31 Items

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- US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

The U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism Newsletter: November 2018 - November 2019

| Dec. 15, 2019
  • Russians View Terrorists as Third Most Probable Source of Nuclear Attack
  • U.S. Adopts New Strategy for Countering of WMD Terrorism
  • Elbe Group Calls for U.S.-Russian Cooperation against Terrorism
  • Belfer Center Experts on Combatting Complacency about Nuclear Terrorism
  • Can Threat Emanating from Jihadists of Central Asia Have a WMD Dimension?
  • NTI and CENESS on Radiological Risks in Central Asia
  • Hecker Assesses Probability of Radiological and Nuclear Terrorism
  • Luxembourg Forum: It’s Vital for US and Russia to Intensify Cooperation to Combat Nuclear Terrorism

A Tajik conscript looks out over remote stretches of northern Afghanistan from a border outpost near Khorog, Tajikistan.

Photo by David Trilling (c)

Report - Russia Matters

Jihadists from Ex-Soviet Central Asia: Where Are They? Why Did They Radicalize? What Next?

| Fall 2018

Thousands of radicals from formerly Soviet Central Asia have traveled to fight alongside IS in Syria and Iraq; hundreds more are in Afghanistan. Not counting the fighting in those three war-torn countries, nationals of Central Asia have been responsible for nearly 100 deaths in terrorist attacks outside their home region in the past five years. But many important aspects of the phenomenon need more in-depth study.

This research paper attempts to answer four basic sets of questions: (1) Is Central Asia becoming a new source of violent extremism that transcends borders, and possibly continents? (2) If so, why? What causes nationals of Central Asia to take up arms and participate in political violence? (3) As IS has been all but defeated in Iraq and Syria, what will Central Asian extremists who have thrown in their lot with the terrorist group do next? And (4) do jihadists from Central Asia aspire to acquire and use weapons of mass destruction? If so, how significant a threat do they pose and who would be its likeliest targets?

    Video - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

    Vera Mironova on Office Hours

    | Dec. 01, 2017

    Vera Mironova (@vera_mironov), an Associate with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, talks with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) about ISIS’s drug and alcohol problem, her experience embedded in combat zones, and how insurgents shop around for the best job opportunities.

    Audio - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

    Vera Mironova on Office Hours Podcast

    | Dec. 01, 2017

    Vera Mironova (@vera_mironov), an Associate with the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, talks with Aroop Mukharji (@aroopmukharji) about ISIS’s drug and alcohol problem, her experience embedded in combat zones, and how insurgents shop around for the best job opportunities.

    Airstrikes target Islamic State positions on the edge of Mosul's Old City

    AP

    Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

    ISIS' Intelligence Service Refuses to Die

    | Nov. 22, 2017

    "In Iraq, the war of weapons is over, but the war of information is not. First of all, many of the most experienced and dedicated Emni members were able to escape when ISIS fell. Compared to ISIS fighters, they enjoyed relative freedom of movement, so when the Iraqi operation in Mosul started, many agents moved to liberated territories, from which they updated ISIS on the movement of Iraqi forces. Even now, their presence is no secret to local civilians."

    Journal Article - Journal of Conflict Resolution

    International Peacekeeping and Positive Peace: Evidence from Kosovo

    | November 2017

    To what extent can international peacekeeping promote micro-foundations for positive peace after violence? Drawing on macro-level peacekeeping theory, the authors' approach uses novel experimental methods to illustrate how monitoring and enforcement by a neutral third party could conceivably enhance prosocial behavior between rival groups in a tense, postconflict peacekeeping environment.

    demonstrators chant pro-Islamic State group slogans as they carry the group's flags

    AP

    Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

    The Next Islamic State Would Be Deadlier

    | Oct. 04, 2017

    "In the places where governments cannot fulfill their duties to provide for and protect civilians, not only can a relatively well armed group easily take control, the local population, tired of bad government, will not resist a takeover. Often, people even welcome it. In a 2016 survey of post-Islamic State territory in Iraq that I conducted, 30 percent of civilian respondents said security and policing actually improved under the Islamic State, compared with only 5 percent who said that it had become worse. The extremist group was not only strong enough to take the territory, it was also capable of governing it — and in some places, still is."

    Omar al-Shishani

    AP Photo/militant social media account via AP video

    Analysis & Opinions - Foreign Affairs

    The Chechens of Syria

    | Sep. 07, 2017

    "...[D]espite the disparities in military training before arriving in Syria, Chechens in Syria will now leave with significant experience. Right now, the Kadyrovtsy that remain in Chechnya have the upper hand because most of the main opposition has left for Syria. But that could change as the bulk of foreign fighters trickle back home."

    mosul

    AP

    Magazine Article - New Scientist

    Anatomy of Terror: What Makes Normal People Become Extremists?

      Author:
    • Peter Byrne
    | Aug. 16, 2017

    "Mironova trained as a mathematician, game theorist and behavioural economist....she is one of few researchers to venture directly into combat zones to examine the roots of jihadist terror. Her work has been funded variously by the US National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), George Soros's Open Society Foundations, the United Nations and the World Bank."