Harvard–Belfer on Syria

"The frightening rise and expansion of the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), which has now triggered yet another round of American-led foreign military attacks in the Levant, continues to confound many in the region and around the world. Many ask: Where did these killers come from and where do they aim to go? These issues will be clarified in the months and perhaps years ahead, but one aspect of ISIS should be crystal clear to anyone who has made even a cursory review of Islamist movements in the Middle East in the past two generations."

An audio recording from Rola el-Husseini, Research Associate Professor at the Middle East and Middle Eastern American Center, the Graduate Center, City University of New York and author of Pax Syriana: Elite Politics in Postwar Lebanon.

On October 20, 2014 at MEI, Dr. el-Husseini spoke on her research in Lebanon and Syria and those countries' tangled shared political history in a talk titled after her 2012 book, "Pax Syriana: Elite Politics in Postwar Lebanon." After presenting this material, Dr. el-Husseini delved into current events and her research on Lebanese social and political life amidst the upheaval of the Syrian Civil War and the rise of ISIS.

"Analysts in the United States this week are debating the precise meaning of the statements Wednesday by John Allen, the ex-Marine general who now coordinates the U.S.-led coalition’s response to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). He said that the United States is not coordinating with the Free Syrian Army, and instead plans to develop from scratch new local ground units in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS on two fronts."

"Instead of pouring good money (and possibly U.S. lives) down that particular rat hole, I'd like to see the people who are most directly affected start fighting this one for themselves. Unless the Turks, Jordanians, Kurds, and other Iraqis are willing to get their acts together to contain these vicious extremists, even a protracted and costly U.S. effort will amount to little."

Politico Magazine, in an article titled “Is America's Military Too Small for Obama's New War on Terror?” asked a dozen top military thinkers whether the United States needs a new defense budget to fight Obama’s new war on terror? And if so, what should that new budget look like—where should the Pentagon cut, and where should it add?

Graham Allison responded to Politico in commentary titled "The Case for a War Tax."

"Absent effective political institutions, efforts to move from authoritarian to more participatory forms of government tend to provoke bitter quarrels between previously advantaged groups and those who have been excluded from wealth or power. In a world where most states are in fact multiethnic or multinational, democratization was bound to provoke greater internal conflicts, at least in the short term."

"I think the United States does not have the stomach for getting into another ground war in the region....I do think that air strikes alone are not going to do it. The boots that will be necessary on the ground will have to come mostly from other parties, not from the United States. Turkey is a good candidate. They've got a long border with what's happening and it would be nice to see some of the Arab countries putting some boots of theirs on the ground."

"While a threat to U.S. interests, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) presents us with a unique opportunity to 'reset' the Middle East equation—to actively transform regional relations, to abate the cold war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and to forge a new working relationship with Iran," writes Payam Mohseni. "As the United States moves to escalate its war against ISIS and forge a coalition against the terrorist group, it is important that Iran be included in the process. After all, U.S. and Iranian interests have increasingly converged in the Middle East with the emergence of a common enemy, and no power in the region is better suited to taking on ISIS than Iran and its affiliated Shi’a militias in Iraq."

One of the most significant common factors that has exploded throughout the Arab World in recent years has been the birth and spread of non-state actors — organizations, parties, militias — that have assumed the role of traditional governments in many countries. These non-state actors do not follow a single pattern of behavior, but they do highlight a common trend across much of the Arab World — the continuing fragmentation of once whole states into a patchwork of armed groups that operate within the borders of once sovereign countries.

ISTANBUL

The squabbling factions that make up the Syrian “moderate opposition” should get their act together. But so should the foreign nations — such as the United States, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan — that have been funding the chaotic melange of fighters inside Syria. These foreign machinations helped open the door for the terrorist Islamic State group to threaten the region.