US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

Lieutenant General (ret) Douglas Lute, former U.S. NATO Ambassador and a Belfer Center Senior Fellow, and Brigadier General (ret) Kevin Ryan, Belfer Center Associate and founder of the U.S.-Russia Elbe Group, traveled to Moscow in late fall to participate in a conference on U.S.-Russia Relations hosted by the Club of Military Leaders at the Russian General Staff Academy. The conference participants discussed the state of relations between the two countries and explored ways forward.

• U.S. experts debate whether russia can be a viable CT partner for America.
• Graham Allison on importance of prevention of nuclear terrorism.
• Russia’s National Guard is mulling drone defense at NPP.
• U.S. Nuclear Posture Review on countering nuclear terrorism.

Of all the annual addresses Vladimir Putin has delivered to Russia’s Federal Assembly since becoming president in 1999, Thursday’s speech was the most militarized. Although Putin began by talking about modernizing the Russian economy and reducing poverty, most of the speech — and accompanying videos — were devoted to guns rather than butter. While the parliamentarians clearly welcomed Putin’s military showcasing by offering frequent applause, the rest of the world felt a distinct Cold War chill.

What are a country’s redlines? Which of them are really red and which are — to quote one German newspaper editor’s opinion of the European Union’s stance on the Ukraine conflict — merely pink?

Just four weeks ago, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s commander, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, told the Associated Press that Tehran was imposing a 1,242-mile range limit on its surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. Although lax (all of Israel’s bases, and most of America’s in the Gulf and Middle East, fall within this range), this limit should be seen as a start. The question now is how much further might the United States and other like-minded countries be able to push Iran to impose tighter controls.

• Elbe Group members participate in Moscow conference.
• U.S. and Russian experts weigh in on North Korea’s nuclear missile program, call for preservation of the nuclear deal with Iran.
• NNSA Reports that some nuclear security cooperation with Russia is continuing.
• Saradzhyan testifies on potential for U.S.-Russian counter-terrorism cooperation.
• Bunn and Roth ponder effects of a nuclear terrorist bomb explosion.

Testimony by Simon Saradzhyan at a hearing entitled “Russia: Counterterrorism Partner or Fanning the Flames,” held by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on Nov. 7, 2017.

As Russia prepares for its annual strategic military exercises, speculation is mounting that the Zapad-2017 war games, set for Thursday through Sept. 20 in western Russia and Belarus, might be a prelude to war. Ukraine’s defense minister cautioned that Zapad could be a ruse to attack any European country “that shares a border with Russia,” while the New York Times proclaimed that the drills near NATO’s borders have raised “fears of aggression.” A CNN contributor wondered, “Could they turn into war?”

• Alexey Arbatov warns that nukes will end up in hands of terrorists sooner or later.
• Belfer Center experts build timeline for Nunn-Lugar in former Soviet Union.
• Graham Allison calls for U.S.-Russian cooperation on counter-proliferation.
• U.S. and Russian experts weigh in on nuclear threats posed by North Korea.
• Hecker and White call for revival of U.S.-Russian lab-to-lab cooperation.

Judging the Trump administration to be incapable of formulating a diplomatic campaign in support of one of its highest foreign policy priorities, John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, published an Iran deal exit strategy in the National Review on Monday. The document is less about why the United States should leave the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and more about how to do so.