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar offers a theory of behavior based on a group's position of power in its movement hierarchy, which will be analyzed using national movements and insurgencies in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Negotiating with China: Successes and Failures in U.S.-China Diplomacy

    Thu., Mar. 26, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine key negotiations between China and the United States, from the opening of relations in 1972 to the present day. It will discuss China's core principles and interests that serve as the foundation for its positions in negotiations, and the different strategies that the United States has used with varying levels of success to encourage China to compromise and cooperate. The discussion will also address the broader literatures on diplomacy and foreign policy decision-making.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    What Do Nuclear Weapons Offer States? A Theory of State Foreign Policy Response to Nuclear Acquisition

    Thu., Mar. 19, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How do nuclear weapons change the foreign policies of the states that acquire them? This seminar offers a theory explaining the origins of six foreign policy behaviors that nuclear acquisition may facilitate. The theory describes which of these behaviors states are likely to find attractive and thus which behaviors states are likely to use nuclear acquisition to facilitate.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Competing Visions of Grand Strategy and the Consequences for Nuclear Proliferation

    Thu., Mar. 12, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a vigorous public and academic debate on which grand strategy the United States should pursue. It has also narrowed to essentially three positions. First, deep engagement proponents define U.S. interests broadly and advocate an expansive role for the U.S. military in the world. Second, restraint proponents define U.S. interests narrowly and advocate a moderately reduced U.S. military role. Third, neo-isolationists also define U.S. interests narrowly but advocate a drastically reduced U.S. military role.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Paradox of Forever War and the Concept of the Enemy in International Law

    Thu., Mar. 5, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will present a historical account of how and why evolving concepts of the enemy in international law have influenced the boundaries between war and peace, specifically in terms of encouraging either clearly delimited or open-ended conflicts.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, meets with the Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of the signing of agreements at the Hyatt Hotel, Ahmedabad, September 17, 2014.

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Do Rising Powers Know They Are Rising? Beliefs and the Identification of Rising Powers

    Thu., Feb. 26, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Even though the concept of rising powers is central to international relations and considered crucial for answering questions about war and peace, the theoretical literature on rising powers is surprisingly scanty. One of the most prominent deficits is that theorists frame rising powers in terms of their "material capabilities" or their military and economic power. There is little attention paid to the domestic beliefs of rising powers and no acknowledgement among either academics or policy analysts that rising powers could have a commonality of beliefs. Using both historical and contemporary cases of rising powers, the project shows this lack has resulted in the ignoring of some rising powers, the mis-identification of others, and has dangerous consequences. 

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • 205 million USD of drug money seized by the Mexican Police and the Drug Enforcement Administration in Mexico City, March 2007.

    DEA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    After El Chapo: Leadership Decapitation and Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs)

    Thu., Feb. 19, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The February 2014 capture of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, head of the Sinaloa organization, appeared to be a victory against the Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTOs). It was not, in part because of inherent problems with decapitation as a tactic, and in part because of the particular goals and structures of the DTOs. Decapitation remains an attractive approach, however, because of the audiences it reaches and not because it degrades the targeted organizations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation: How States Learned to Love Getting the Bomb

    Thu., Feb. 12, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will focus on how states pursue nuclear weapons, disaggregating the different strategic choices states face when they think about acquiring nuclear weapons.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Anti-Japanese protest in Guizhou, China, Sept. 18, 2012. The sign reads: "Resist Japan and defend the Diaoyu Islands."

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Rational Nationalism on the Rise: The Origins and Consequences of Chinese Nationalistic Protest

    Thu., Feb. 5, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine Chinese nationalism and foreign relations on three levels: first, when protest will arise in response to an international incident; second, what explains Chinese official response to nationalism based on signaling and concerns of domestic stability; and, finally, why outside states will change their behavior or policies in response to nationalistic protest in China.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • United Nations and Police Nationale d’Haïti vehicles during a joint operation in Cité Soleil, 2014.

    Wesley Santos

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Building States, Undermining Public Order? Lessons from the UN Stabilization Mission to Haiti (2004–2014)

    Thu., Jan. 29, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar explores how security sector reform, a core element of the statebuilding paradigm, affects the production of public order and ultimately violence in fragile states.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Same as the Old Boss? Leaders and Nuclear Abandonment

    Thu., Jan. 22, 2015 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How much do individual leaders matter? This seminar looks at the decision to forgo the pursuit of nuclear weapons and finds that new leaders are likely to abandon proliferation efforts begun by their predecessors.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson meeting in the Oval Office of the White House. 28 March 1966.

    Yoichi Okamoto

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    No Dramatic Steps, Only Buying Time: Policy Lessons from India's Proliferation Drift of the 1960s

    Thu., Dec. 18, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    What can scholars and policymakers learn from U.S. nonproliferation policy toward hard cases like India? Can the United States prevent proliferation when the state already has the indigenous capability to produce fissile materials and has high regional threat perception?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Nepali Maoists, circa 2000.

    Subodh R. Serpali

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Between Mao and Gandhi: Strategies of Violence and Nonviolence in Revolutionary Movements

    Thu., Dec. 11, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    From Eastern Europe to South Africa to the Arab Spring, nonviolent action has proven capable of overthrowing autocratic regimes and bringing about revolutionary political change. In fact, recent research suggests that nonviolent movements are more than twice as effective in achieving their goals than violent ones. So why do some political movements nevertheless believe it necessary to take up arms? Can they be convinced otherwise?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • B-52 in flight FILE PHOTO -- Air Combat Command's B-52 is a long-range, heavy bomber that can perform a variety of missions.  It can carry nuclear or conventional ordnance with worldwide precision navigation capability.

    USAF

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    U.S. Air Force Nuclear Operations: A Period of Change

    Thu., Dec. 4, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In this seminar, Lieutenant Colonel Brandon Parker will provide an overview of U.S. Air Force nuclear operations to include the bomber and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) missions. He will also discuss the Air Force's ongoing Force Improvement Program implemented in early 2014 to strengthen the organizational culture of the nuclear forces. As a previous commander of a nuclear-capable bomber unit, Brandon Parker will share his unique insight about the nuclear mission, its challenges, and the likelihood of the improvement program's success.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Security Policy Analysis in Revolutionary States: The Case of Iran

    Thu., Nov. 20, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How can scholars and policymakers effectively explain security decisions in revolutionary states or states where religion or ideology influences security policies? The lack of an adequate approach has led to misunderstandings and occasionally claims that the decision-making process in these states is inexplicable. The presentation explores the security decisions of the Islamic Republic of Iran by proposing a new model for analyzing decisions in revolutionary states.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Pelindaba Nuclear Research Centre, South Africa, Sept. 23, 2006. This is South Africa's main nuclear research centre, which was the location where South Africa's nuclear weapons of the 1970s were developed, constructed, and stored.

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Deproliferation Dynamics: Why States Give Up Nuclear Weapons Programs

    Mon., Nov. 17, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    Academic scholarship has been largely successful in understanding and identifying the primary motivations behind nuclear weapons exploration and acquisition and has made significant strides in analyzing the substantial impact that nuclear weapons have had on various other issue areas—suggesting that nuclear weapons have important political effects for their possessors in conflict and broader bargaining interactions. A less-studied phenomenon, though equally interesting and policy-relevant, is that of deproliferation, the process by which states decide to abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions or nascent programs. Since 1945, three times as many states have started and stopped nuclear weapons programs than have successfully proliferated.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Republican Palace in Baghdad, Iraq, 22 Feb. 2010. The palace served as the headquarters of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, and the Green Zone developed around it.

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Follies and Fiascoes: Why Does U.S. Foreign Policy Keep Failing?

    Thu., Nov. 13, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The end of the Cold War left the United States in a remarkable position: It was far and away the world's most powerful country, and it was on good terms with most of the world's major powers. Despite these advantages, its foreign policy record since then is mostly one of disappointments and sometimes costly failures. These recurring follies are due in part to America's structural position in the international system, but they also reveal some recurring weaknesses in America's foreign policy establishment and its overall approach to foreign affairs.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Official Irish Republican Army volunteers in Belfast, April 1972

    Wikimedia

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Consequences of Terrorist Fragmentation

    Thu., Nov. 6, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    States commonly employ a divide and conquer strategy against violent nonstate actors, aiming to fragment terrorist groups, shatter their organizational networks, and compel existing members to renounce violence. Surprisingly, there has been little systematic analysis of precisely how internal splintering affects the trajectories of terrorist organizations and why the subsequent splinter groups develop in particular ways. This presentation highlights a new theory of organizational fragmentation that ultimately connects the different causes of group splintering with particular outcomes, and it presents preliminary evidence on the development of terrorist splinter organizations over time.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • View of the Israel-Lebanon international border area, taken from an armored IDF vehicle.

    Johnny Zoo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Deterring Non-State Actors (and Vice Versa): The Case of Israel-Hezbollah

    Thu., Oct. 30, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    In his seminar, Dr. Sobelman will outline the dynamics that have shaped the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since the early 1990s and explore the manner in which the latter has in recent years accompanied its vast military procurement with a calculated public deterrence campaign vis-à-vis Israel.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Pvt. Jacob Pharr, a radio operator with U.S. Army Europe's 1st Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment, and his Bosnian-Herzegovinian partner pull security while on an ambush Situational Training Exercise held at the Slunj Training Area 1 June 2012.

    U.S. Army Europe

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Military and Police Reform After Civil War: Political Survival and the Impact of Intervention on Postwar Security

    Thu., Oct. 23, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar explores the politics of state-building to examine the effects of intervention on the governance of security forces. Viewing the security sector as a central component of state authority reveals how the nature of internal political threats shapes the way security forces are governed and the opportunities for external actors to influence them. The seminar will explore the implications of these findings for the study of violence and intervention in weak states and for the design and conduct of peacekeeping, stabilization, and security assistance programs.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Pipes for a natural gas pipeline that will connect Russia and Germany, 23 February 2011.

    Wikimedia CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Energy as a Tool of Foreign Policy

    Mon., Oct. 20, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    The presentation will analyze the conditions under which states use energy trade to promote foreign policy goals, focusing on natural gas trade. It will discuss use of energy trade as a foreign policy tool by natural gas supplier, consumer, and transit states. The speaker will discuss the  interaction between natural gas trade and political relations between trading states.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb combatants in the Algerian desert, 27 February 2014.

    VOA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Expansion and Decline: Al Qaeda's Franchising Strategy and Its Consequences

    Thu., Oct. 16, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This presentation seeks to problematize al-Qaeda's franchising strategy. Why did al-Qaeda choose to branch out and what accounts for its decision to enter some arenas and not others? Rather than viewing it as an inevitable expansion strategy, this presentation underscores franchising as just one of several ways transnational terrorist organizations can formally expand. It also analyzes models for formal expansion by examining their political aspects in addition to the operational ones.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Why Not Nip It in the Bud? A Reigning Power's Economic Choice in Balancing against a Challenging Power

    Thu., Oct. 9, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why does a reigning power not supplement military balancing against a challenging power by reducing bilateral trade ties? This seminar explores how these two factors together constrain the reigning state's decision over bilateral commerce when balancing militarily against the challenging state. The seminar will also examine whether the United States would be able to contain China both economically and militarily if Beijing were to grow more assertive and openly challenge the U.S.-led international order.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Great Power Politics and the Ukrainian Crisis: Managing Russia's Rivalry in a Political-Economic Context

    Thu., Oct. 2, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar assesses the relationship between the West and Russia as the sum of great power reactions to the Ukrainian crisis and, specifically, the annexation of Crimea.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Syrian refugee children outside their temporary home in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, 5 November 2013.

    UK DFID Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Iraqi Refugee Crisis: Lessons for Syria and Beyond

    Thu., May 22, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Despite the existence of international law designed to protect people fleeing persecution, the international community's response to population displacement varies greatly, with some people given access to resettlement in the West while others are summarily returned to their countries of origin. What explains variation in the international community's response to cases of population displacement? In this seminar, Dr. Goldenziel will explain how the political and security interests of the United States determines if, when, and how the United Nations will call mass population displacement a refugee crisis and provide those displaced with humanitarian assistance.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • U.S. Air Force Gen. Douglas Fraser, center right, U.S. Southern Command, hosts an honor cordon to welcome Chinese Minister of National Defense Gen. Liang Guanglie to the command's HQ in Miami, May 8, 2012.

    U.S. Army Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Building Trust from the Bottom Up: U.S.-Chinese Engagement on Nuclear Issues

    Mon., May 19, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    This presentation seeks to address the question of whether operational-level engagement between the United States and China increases China's trust towards the United States in their nuclear relationship. And if so, why is this the case and how does it take place?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution & Islamic Republic of Iran Army used many zu-23 (pictured here) in the Iran-Iraq war.

    IRGC Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Faith and Firepower: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the Iran-Iraq War

    Thu., May 15, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine how Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has analyzed the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) in its publications on the conflict. It will explain the pervasive and persistent significance of the Iran-Iraq War for the IRGC and will reveal how scholarly oversight of the IRGC's representations of the war has produced inaccurate and oversimplified generalizations about the organization.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • USAF B-52 air-refueling over the Indian Ocean during Operation Enduring Freedom, May 19, 2005.

    USAF Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Air Force 101, the Air Force Nuclear Enterprise, and the B-52

    Mon., May 12, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The speaker will provide an Air Force 101 briefing that covers why we need an Air Force, who they are, what they do, and how they do it. In addition, he will also provide an update on the Air Force Nuclear Enterprise and an informative B-52 Capabilities Brief. Finally, he will briefly discuss his research on the history of bilateral nuclear disarmament agreements, lessons learned, and the future of multilateral agreements.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Cascade of gas centrifuges used to produce enriched uranium.

    DOE Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Arms Denial and Its Strategic Implications

    Thu., May 8, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Recent years have seen an increase in the number of "arms denial" attempts, where the acquisition of new capabilities by a given country or non-state actor has been obstructed using a variety of non-cooperative tools that are short of war. Examples include shipment interdictions on the high seas, limited military strikes, and cyber attacks. What are the root causes of this increase? What can be expected in the future?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Role of Domestic Politics in Explaining Rising China's Regional Foreign Policy

    Map-fan Image

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Role of Domestic Politics in Explaining Rising China's Regional Foreign Policy

    Thu., Apr. 24, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do rising powers practice coercive diplomacy towards geographically proximate states during certain crises but not others? Focusing on rising China's behavior towards Japan and Korea, the seminar will suggest policy implications for the United States on managing its bilateral relations with states that border rising China.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    All Options on the Table? Nuclear Proliferation, Preventive War, and a Leader's Decision to Intervene

    Thu., Apr. 10, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Under what conditions do states use preventive military force to forestall or destroy an adversary's nuclear weapons program? If nuclear weapons are so dangerous, why do leaders disagree about the magnitude of the threat posed by specific nuclear programs?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A close-up view of the Za'atri camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan as seen on July 18, 2013, from a helicopter carrying U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh.

    State Dept. Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Syria's Spillover: A View from Jordan

    Thu., Apr. 3, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Based on her fieldwork in Jordan this winter, including her interviews at Zaatari refugee camp and with refugees and rebel fighters in urban areas near the border, Porges will provide an on-the-ground perspective of how the Syrian refugee crisis is affecting Jordan. Her seminar will provide an overview of the political and security implications, a review of how local actors, NGOs, and the international community have responded to date, and a discussion of what the future might hold — for Syrians, Jordanians, and the region as a whole.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Inside the Labyrinth: Policymaking in Iran

    Thu., Mar. 27, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How does strategic decision-making occur in Iran? And how does this translate into the domestic policymaking process of the state? This seminar will shed light on the opaque institutional architecture of the Islamic Republic and its impact on strategic governance. It will also examine the broader factional and ideological dynamics at play within the ruling elite in forging state policy.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Ali Rage with recruits for Jaysh al-Hisba (Army of Verification) &#8212;  a kind of police force, February 2011.

    Al Shabaab Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Boys: Ideological Extremism and Islamist In-fighting in the Somali Civil War

    Thu., Mar. 20, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The radicalization of domestic Islamist groups in weak or failed states is one of the most serious international security concerns in the world today. What causes some of these groups to adopt transnational political agendas and identities, while others maintain a nationalist focus? Why do some insurgent groups seek affiliations with transnational extremists, while others abjure such ties? To examine these questions, this seminar will track the ideological evolution of the Islamist insurgency in Somalia from 2006–2013.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on June 25, 2013.

    State Dept. Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Saudi Arabia and Nuclear Weapons: What Would Machiavelli Say?

    Thu., Mar. 13, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will provide a historical overview of U.S. efforts to convince its Cold War–era allies (Taiwan, South Korea, Pakistan, and Israel) from going nuclear. It will then discuss what lessons policymakers can draw as the United States confronts the possibility of contemporary allies, such as Riyadh, considering acquiring nuclear capabilities.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Attacking the Network: A member of the Afghan Local Police interviews villagers in Paktika Province, Afghanistan, April 2013.

    William Payne Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Adaptation in War: A "Boots on Ground" Perspective on the Counter-IED Fight in Afghanistan

    Thu., Mar. 6, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Scholars have studied the sources of military innovation extensively. However, innovation's actual battlefield effects are under-examined. More often than not, an innovation's effect on the battlefield depends on how well the adversary adapts to it. As part of his ongoing research on the effects of military innovation on war outcomes, Matthew Tattar will discuss the efforts of the Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) to lead the U.S. adaptation against insurgents' innovative use of the IED in Afghanistan.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Go Your Own Way? Alliance Coercion, Strategic Reassurance, and West German Nuclear Ambitions

    Gene Gerzhoy Image

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Go Your Own Way? Alliance Coercion, Strategic Reassurance, and West German Nuclear Ambitions

    Thu., Feb. 27, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    Note new location!

    What is the effect of alliances on nuclear proliferation? On the one hand, theories of assurance contend that states with a powerful ally can forego indigenous nuclear capabilities. On the other hand, critics argue that external reliance violates the "self-help" principle in world politics and cite evidence of nuclear ambitions among numerous U.S. allies. To resolve this debate, the speaker proposes a theory of alliance coercion and tests its predictions against evidence from the West German case.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • An Indian Agni-II intermediate range ballistic missile on a road-mobile launcher, displayed at the Republic Day Parade on New Delhi's Rajpath, January 26, 2004.

    Agência Brasil Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Between Power and Pride: Status-Seeking and Nuclear Proliferation in India

    Thu., Feb. 20, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will discuss a plausibility probe of two proliferation models by applying them to India's nuclear testing policy, a country equally concerned about its lack of power and social esteem.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    National Security Decision-Making in Israel

    Thu., Feb. 13, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Senior Fellow Charles Freilich will discuss his recent book, Zion's Dilemmas: How Israel Makes National Security Policy (Cornell University Press, 2012), a first of its kind portrayal of Israel's national security decision-making processes.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Spc. Justin Slagle returns to Forward Operating Base Lane in a UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter after an air assault mission in the Zabul province of Afghanistan, Oct. 15, 2009.

    U.S. Army Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Afghanistan: A Post-Mortem of U.S. Policymaking

    Thu., Feb. 6, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Many accounts describe how — but not why — the United States faltered in Afghanistan after 2001. In this seminar, the speaker, who spent five years based in Kabul, identifies the underlying causes of U.S. policymaking errors in Afghanistan.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • God, Country, and the Bomb: How Religious and National Identities Shape Nuclear Narrative in the Muslim World

    M-ATF Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    God, Country, and the Bomb: How Religious and National Identities Shape Nuclear Narrative in the Muslim World

    Thu., Jan. 30, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Iran and Pakistan have generated much debate with their respective nuclear dossier and nuclear weapons program. Both countries are Muslim-majority states, where religion and nationalism have shaped nuclear narrative. Ariane Tabatabai will examine the complex relationship between religious and national identities in both countries and their influence in fashioning nuclear narrative.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Propaganda Cartel—Extra-Governmental Organizations and the Cold-War Consensus

    Thu., Jan. 23, 2014 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    What are the sources of interest group influence in the politics of U.S. security policy? What causes some groups to thrive and others falter? This seminar offers a theory that influence derives from the distribution of relevant information, the preferences of White House occupants, and public beliefs about the credibility of political actors.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Korean Dispute over the Northern Limit Line: Economics, International Law, and Security

    Thu., Dec. 12, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    An equally likely candidate for starting a conflict between North and South Korea is a disputed maritime boundary called the Northern Limit Line (NLL) drawn in the Yellow Sea (West Sea). This seminar examines the roots of the dispute, the economic, international law, and security dimensions of the issue and explores possible solutions to the problem.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • President Barack Obama at a National Security Council Meeting in the Situation Room of the White House, March 16, 2009.

    White House Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Do Great Powers Plan Grand Strategies?

    Thu., Dec. 5, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Do the executives of great powers formulate and work to implement grand strategic plans? Or are great powers' grand strategies the products of Congressional/legislative, bureaucratic, and/or interest group politics? The latter explanations are overwhelmingly emphasized in the existing literature on explaining grand strategy. Surprisingly little attention has been paid to the logically prior question of the extent to which great powers' grand strategies are the products of the deliberate strategic planning of their executives.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Disarming Syria: The Chemical Weapons Challenge

    Thu., Nov. 21, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the United Nations are undertaking an unprecedented operation in Syria: disarming a country of a particular type of weaponry in the midst of a civil war. Professor Findlay will discuss the issue in the context of the overlapping legal, institutional, technical, and political demands being made of Syria and the prospects for success of the operation.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Reassurance and Deterrence from Dominance: Britain and the Rise of the United States, 1837–1846

    Thu., Nov. 14, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    This seminar is postponed until further notice.

    Is it more difficult to reassure or deter a rising state?  Many argue that rising states are greedy and expansionist, making them difficult to deter but not particularly fearful.  In contrast, this seminar argues that even expansionist rising states are, first and foremost, weak states that are more easily threatened than emboldened.  Evidence from America's rise to regional power will be presented.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Arctic Shock: Using Climate Change to Test Theories of Resource Competition

    Thu., Nov. 14, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    Why do some leaders project power to compete over resources while others handle their disputes via legal norms and international institutions? This seminar develops a theory that utilizes domestic institutions and economic interests to explain why leaders project power to compete over resources.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Gas centrifuges for uranium enrichment recovered from the <em>BBC China</em> in Italy, en route to Libya, in 2003. They were later taken to the Y-12 complex in the USA where this photo was taken (with a Y-12 guard also in the photo).

    DOE Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Problem with "Mixed" Strategies: Revisiting Libya's Decision to Give Up its Nuclear Program

    Thu., Nov. 7, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Libya's decision to give up its nuclear weapons ambitions has been interpreted by most observers as support for the idea that mixed strategies are good policy. Although they disagree over which particular tools of influence were most important, most agree that some mixture of coercion and inducements explains Gaddafi's decision to disarm. This is not, however, supported by the evidence.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

    Mon., Nov. 4, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye C, 5th Floor

    Author Erik Dahl will discuss his new book, Intelligence and Surprise Attack: Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond (Georgetown University Press, 2013), which examines the puzzle of why surprise attacks so often succeed, even though in most cases warnings had been available beforehand.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A U.S. Army soldier coaches an Afghan National Police officer as he prepares to fire a rocket-propelled grenade launcher during a skills assessment mission on a range in Beshud, Afghanistan, Feb. 13, 2008.

    U.S. Army Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Spoiling Police Reform: Nationalism, Informal Networks, and International Authority

    Thu., Oct. 31, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    When and how can the international community build democratic police forces in war-torn countries? Police reform efforts are often premised on the theory that international authority and resources can defeat domestic obstruction. However, by analyzing police reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, where international leverage was greatest, the speaker finds that nationalism and informal economic networks motivate and enable domestic actors to block reform in predictable ways. The presentation offers implications for police reform and state building in diverse war-torn societies, including urging the international community to avoid reform goals that threaten the core interests of domestic actors.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meets with Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., July 29, 2013.

    State Dept. Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Logic of Using Symbolic Reparations in Conflict Negotiation: Insights from Israel/Palestine

    Thu., Oct. 24, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    To illustrate the potential effects of symbolic strategies, the seminar considers the application of symbolic reparations to the "historical" case of the 1948 Palestinian refugees in the context of Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The empirical analysis draws on previous rounds of official negotiations, on track-two workshops and initiatives, and on civil-society projects.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Barclay's Bank, Jerusalem, circa 1940

    Matson Photo Service

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    A History of Money in Palestine: The Case of the Frozen Bank Accounts of 1948

    Thu., Oct. 17, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will discuss an episode in Palestinian history, which has never before been written about, and use it as a prism through which to explore how the fact of statelessness, which is generally thought of as political condition, directly affects the economic and monetary lives of ordinary people.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Sailors from the guided-missile destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81) board the Chinese People's Liberation Army (Navy) frigate Yi Yang (FF 548) to meet prior to conducting a bilateral counter-piracy exercise in the Gulf of Aden,  Sep. 17, 2012

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Shadowing the Hegemon? Global Norms, National Identity, and the Military Trajectories of Rising Powers

    Thu., Oct. 10, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    What factors shape the military trajectories of rapidly industrializing rising powers in the modern era? This seminar will explore the role of two generally overlooked non-material variables—the normative influence of the contemporaneous hegemon and national identity—in shaping a rising power's military force development and employment decisions during periods of rapid development. It will also discuss some of the implications for contemporary U.S. strategy toward rising China.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Entangling Alliances? Assessing the Security Risks of America's Defense Pacts

    Thu., Oct. 3, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    A large literature on U.S. foreign policy takes for granted that America's alliances entangle the United States into military conflicts that it might otherwise avoid.  Yet proponents of this argument have presented very little evidence that this entanglement mechanism has actually played a significant role in U.S. foreign policy. The speaker looks for such evidence in all post-1945 U.S. military conflicts and finds hardly any.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The More Things Change? Nuclear Substitution and Pakistan's Conventional Doctrine

    Thu., Sep. 26, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The presentation will ask why Pakistan's conventional doctrine has undergone such little change after nuclear acquisition and explain that territorial satisfaction is crucial to understanding how states respond to nuclearization.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Friend in the Closet? Material Interests and Ideology in India-Israel Relations

    Thu., May 23, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will provide an overview of India-Israel relations and will argue that there is a gap between India's material interests and its ideological positions and that this gap might be detrimental to the future of India-Israel bilateral relations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Iran: Compliance at the Cost of Nonproliferation?

    Mon., May 20, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Rubenstein Building - Room G20

    Iran's failure to comply with its non-proliferation obligations is viewed as one of the most urgent threats to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and international peace and security. Given that diplomacy has thus far not been successful in changing that country's conduct, the only available options for dealing with the problem seem to be increasingly crippling sanctions and, possibly, military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. The seminar presentation challenges the above assumptions by drawing attention to the absence of serious diplomatic efforts and lack of understanding of what is at stake for Iran in the dispute.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    NATO and the Projection of Partial Democracy: The Eastern Neighborhood, the Western Balkans, Afghanistan, and Libya

    Thu., May 16, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    NATO by its rise as a political actor since the end of the Cold War has emphasized democratization as an increasingly important soft power objective in its relations with third countries. The seminar explains NATO's democratic agenda focusing on two regions and two operations: (1) the 'halted' enlargement vis-à-vis Georgia and Ukraine; (2) the ongoing enlargement process in the Western Balkans; (3) the state-building effort and drawdown from Afghanistan; (4) the 2011 intervention in Libya in the context of the Arab Spring.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Keel plate laid for USS United States, 18 April 1949. The carrier was cancelled on 23 April 1949.

    U.S. Navy Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Interservice Rivalry and Civilian Control

    Thu., May 9, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Is rivalry between uniformed military services harmful or beneficial in achieving healthy civil-military relations in the United States? This seminar will explore early-stage work that is part of an effort to fit the widely-recognized phenomenon of interservice rivalry into a more general theory of U.S. civil-military relations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Clausewitz and the Politics of War

    Mon., May 6, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Rubenstein Building - Room G20

    Clausewitz's aphorism that "war is merely the continuation of policy by other means" is widely quoted but often misconceived. The author of a new book, War, Clausewitz and the Trinity, Thomas Waldman will clarify the Prussian theorist's insights into the fundamental relationship between war and politics, highlight pitfalls in interpretation, and underline its critical importance for understanding contemporary war.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Oil wells and camp of the Iraq Petroleum Company. (5 miles S. of Kirkuk). Kirkuk District. An oil driller at work,1932.

    Matson Photo Collection

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Open Door and U.S. Policy in Iraq between the World Wars

    Thu., May 2, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Scholarship on U.S. involvement in the Middle East has traditionally maintained that after the Senate rejected the Treaty of Versailles and refused to participate in the League of Nations mandate system, the United States returned to political isolation and watched events in the Middle East passively from the sidelines. This presentation challenges that narrative by arguing that the United States did have both interests in and a policy concerning Iraq during that time. The open door policy the U.S. government set out in the correspondence with Britain in 1920–1921 represents a full and cogent policy on Iraq that was advanced throughout the interwar period to protect American interests and standing in that country.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Better Than The Truth: Extra-factual Sources of Threat Conception and Proliferation

    Thu., Apr. 25, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Drawing upon findings from an array of original public opinion surveys, survey-based experiments, and cross-national case studies, Greenhill will illustrate the sometimes surprisingly influential role that such sources of "extra-factual" information (EFI) can play both in the conception of national security threats and in the formulation and implementation of government responses to such threats. Both micro-foundations of belief in these sources of EFI and the macro-level consequences if and when such ideas become widely disseminated and adopted will be explored; cases to be examined range from pre–World War I Britain through Nazi Germany to post-9/11 America.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Confronting the Reality of a Rising Nuclear-armed China

    Thu., Apr. 18, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The rise of a nuclear-armed China is presenting the United States and its allies in the Asian-Pacific region with a new reality that they must confront. The presentation includes a brief discussion of the ideological and economic drivers behind China's rise, as well as its emergence in Asian-Pacific regional affairs. The presentation also discusses China's nuclear policies and forces, and how they are shaped by external factors such as ballistic missile defense.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    1957: The Origins of European Union & Lessons for Today

    Thu., Apr. 4, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The appearance of supranational union in the 1950s was the outcome of a contested attempt to remake the states system in Europe following the cataclysm of the Second World War. The project of Six yielded five major efforts at institutionalization in the lead up to the 1957 Rome attainment. Some, like the Coal and Steel Community, resulted in major triumphs of integration; others, such as the Defense Community, were sensational failures. This seminar will assess how and why integration progressed even as it failed so spectacularly, drawing insights for the resolution of today's European crisis.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Arctic Power Projection: Using Climate Change to Test Theories of Resource Competition

    Thu., Mar. 28, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do some states project military power to secure resources while others do not? The exogenous shock of climate change in the Arctic represents an opportunity to test theories of why leaders project power. Climate change is rapidly altering the Arctic environment; receding ice has heightened the appeal of extracting Arctic energy resources. To test competing theories, the speaker examines how governments reacted to this exogenous change by observing how leaders shifted their Arctic foreign policy, military force structure, and force deployments. His results inform both the geopolitics of energy and the political implications of climate change.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A Palestinian child stands outside a vandalized mosque in the West Bank town of Jabaa, June 19, 2012. Acts of vandalism against Palestinian property are perpetrated by radical settlers in retaliation for government settlement policy that they oppose.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Playing with Fire: "Price-Tag" Violence in Israel and the West Bank

    Thu., Mar. 21, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The burning of Palestinian mosques, intimidating graffiti on the homes of political activists, and the destruction of equipment at Israeli military bases: this is "price-tag"(tag mehir). But who are the perpetrators and what are their objectives? This presentation will explore the causes, effects, and implications of "price-tag."

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The underground command post of the Strategic Air Command, circa 1965. In the event of a war with the Soviet Union, most U.S. nuclear forces would have received their striking orders from this room.

    National Security Archive

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Crisis in Command: Origins of U.S. Nuclear Command and Control, 1958–1962

    Thu., Mar. 14, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Throughout the Cold War, many officials and analysts feared that nuclear warfare could not be controlled. Nuclear forces were so complex, and their leadership so vulnerable to attack, that a major confrontation might quickly collapse into random violence against civilian populations. Despite more than $1 trillion in funding, the search for satisfaction outlasted the Cold War itself. This seminar explores the historical origins of U.S. nuclear command and control in the five years after Sputnik, when the issue first attracted high-level attention.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Regional Security-Oriented Organizations and Institutional Change: The Case of ASEAN

    Thu., Mar. 7, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Nye A, 5th Floor

    Why and how do regional security-orientated institutions change over time? Examining the case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the periods 1968–1976 and 1988–1997, this seminar will explain the causes and processes of ASEAN's transformation, with implications for today's strategic landscape in East Asia in the context of China's rise.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Terrorist Rehabilitation: Fact or Fiction

    Thu., Feb. 21, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Is it possible to deradicalize a terrorist? If so, how? Do these programs impact other national security initiatives, including efforts to combat terrorist recruitment? Even as attempts to rehabilitate terrorists spring up around the world, scholars and policymakers struggle to understand their effects and determine whether they help mitigate the threat of captured terrorists or counter radicalization in other populations. This seminar addresses these questions by evaluating the impact of terrorist deradicalization in Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and beyond, exploring how these programs may shape future global counterterrorism efforts.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    George W. Bush and the Middle East

    Thu., Feb. 14, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    To what extent, if at all, do ideas contribute to the occurrence of war and peace? This seminar examines the roots of George W. Bush's Middle East policy, with a particular focus on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It will identify the ways in which ideas shape policy—and policy the practice of international affairs. A special emphasis will be placed on the role of presidential decision-making.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A couple walks next to sign hung by an extremist right wing group depicting U.S. President Barack Obama, next to the settlement of Efrat, seen in the background, in the West Bank, June 19, 2009.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The American Discourse on the Israel-Palestine Conflict

    Thu., Feb. 7, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Is the settlement project harmful for Israel? What does a U.S. push for a two-state solution mean? What exactly is up for negotiation, and why is the peace process not moving forward? If one asks four different people, one may get four fundamentally different answers.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Looking Up: Rising States and Great Power Decline since 1945

    Thu., Jan. 31, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Will a rising China challenge the interests and security of a declining United States? If so, when and under what circumstances? This project offers a theory to explain when and why rising states challenge declining great powers rather than pursue strategies of accommodation and restraint.Please join us! Coffee and tea provided.

    Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Heading South: Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations and U.S. Foreign Policy

    Thu., Jan. 24, 2013 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Since 2006, drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) have contributed to over 60,000 deaths in Mexico. Key civic institutions such as the police and the army have been compromised by the DTOs' activities. Yet U.S. opinion leaders and foreign policy officials have virtually ignored this profound challenge, despite the two countries' extensive geographic, economic, and cultural ties. Speaker Evelyn Krache Morris (Ph.D., MBA) will explore possible reasons why the DTOs receive so little attention and the potential ramifications of this neglect.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Liancourt Rocks, known as Dokdo (or Tokto,  literally "solitary island") in Korean, as Takeshima (literally "bamboo island") in Japanese.

    Wikimedia Commons CC

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Caught Between Two Allies: The United States and the Japan/South Korea Island Dispute of Takeshima/Dokdo

    Thu., Dec. 13, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    For decades, Japan and South Korea have had a dispute over a small group of islands that are almost midway between the two countries. The Japanese name for the islands is Takeshima while South Korea calls them Dokdo. There are many island disputes in Asia, but this one is unique because it involves two U.S. allies. This seminar will explore the history of U.S. involvement in the dispute and any possible role Washington might be able to play to settle or manage the matter.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Oil and Grand Strategy: Great Britain and Germany, 1918–1941

    Office of Price Administration

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Oil and Grand Strategy: Great Britain and Germany, 1918–1941

    Thu., Dec. 6, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar considers how oil shaped grand strategy in Great Britain and Germany between 1918 and 1941. The history of oil in the twentieth century is a chapter in the story of European decline, for the emergence of oil accelerated the decline of Britain and Germany as great powers capable of independently exerting their economic and military power.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • NORAD NORTHCOM COCOM

    USNORTHCOM Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    U.S. Military Decision-Making and its International Security Structure

    Thu., Nov. 29, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    A keen understanding of the United States' International Security role is often underpinned by a working knowledge of the U.S. warfighting Combatant Command (COCOM) structure, service roles, and responsibilities of key commanders. This seminar is informative in nature and outlines the nation's COCOMs, geographic areas of responsibilities, key unified command plan changes, and stategic/operational planning constructs.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by the Armed Forces Committe's For the Common Defense Seminar Series

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Prospects for Regional Nuclear Cooperation in Southeast Asia

    Mon., Nov. 19, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    As a region that plans to introduce its first nuclear power plants within the decade, Southeast Asia presents its own unique features in fostering regional cooperation in the nuclear field. While the Fukushima Daichii nuclear disaster last year has slowed nuclear plans in the region, a number of Southeast Asian countries continue to look to nuclear energy as part of their energy mix. This seminar examines the benefits and challenges of a nuclear cooperative approach in the context of closer Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) integration and provides recommendations on the way forward.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    War of Words: The Case for Negotiations in Afghanistan

    Thu., Nov. 15, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Despite the U.S. military surge and costly counter-insurgency efforts, the Taliban remain powerful in Afghanistan. With the withdrawal of NATO troops, and diminution of international leverage, there is an urgent need to establish a peace process. Dialogue might not resolve the conflict: there are numerous obstacles and concerns. But given that the Taliban are interested in talks — and that the likely alternative to a settlement is protracted conflict and insurgent gains — it would be a profound mistake not to explore the possibilities for negotiations.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Soviet infantry with bayonets fixed march through Red Square, Moscow, USSR, Dec. 1, 1954.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Conventional Conflict in Nuclear Primacy

    Thu., Nov. 8, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why do states challenge and resist states with vastly superior nuclear arsenals? This seminar argues that these asymmetric nuclear situations create both motives and opportunities for frequent, low-level conflict among interstate rivals. The seminar uses data on nuclear asymmetry and conflict from 1945–2000 as well as an examination of Soviet decision-making during the early Cold War to assess this claim.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Leaving Theory Behind: Why Too Much Hypothesis Testing is Bad for International Relations

    Thu., Nov. 1, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Taubman Building - Allison Dining Room, 5th Floor

    Theory creating and hypothesis testing are both important elements of social science. Unfortunately, in recent years the balance between theory creation/refinement and the testing of empirical hypotheses has shifted sharply toward the latter. This trend is unfortunate, because insufficient attention to theory can lead to misspecified models and overreliance on misleading measures of key concepts. In addition, the poor quality of much of the data in IR makes it less likely that these efforts will produce useful cumulative knowledge.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Migrant Labor, National Security, and Political Mobilization: A Case Study of the United Arab Emirates

    Thu., Oct. 25, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar examines how migrant labor impacts democratization processes in the United Arab Emirates, where non-citizens comprise over 96 percent of the labor force. Unlike previous studies that show how stringent citizenship policies impede the social mobility and political organization of migrant groups, the seminar will explain how migration policies also shape the way citizens mobilize politically.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • In this May 12, 1999, U.S. Navy handout photo, air traffic controllers monitor the radar screens of the Air Operations Center aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier in support of airstrikes against Yugoslavia.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Credibility is Not Enough: The Failure of U.S. Compellent Threats, 1945–2011

    Thu., Oct. 18, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why when the United States issues compellent threats against weak states like Iraq and Serbia do they frequently resist? This seminar demonstrates that U.S. compellent threats fail because they are not costly for the United States, and thus they are not effective signals that the United States is highly motivated to prevail over the targets of its threats.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • This photo provided by Iranian state news agency Fars purports to show an Iranian Sajjil-2 surface-to-surface missile launching from a site in Semnan, Iran, May 20, 2009. The new advanced missile has a range of about 1,200 miles.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Arms Control and Missile Proliferation in the Middle East

    Thu., Oct. 11, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    124 Mount Auburn Street - Suite 100, Room 106

    In 2010, the Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) called for the establishment of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Middle East and for a conference to be attended by all states from the region to be held in 2012 as a first step to facilitate this goal. Past attempts to advance regional arms control failed because negotiators could not overcome the stalemate between Israel and the Arab states, mainly Egypt. This seminar argues that this sorry state of regional arms control can be changed by building on the NPT Review Conference's mandate, covering delivery systems as well. Instead of repeating the mistake of allowing negotiations to be dominated by the old Israeli-Arab juxtaposition, a focus on delivery systems would address the concerns of all parties in the region.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Breakthrough Problems and Military Strategy: How Cumulative Dynamics Affect Strategic Assessment

    Thu., Oct. 4, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine why decision-makers often find it so difficult to evaluate their progress when pursuing strategic breakthroughs—especially in the context of military strategy—and then evaluate U.S. military strategy during the American Indian Wars.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Containing Iran: Why the Taboo Policy of Containment May Be the Right One

    Thu., Sep. 27, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Iran's nuclear program presents the United States with a daunting foreign policy challenge. A number of U.S. policy makers, as well as President Barack Obama, have vocally disavowed a policy of containment to address this challenge. U.S. strategic goals can best be met through patient and forward-looking policymaking. Specifically, the United States can continue to lay the groundwork for an effective containment policy while using targeted sanctions and diplomacy to discourage Iran from weaponization. A successful containment policy will promote long-term positive political change in Iran while avoiding counterproductive provocation.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • This is one of the many evacuee villages built inland back of Singapore, for emergency occupancy by Malays living near the coast. This picture was taken in the summer of 1941.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Truth about Hearts and Minds: Counterinsurgency and Development in the Postwar British Empire

    Thu., May 31, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Thanks to its reputation as the one of the few successful counterinsurgencies of the twentieth century, the Malayan Emergency of the early 1950s has figured prominently in recent histories of military strategy. Yet an equally important context for the winning of "hearts and minds" is the model of rural development which dominated colonial policy at the same time and shared important features with the military campaign: the extensive use of propaganda, the close attention to personal relationships, and the delicate balance between coercion and persuasion. Why did British civilians and soldiers alike find it necessary to consider the thoughts and feelings of colonial subjects? Ultimately, officials embraced a psychological approach because their strategy for the postwar empire—the  diversion of popular aspirations from constitutional reform to economic improvement—required it.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • In this Feb. 11, 2011 file photo, Egyptians celebrate the news of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak, who handed control of the country to the military, at night in Tahrir Square in downtown Cairo, Egypt.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Did Democracy Promotion Cause the Arab Spring?

    Mon., May 21, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Malkin Penthouse, 4th Floor

    THIS EVENT IS POSTPONED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

    The emerging dominant narrative of the Arab Spring, even as its direction continues to unfold in different ways, is one in which popular protest is driven by citizens who can no longer tolerate political and economic stagnation, the absence of basic religious and political freedoms, and top-down corruption within their national institutions. This seminar will explore the basis for an alternative explanation. Has the Arab Spring instead been facilitated and perhaps even hastened by democracy promotion over the past two decades?

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • A veiled Iranian woman walks past a revolutionary mural including images commemorating the 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War in Tehran, Iran, July 1, 2004.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Revolution and War in Iran: The Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Representations of the Iran-Iraq War

    Thu., May 17, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The Iran-Iraq War began eighteen months after the establishment of Iran's Islamic Republic and lasted for what now amounts to one quarter of its existence. The war has had a profound impact on all aspects of life in Iran. Non-Iranian studies of the conflict, however, have failed to appreciate the war's significance, in part because scholars have neglected Persian-language sources on the conflict.  Some of the most notable Iranian sources are those produced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. This seminar will use those sources to examine how the Revolutionary Guards have represented the history of the war and their roles in the conflict.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • People visit the site of explosion in the Pakistani tribal area of Khyber near Peshawar, Pakistan, Jan 10, 2012. A bomb targeting a militia opposed to the Pakistani Taliban exploded in a market close to the Afghan border, killing many people.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Spread of Violent Civil Conflict: Rare, State-Driven, and Preventable

    Thu., May 10, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Since the end of World War II, many U.S. military interventions in developing world civil conflicts have been motivated, in part, by a fear that if a given conflict is not stopped early, it may spread across borders later and destabilize an entire region. In this seminar, the speaker will explore the true frequency with which violent civil conflicts spread across borders and discuss why conflicts spread in some cases but not others.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Cyber Disorders: Rivalry and Conflict in a Global Information Age

    Thu., May 3, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The risks posed by the proliferation of cyber weapons are gaining wide recognition among security planners. Yet the general reaction of scholars of international relations has been to neglect the cyber peril owing to its technical novelties and intricacies. This attitude amounts to either or both of two claims: the problem is not of sufficient scale to warrant close inspection, or it is not comprehensible to a non-technical observer. This seminar will challenge both assertions.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Next Special Operations' Mobility Aircraft: Need vs. Fiscal Constraint

    Thu., Apr. 26, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The proliferation of threat systems and Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies make performing special operations forces' (SOF) air mobility missions increasingly complicated and limit the capability to defeat air defenses and penetrate into denied airspace. Combined with an aging inventory, ill-suited to evading these threats, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) and the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) must look to technology to defeat the more modern threat systems and anti-access strategies. The best answer to penetrate future, denied regions is in stealth or low observable (LO) technology.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Feb. 2, 2012: An Iranian vendor sells pistachios in Tehran's old main bazaar. Under sanctions, most imported goods' prices have doubled since last year, and Iranian money has plunged in value against foreign currencies.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Sanctions on Iran: Can They Work?

    Thu., Apr. 19, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The ever increasing scope of sanctions on Iran is based on the assumption that "pressure" can result in a resolution to the nuclear crisis. There are, however, many types of sanction and each can act in different ways. This presentation will use a framework to set success criteria and evaluate whether sanctions can work.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Seminar - Open to the Public

    Bankers, Bureaucrats, and the Bond Market: A Financial History of the Russian Revolution, 1900–1917

    Thu., Apr. 12, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will examine the links between international financial markets and the Russian Revolution and show how the revolutions of 1905 and 1917 can in fact be understood to be at root the story of two crises of Russian finance. In doing so, the seminar will also explore the interactions of private financiers and the state and the relationship between private capital flows and national security.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • May 27, 2011: IAEA fact-finding team members visit the emergency diesel generator at Reactor Unit 6 at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant in Okuma, Japan. The generator was the only one to survive the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

    AP Photo/IAEA

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The IAEA and Fukushima: Best Laid Plans, Reality Checks, and Doing It Better Next Time

    Thu., Mar. 29, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Professor Findlay will analyze the response of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to the March 2011 nuclear reactor disaster at Fukushima, Japan. He will compare the expectations that the Agency, its member states, and other nuclear stakeholders had of the IAEA's role in such a situation with the harsh reality. Drawing on these insights, he will suggest possibilities for strengthening the Agency's capacities for handling the next Fukushima.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Ultra-Orthodox Jews peer at Israeli Antiquities Authority employees working at the walkway to the Al Aqsa Mosque compound in east Jerusalem's Old City, Feb. 12, 2007. Jerusalem's Jewish mayor has ordered a review of construction work near the holy site.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    In Search of Lost Time: Can Temporality Provide Insight into the Conflict in the Middle East?

    Thu., Mar. 22, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The renewed interest in temporality in the social sciences opens new avenues for framing and analyzing important questions in international relations. In his seminar, Dr. Ehud Eiran will explore the possible contribution of temporal ideas in understanding the Arab-Israeli and Iranian-Israeli conflicts.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • French UN peacekeepers listen to a street vendor as he displays a UNIFIL T-shirt near the French troops' base in the southern village of Borj Qalaway, Lebanon, Sep. 21, 2006.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Fighting and Helping? Domestic Politics and NGO-Military Relationships in Complex Humanitarian Emergencies

    Thu., Mar. 15, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    During complex humanitarian emergencies—crises with total or considerable breakdown of authority resulting from internal or external conflict that lead to a significant international response—the relations between humanitarian nongovernmental organizations (NGO)s and military organizations vary widely, ranging from hostility to cooperation. In some cases, NGOs and military organizations define forms of coordination to avoid duplication—they cooperate and even launch projects together. In others, however, they refuse to cooperate and even engage in vigorous and public mutual recrimination. Why? This seminar will explore empirically the challenges of these disputed boundaries and the ways in which humanitarian NGOs and military organizations face them in their areas of operation during the course of their missions.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • In this May 3, 2010 file photo, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks at a conference to review the workings of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) at United Nations Headquarters.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Institutional Change and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime

    Thu., Mar. 8, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    What explains the strength and durability of the regime centered on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? Is the security institution equipped to handle existing challenges and emerging threats in the nuclear arena? Policymakers and scholars alike have provided varying assessments of its prospects for the future. This work in progress posits that the regime's capacity for responsiveness and adaptability will ultimately dictate whether the NPT continues to be relevant, or whether it becomes a paper tiger.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Herman Nackaerts, Deputy Director General and Head of the Department of Safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency is interviewed as he arrives after his flight from Iran at Vienna's Schwechat airport, Austria,  Feb. 1, 2012.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Controlling the 'Absolute Weapon': Delegation, Legitimacy, and Authority at the IAEA

    Thu., Mar. 1, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar will argue that the persistent demand for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) services has resulted in a routinization of international delegation of autonomy and capacity to the IAEA, transforming it from super-power pawn to a multinational forum and now into an agency of global governance—an international nuclear authority.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Hezbollah leader sheik Hassan Nasrallah, right, speaks with Syrian President Bashar Asad, left, upon their arrival for a dinner, in Damascus, Syria, Feb. 25, 2010.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Balancing for Power: Syrian State Power and the Dilemma of Armed Group Allies

    Thu., Feb. 23, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    How do states align with external armed groups? Is such a policy the strategy of the weak? Paradoxically, is the rise in armed group power due to the decline of the state power of its regional sponsors? By drawing primarily from a case study of Syria, this lecture will seek to answer the more general question of state-armed group alliances in international relations theory and practice.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • Brazil's Foreign Minister, Antonio Patriota (R), attends the 41st Ordinary Meeting of Council of Mercosur in Asuncion, Paraguay, on June 28, 2011.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Pan-American: The United States, Argentina, and Rival Visions of American Union

    Thu., Feb. 16, 2012 | 12:15pm - 1:45pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Why does no Pan-American Union akin to the European Union exist? Such American integration has been discussed even longer than European integration. What are the defining moments in the history of intra-American integration? Using the Pan-American Conference of 1890 as a starting point, this seminar seeks to uncover the economic and diplomatic battle between the United States and Argentina throughout the 20th century. Between the United States' Monroe Doctrine and Argentina's "special relationship" with the British Empire, these two poles of America represent very different visions of continental integration.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • The Soviet flag flies over the Kremlin at Red Square in Moscow, Russia, Dec. 21, 1991. The flag was replaced by the Russian flag on Jan. 1, 1992. The signing of the commonwealth of former republics agreement in Alma Alta brought an end to the USSR.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Life on the Downward Slope: Assessing the Consequences of Great Power Decline

    Thu., Feb. 9, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    Will rising states such as China and India seek to rollback U.S. power and influence as the United States faces a period of relative decline? Or, are there policies the United States can adopt today to limit the possibility that rising states will try to exploit U.S. weaknesses in the future? Many U.S. policymakers seem to believe that the United States can discourage rising states from exploiting U.S. weaknesses as the distribution of power shifts in their favor by embedding them in international institutions and promoting their gradual democratization. Drawing on an in-depth examination of U.S. policy towards the Soviet Union over the course of 1988 to 1991, this project challenges the conventional wisdom. Far from institutional embeddedness or one's domestic makeup, it is declining state's strategic value to other states in the international system that determines the behavior of rising states towards a declining great power.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

  • An Aug. 14, 2011, satellite image shows a facility in Al-Hasakah, Syria. IAEA investigators have asked Syria about this complex, in the image’s lower center, because they believe it closely matches uranium enrichment plant plans sold by A.Q. Khan.

    AP Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    Navigating the Nuclear Marketplace: How States Select Acquisition Strategies

    Thu., Feb. 2, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    This seminar examines how domestic nuclear markets shape how states seek to acquire nuclear weapons. While scholars have studied the demand and supply drivers of nuclear proliferation extensively, little is known about how these two factors influence the behavior of states pursuing nuclear weapons. Understanding how states come to pursue different nuclear acquisition strategies can shed light on several important issues.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.

    Co-sponsored by Project on Managing the Atom

  • Kabul, Afghanistan, March 2006

    Aisha Ahmad Photo

    Seminar - Open to the Public

    The Mosque and the Market: An Economic Explanation of Political Islam in Somalia

    Thu., Jan. 26, 2012 | 12:15pm - 2:00pm

    Littauer Building - Belfer Center Library, Room 369

    The international community has spent billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives in efforts to rebuild failed states. However, international initiatives to reconstruct state institutions from the top-down have largely failed to produce de facto statehood on the ground. In contrast, in these same cases, certain Islamic movements have demonstrated a remarkable state-building capacity, particularly the ability to centralize political power. What makes Islamic groups better state-makers than internationally sponsored state-building projects? Using original field research and survey data from war-torn Somalia, this seminar demonstrates exactly why and how the local business community in Mogadishu worked with the Islamic Courts Union movement from 2004–2006 to produce an unprecedented degree of political change.

    Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.