Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world
Why do states collapse and how do they collapse?
This paper is the result of a research project designed to address two questions: why do states collapse and how do they collapse? The research develops a concise set of four core causes based on an in-depth case analysis of Somalia, Lebanon, and the former Yugoslavia. It then tackles the processes of state collapse and state building. There is no one-size-fits-all process of failure or recovery; instead, different pathways exist. QCA analysis show that some variables carry more weight than others at specific moments in the process. Breaking down the process may strenghten current early warning frameworks which adequately predict state weakness, but fail to foresee when weak states will collapse. Two variables (the mobilization of advanced groups and an inconsistent international environment) appear to be crucial to forecast state collapse and to build strong states. There is an urgent need to integrate them into mainstream analysis.
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