South Asia, A New Center of Democracy?

Thus far this year we’ve seen elections in Pakistan (Feb. 18), Bhutan (March 24) and Nepal (April 10). Elections have been promised in Bangladesh and the Maldives later this year, and scheduled in India and Afghanistan for next year. Yet, barring India, we rarely think of these nations as democracies. Could this then be the next wave?

Probably the most watched of these elections was Pakistan’s. The run-up was far from legitimate: President Pervez Musharraf imposed a state of emergency, neither the Election Commission nor the interim government was unbiased, and one of the leading contenders for prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated seven weeks before the polling.

However, while the prelude was messy, the day itself was largely free and fair, and a secular coalition government has now been formed. For all intents and purposes, this should be a success.

Unfortunately, the two main parties in the coalition both ruled independently in the 1990s, producing corrupt and ineffective governments. They are historical antagonists, making it very unlikely that the government will last more than two years, and if they prove truly incompetent, the military will most likely return to restore stability. This is a democracy in name only.

More positive is the situation in Nepal. Three years ago the king, Gyanendra, deposed the parliament, removing any semblance of a democracy. Just over a year later an eight-party coalition, including the Maoists, retook power, and, with fits and starts, produced elections on April 10.

However, the new government, led most likely by the Maoists who won twice as many votes as any other party, has some serious challenges ahead. It will have to find ways not just to integrate the Maoists with their nemesis, the military, but also of to meet the demands of new groups from the southern Terai region who, feeling disempowered, have been making their presence felt through violence. So, while few, myself included, imagined we would get this far, we have only reached “the end of the beginning,” and the road is long and rocky.

Bangladesh also holds out some hope. As in the case of Nepal, we do not today have a democratically elected government. However, the administration, put in place following a coup in January 2007, has worked hard to build accurate voter lists and to crack down on corruption.

But, as in Thailand, every effort by the coup-leaders to break down the biggest parties and remove their offending political heads, has been stymied. And so, with elections promised by the end of the year, we are likely to see the return of one of the two leaders of the two principal parties.

Consequently, we should anticipate more of the same; a democracy, but one that functions despite, not because of, the government.

Who is left? Maldives, a country run by the same president for almost 30 years, who has promised multiparty elections but not yet produced them. Or Bhutan, a monarchy until March when it held its first elections — elections in which one party won 45 out of 47 parliamentary seats.

If democracy is judged by elections, South Asia already represents a growing success. But this is premature. If one looks beyond this to good governance, including stability and services, then arguably the only positive story in the region is India, a messy democracy, but a stable one.

Despite the bleak outlook, we must not dismiss the others. If these new democracies do not hold, then in many cases the consequences could be devastating, returning their citizens to the longstanding conflicts from which they have only recently emerged. Instead, the West should take hope that in Pakistan, over 40 percent of the population came out to vote. And, in Nepal, 60 percent. And this, despite the insecurity and/or illegitimacy of the elections. It is this section of the population — those interested in building democracy — the West should engage.

Hard as it may be, if we want to take advantage of this election period to stabilize these prospective democracies, we must refocus our energies towards the general public in these nations, rather than just the elites.

Until the United States and other Western nations help these groups get the support, training and institutions they require, these spurts of democracy will be short-lived. With that in mind, let us grasp this incredible South Asian opportunity now.