Impeachment and U.S. Foreign Policy

Europeans on the whole greeted the opening of impeachment procedures against President Trump with a mixture of relief, approval, and hope. Their relief stems from the disappointments about the Trump Administration, beginning with the 2016 election of a populist isolationist whom most of them regarded as unprepared, if not unfit for the office as leader of the West. The ensuing three years deepened their disappointments.

Most important was Trump’s foreign policy of “America First” that rejected the multilateralism and cooperative philosophy, which had not only formed the basis of Europe’s relations with the US but of the post-war order established under American leadership. Unilateral imposition of tariffs on allies, protectionism, questioning of NATO’s assistance commitment, opposition to the European Union, withdrawal from the six power Iran deal on nuclear proliferation and from the worldwide Paris Accord on climate policy are some examples of the Trump policies which shocked the Europeans.

Their second level of disappointment was the Republicans’ failure to effectively oppose this policy pulling down the very liberal order and relationship with Europe which they had helped to create. And, finally, Europeans were deeply troubled by the disparity between the model of American democracy in the name of which Europe had been liberated and rebuilt and the reality of an autocratic and openly racist President who prefers dictatorial leaders to allies. For these reasons many Europeans are relieved by the impeachment, which they consider  an overdue cleansing effort to restore democratic values, to check a president who has violated America’s and the West’s foreign policy consensus and thereby  to restore America’s credibility as a leader of the democratic West.

Europeans applaud the opening of the impeachment because it deals with an issue of central importance to Europe and all democracies: outside interference in democratic elections. It is well known and confirmed by the US intelligence agencies and a US Senate report that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections to help Trump, invited and assisted by Trump and his campaign. Had the Congress - in this case the Democratic majority of the House – remained impassive in the face of the overwhelming evidence of a President once again seeking outside interference in an election,  this would have become an accepted new normal in a country still considered to be the leader of the democratic world.

The examination and condemnation of outside interference by the US Congress is therefore also in the profound interest of Europe and all democracies since they all face a growing danger of outside interference in elections, Russia’s being the most effective so far.

Observing the impeachment proceedings many Europeans have some hope with regard to its outcome though it is modest. A removal of President Trump from office would open the way to restoring a cooperative atmosphere in US-European relations and a return to liberal trade policies.

However, given the frozen partisanship in the Senate it is quite possible, if not likely that the Republican majority will reject an impeachment of the President. After all, despite the evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 election it has blocked effective legislation to counteract a repetition in 2020. The impact on US foreign policy of a Senate refusal to impeach is hard to predict. Apart from further undermining the standing and credibility of America’s democracy in the world Trump’s staying in office is likely to worsen the precarious state of relations with the allies and increase American unilateralism. It will be up to the American voter in 2020 whether American democracy and the West in their established forms will survive.