Russia Already Gave Up on ‘Normal Relations’ with the U.S.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin approved what U.S. authorities say was a GRU operation to meddle in the 2016 election, he undoubtedly expected it to deal a death blow to U.S.-Russian relations. U.S. intelligence would become aware of it at some point; that’s the risk of conducting an intelligence operation on this scale. The American people would surely be outraged. As in the past, both parties would unite to confront Russia. The questions that must have run through his mind: What do I have to lose? Are Russian interests fulfilled by attempting to reset this broken relationship with the Americans, or is our cause advanced by going on the offensive? For the weaker party — a country facing encroachment by NATO — isn’t offense the best defense?

In the risk-vs.-gain calculation intelligence officers use, the veteran KGB officer would probably have decided that the opportunity to influence the election was too good to pass up. The question of whether his preferred candidate, Donald Trump, would win was moot. At best, Trump would prevail, but there would be an outcry about Russia siding with him; at worst, Hillary Clinton’s administration, which would likely take an even harder line toward Moscow than Barack Obama’s did, would be weakened by domestic politics. Either way, Putin was burning his bridges on any chance to restore good relations with the United States.

The first accusations by the Obama administration in fall 2016 that Russia was attempting to interfere in the election did not deter Putin. Even with Trump in the White House, Russia does not appear to have ceased its attempts to penetrate the U.S. political and national security establishment, based on public warnings and statements by the director of national intelligence, FBI directorand deputy attorney general over the past few days. There remain questions about the extent to which the Russians meddled in the British referendum to exit the European Union, or elections in France and Germany. Compromise and exposure of espionage activity has clearly failed to halt aggressive Russian operations.