Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world
Most wars are short and not particularly violent; a few last for years at great cost. What separates the passing conflicts from the devastating ones?
Most wars are short and not particularly violent; a few last for years at great cost. What separates the passing conflicts from the devastating ones? The speaker argues, and finds, that commitment problems associated with shifts in relative capabilities impede settlement and thus lead to bad wars. In a few conflicts, such as the Paraguayan War of the nineteenth century or World War II, these material commitment problems are further supplemented by psychological dynamics that convince leaders of rising powers that their opponent is governed by a fundamentally untrustworthy leader: it is this inference that leads to demands for unconditional surrender, and hence to the very worst wars.
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