Trump is Missing the Big Picture On the Economy

As an economist, I am normally enthusiastic when presidents or other political leaders emphasize the economic aspect of public policy issues. I am all for economic growth, cost benefit analyses, trade agreements, more flexible markets and prudent deregulation. Yet I am appalled by President Trump’s invocation of economic arguments as a basis for overriding the judgments of public health experts about battling the coronavirus pandemic.

In fact, as a matter of pure economics — even leaving aside moral considerations that should be taken into account — the president’s arguments are flatly wrong. When Trump tweets and says things like “we cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself” or “you can destroy a country by closing it down” and raises the prospect of reversing measures taken to promote social distancing, he misunderstands the fundamental economic problem posed by the pandemic, as well as the most rational, economically sensible way to address it. In the end, economic growth and well-being would be harmed, not helped, by the course he is advocating.

It is an elementary confusion to believe that lost growth and lost jobs are primarily a consequence of social-distancing measures rather than the pandemic itself. There are currently more than 50,000 diagnosed cases in the United States; the number is doubling every few days. Perhaps some people would be traveling, shopping and eating out as usual if there were no prohibitions. But does anyone believe that ordinary life will continue if millions of Americans have the virus and our hospitals are overflowing? This is where we surely will be in a few weeks if we abandon social distancing.

I recovered over the past year from ruptured quadriceps tendon. At a certain point, sick of the braces that kept my knees rigid, I pressed my physicians to take them off. They responded by pointing out that taking them off prematurely would put at risk all the progress I had made. If I ruptured the tendons again, they said, I would have to start the whole process over — and from a worse starting point. Fortunately, I saw their point, managed my impatience and am doing well today.