Current State of Global Sanctions Against Iran

"The legitimacy and stability of the global sanctions framework against Iran largely rests in the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency for international trade. Although the U.S. dollar will likely continue to stay strong in the foreseeable future, other trends may signal growing weaknesses within the sanctions regime.

If negotiations fail to produce an agreement by the end of March, the U.S. will likely tighten sanctions against Iran’s energy, automotive, construction, and mining sectors, while increasing pressure on countries to reduce oil exports to “de minimis” levels, which the U.S. has been quiet successful in accomplishing thus far. China, Japan, South Korea, and India—Iran’s top oil importers— are all global leaders in petroleum consumption, and although these countries receive sanctions waivers in exchange for reducing Iranian oil imports, it will be increasingly difficult to make any further reductions given growing energy demands. This could present an upper bound in terms of maximizing impact from reducing global Iranian oil imports..."