Are the U.S. and China Destined for War?

When a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, alarm bells should sound: extreme danger ahead. As the ancient Greek historian Thucydides explained in his history of the Peloponnesian War, “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” 

Today, an irresistible rising China is on course to collide with an immovable America. Identifying clues from history to prevent violent conflict between Washington and Beijing has been the focus of a five-year research project led by Belfer Center Director Graham Allison, culminating in the May 30 publication of his latest book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? 

Allison’s research—the pioneer endeavor of the Belfer Center’s budding Applied History Project—uncovered a deadly pattern. Over the past 500 years, a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power 16 times. In 12 of those cases, the outcome ended in war. The fact that war was averted in four cases demonstrates that the outcome is not foreordained. But avoiding war between the United States and China will require statecraft as subtle as that of the British in dealing with a rising America a century ago, or the “wise men” who crafted a Cold War strategy to meet the Soviet Union’s surge without bombs and bullets.

Allison’s book was not written with current events in mind. But if Hollywood were producing a blockbuster pitting China against the U.S. on the road to war, central casting could not dream of a better lead for Team America than President Trump.

“My goal is not to predict the future but to prevent it,” Allison says, warning that business as usual will lead to history as usual. “My hope is that the argument can impact the minds of thinking Americans and other internationals, alerting them to the extreme danger of these Thucydidean conditions, and rousing them to the level of strategic imagination and courage required to make this the fifth case of no war.

Judging by advance praise, Destined for War is already making an impact. James Winnefeld, former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, calls it the “most important foreign policy book of our time.” Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab says it could “save the lives of millions of people.” Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power called it “a gripping book that decision-makers and citizens alike must read, digest, and act upon.” Members of Congress, policy officials, diplomats, and military generals, meanwhile, are increasingly citing Allison’s big idea of Thucydides’s Trap in their comments on U.S.-China relations.

While emphasizing that war between Washington and Beijing is not inevitable, Allison worries that politicians in both nations do not fully grasp the severity of the structural stress between them. To their credit, Allison says, Presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping at least raised the concept of Thucydides’s Trap at their state summit in 2015. Going forward, Xi, Trump, and their successors must face hard questions about the U.S.-China relationship, including: Is China serious about replacing the U.S. as the dominant power in Asia in the foreseeable future? Could Americans accept becoming No. 2? How will Trump’s vow to ‘Make America Great Again”’impact this epic rivalry? Could a trade conflict or accidental collision in the South China Sea cascade into war?

In Destined for War, Allison explains why Thucydides’s Trap is the best lens for answering these questions—and for understanding the most critical foreign policy issue of our time. Allison plans to talk about his book in cities around the world, beginning with stops in New York, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles, San Francisco, Charlotte, and Boston. 

Copies can be pre-ordered at http://amzn.to/2krhOY6