Harvard–Belfer on Syria

"Never in my adult life have I ever experienced in the Middle East and the Western world anything like the prevailing disjunction today between the “Islamic State” (ISIS) threat that preoccupies all publics and governments, and the apparent inability of political systems to deal with it coherently. This is a problem everywhere, and I mean literally everywhere, in the world, making Arabs, Americans Europeans, Israelis, Russians, Iranians and all other concerned people equal partners in this astounding example of collective political and strategic transcontinental incompetence."

Diplomatic negotiations on Syria got lost in the aftermath of the Paris attacks a week ago. But the talks have made surprising progress — and they may prove a crucial part of any successful strategy for combating terrorists from the Islamic State.

They say we are at war.

What does war look like?

Our enemy is violent Islamic extremism. He is Daesh. He is al-Qaeda. The enemy consists of all groups and adherents of violent Islamic extremism. Our enemy is the “global jihad” movement inspired by the 9/11 attack. They seek to impose an aberrant ideology on the world. For Daesh and their allies, coexistence with their enemies is unimaginable. Compromise is impossible. Daesh has adopted the mindset of an apocalyptic cult group.

French President François Hollande has announced that his country is at war with the Islamic State, and the United States is surely part of that conflict, too. What the fighters need urgently is a road map for the future, after the terrorist group is defeated.

"While the world has been preoccupied with the “Islamic State” (ISIS) and its global terrorism threat that emanated from the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, 17 countries that met in Vienna last weekend agreed on a stunningly ambitious and impressive timetable to wind down the conflict and move Syria towards a political transition within the coming 18 months. The plan was agreed by all the critical external players, notably the United States, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, all of whom now spend more time funding and fanning the wars within Syria than they do resolving it. I hope dearly that this plan is actually implemented. The odds for that occurring are not high, but neither are they zero."

News that one of the 11/13 Paris attackers carried a fake Syrian passport has raised fears about resettlement of Syrian refugees here in the United States. Some politicians and governors have called for the United States to stop resettling Syrian refugees altogether. Here are some facts to guide the debate.

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates -- Do Western nations think that Muslim lives matter less? Most of us would resist any such characterization of callousness. But Western outrage about the carnage in Paris, coupled with near-indifference to similar killings in the Arab world, suggests to many Muslims that a double standard exists -- and they find it deeply upsetting.

The nature and significance of the threat flows from the fact that ISIS is—all at the same time—a terrorist group, a state, and a revolutionary political movement. We have not faced an adversary like it before.

I was an intelligence officer for 33 years. When intelligence officers write or brief, they start with the bottom line. Here it is: ISIS poses a major threat to the US and to US interests abroad and that threat is growing every day.

"...[S]tep one is not to fall into the obvious trap the Islamic State has set. If we buy into its vision of relentless cultural, religious, and civilizational conflict, we could easily act in ways that make its vision a reality. Given how weak the Islamic State is today, the last thing we should do is encourage anyone to see it as heroic or farsighted."

Former UK Ambassador to Lebanon, Tom Fletcher, and BBC war correspondent, Paul Wood, participated in a conversation on Syria moderated by Future of Diplomacy Project Executive Director, Cathryn Clüver, titled “Tolerating the Intolerable: Syria Four Years On” on September 30. Both speakers gave a highly variegated and in-depth response of the major and corollary issues at play in the Syrian conflict and beyond, including the difficulty of finding moderate forces on the ground, the dangers of warzone journalism, the migrant crisis, and Russia's strategic interests.