With significant territorial holdings in Syria and Iraq, ISIS’ military campaigns have posed unique challenges to key actors in the Middle East. In Iraq, the group has prompted what many believe is tacit military coordination if not cooperation between the United States and Iran, as both nations work to contain ISIS. However, the question remains whether the strategic visions of Iran and the United States are at ideological odds with one another or if there is space for deeper future partnership. This luncheon will discuss US and Iranian strategic policies in the region and how conflict and cooperation between the two countries over ISIS may alter bilateral and regional politics in the future.

As nuclear negotiations with Iran go into their second year, and the US congress considers a new sanctions bill, the chances of reaching a comprehensive settlement are highly uncertain. The number of regional and global actors with stakes in Iran’s nuclear trajectory means that a failure of negotiations would have far-reaching consequences. Different scenarios leading to the breakdown of talks could produce distinct pathways for the aftermath of diplomatic failure. In particular, whether or not negotiations end with the P5+1 united or divided will affect the prospects of further multilateral sanctions, as well as the behavior of Iran and its regional rivals.  The panel will examine these scenarios, and consider the consequences of a collapse of the negotiations for Iran’s nuclear policy, for regional politics and security, and for relations among the P5+1.

Iran Project Director’s Seminar with Ebrahim Mohseni, Center for International and Security Studies at U. of Maryland (CISSM)

How effective have sanctions been in impacting Iranian exports? This presentation argues that exports sanctions may be less effective in a globalized world as exporters can deflect their exports from one export destination to another. Using highly dis-aggregated data about Iranian non-oil exports, it uncovers the existence, extent, and mechanism of Iranian exports deflection following the imposition of exports sanctions. It shows how exporter size, past export status, and pricing strategy matter in the process of exports deflection.

Please join us for the inaugural Open House of the new Iran Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and learn about our events and programs for the coming year.

A panel discussion with:

Sir Michael Leigh, Senior Advisor, German Marshall Fund

Dr. Marina Ottaway, Senior Scholar, Woodrow Wilson International Center, Middle East Program

Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Visiting Researcher, Georgetown University, Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies (CERES)

How does strategic decision-making occur in Iran? And how does this translate into the domestic policymaking process of the state? This seminar will shed light on the opaque institutional architecture of the Islamic Republic and its impact on strategic governance. It will also examine the broader factional and ideological dynamics at play within the ruling elite in forging state policy.

Please join us! Coffee and tea provided. Everyone is welcome, but admittance will be on a first come–first served basis.