We Can Protect the Most Vulnerable and Reopen the Economy

The struggle between President Trump’s drive to reopen the American economy as quickly as possible, and the insistence by his public health team and many others that this has to be delayed until further hurdles are overcome, is largely a false dilemma. We can simultaneously increase protection for those who are most vulnerable to coronavirus and, with appropriate precautions, reopen most of our economy and society. 

The key to unlocking this false dilemma is a clear understanding of who, in fact, is most vulnerable to death from this novel killer — and who is not. As data from the deaths of the more than 58,000 of our fellow citizens to date show, the answer is clear. 

Those at greatest risk of death from coronavirus are a subset of the 15 percent of Americans older than 65. More than 80 percent of all the deaths in America from coronavirus have come from this group. Moreover, the data show that vulnerability increases with age beyond 65, especially among individuals with one or more specific preexisting conditions. And among those who have died, three of every five have been males. In the death toll to date, how many were individuals under 25? Of the 200 million Americans under 45, how many have died from this novel virus? The answers are: fewer than 100 among under 25s and fewer than 1,000 under 45s. 

Thus, in contrast to the specter of a nation at risk, when properly understood, coronavirus should be seen as a big threat to a small percentage of our population and a small threat to the overwhelming majority. To clarify this increased danger, it is instructive to distinguish between BC (before coronavirus appeared) and AC (after coronavirus). The fraction of Americans who today face a significantly greater risk of death than they did BC is likely to be roughly 10 percent. 

Moreover, as we are debating choices about next steps up the staircase to reopening the economy, we should recognize that most of those individuals already had retired from the workforce before 2020 began. At the other end of the spectrum, risks of death from coronavirus among those under 65 essentially fall with age, risks for those in the earlier decades of life being substantially lower than many other threats they were living with BC.