Avoiding a COP-out: Moving Towards Systematic Decision-Making Under the Climate Convention

The third meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP-3) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in December 1997 with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC, 1997). After much deliberation and negotiation, the Parties agreed to the establishment of a set of binding emission targets for developed countries and economies in transition (Annex-I countries). This was an important step forward in the path towards a global climate regime.

While the discussions surrounding the Protocol have focused almost exclusively on the adequacy and the economic implications of the specific targets that emerged from Kyoto, as well as the perceived need to involve developing countries in the commitment regime (e.g., Nature, 1997; Malakoff, 1997; The Economist, 1997; Cooper, 1998), there has been no debate on the rationale (or rather, the lack thereof) underlying the numerical targets that were agreed upon. Given that the commitments will evolve in future negotiations, as will the group of countries involved, this lack of discernible criteria for arriving at emission targets should be a source of serious concern. Not only does the Kyoto Protocol not provide a roadmap for the future, its legacy of ad hocism may be counter-productive to future deliberations.

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