Harvard–Belfer on Syria

Various narratives explaining Russia’s recent decision haveemerged which portray Russia alternatively as attempting tore-establish its role as a world empire or as a power-balancerprotecting its interests in the Middle East. This publicationaims to present different scholarly perspectives and viewpointson Russian objectives in Syria and the implications it holds forworld politics. It does so by gathering the opinions of severalexperts with different backgrounds and analytic viewpointsfrom across the world.

When trying to underscore the difficulty of predicting the Kremlin’s next steps, many Westerners like to cite Winston Churchill’s famous reference to Russia as “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Few however, recall the remainder of that 1939 adage: “But perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest.”

"I am astounded by how many people in the United States and abroad look at Russia’s direct military involvement in Syria and mainly reflect on the erratic and wavering U.S. policy in the region. I do not see how the United States should be singled out for a largely failed policy that has caused so much death and destruction in Syria, when many others in the Mideast and abroad were much more directly responsible for the torment of Syria. This is certainly an important moment, but what it portends will only become clearer months down the road. For now, we can really only make a few observations and ask some questions about Russian militarism in Syria."

"The United States should have two goals in Syria. First, bring order to those parts of the country that the Islamic State does not control. Second, strive to build a coalition of forces that can contain the Islamic State and eventually replace it. Russia's 'intrusion' could offer a chance to achieve both. This means setting aside American prejudices and heated political rhetoric. Russia isn't an intruder in Syria; it has been involved there for decades, just as America has been involved throughout the Middle East for more than 60 years. Mr. Assad is Russia's protégé, and Syria is an operations base for the Russian military."

"Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, made clear during the U.N. General Assembly meeting this week that they will not cooperate with an emerging Russian military alliance geared toward defeating ISIS (which calls itself the Islamic State) and bolstering the Assad regime in Syria.

The recent Russian military moves -- far from leading to the defeat of the militant group -- have increased the risk that the Syrian conflict and the fight against ISIS will escalate into a full-blown proxy war."

"..[T]he orchestrated U.S. government announcements about the documents, computers and other financial materials that were captured in the raid have got to make a lot of ISIS leaders very nervous. And it is likely to make members of ISIS who have avoided the violence of the battlefield — men like Sayyaf — believe that not even an office job is safe."

"A frightening combination of elements shapes official and public perceptions of ISIS. This includes obvious gaps in knowledge about some aspects of ISIS and its operations; some frenzy about not being able to track or counter the multiple means of recruiting ISIS adherents via social media; and exaggerated fears that hundreds of ISIS members or supporters with foreign passports may be lurking in backyards, mosques or local grocery stores across American towns and cities."

In the past month Saudi Arabia has put together a coalition of 12 countries and launched a massive military campaign, dubbed Decisive Storm, to counter the advances of the Houthi rebels in Yemen and roll back their attempted takeover of the country.

In a public address hosted by the Future of Diplomacy Project, UN Special Envoy to Syria, Ambassador Staffan de Mistura, spoke to a full audience of Harvard Kennedy School students, faculty, and experts on the use of creativity and innovation in crisis response. The event, which took place on April 29, was moderated by the program's Faculty Director, R. Nicholas Burns.

An audio recording from Stephen M. Walt, Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.

On April 29, 2015 at MEI, Prof. Stephen Walt assessed U.S. policy and interests in the Middle East, arguing that scaled back involvement might yield better results for the U.S. and the region.