A Clear Verdict

(Excerpt from the Guardian, February 19, 2008)

The verdict is clear. Pakistan has shown the door to the mullahs and delivered a stern warning to Musharraf. . . . As a result, Musharraf's future looks bleak, while Pakistan gets a fighting chance to puts its house in order.

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The most significant victory of all was that won by the secular and Pashtun nationalist party, the Awami National Party (ANP) in the volatile North-West Frontier Province… [I]n Swat, which was in the eye of the Islamist militancy storm recently, the ANP won comprehensively, establishing that ordinary Pashtuns are not supportive of extremist forces.

One other factor worth taking into account is the success of women candidates in 12 national and provincial constituencies. The major parties fielded a number of women candidates, and most of them won—a healthy trend in a country where in some rural areas women were stopped from voting by their male “guardians.”

Despite all these positive trends, however, Pakistan's problems are far from being over. It is going to be an uphill task to form a stable, focused and accountable government dedicated to the wellbeing of the people. Developing a consensus among coalition parties in the center and then sticking to it will be a challenge in itself. Religious extremism can also raise its ugly head at any time. . . . This early period is the most challenging of all.

The new government will be under tremendous public pressure to bring back the deposed judges, and that could sound a death knell for the Musharraf presidency. For the army, institutional interests, saving prestige, and influence will be more important than rescuing a president who continues to shoot himself in the foot. The west in general—and Britain and the U.S. in particular—must show patience while democratic forces settle —at least as much patience as they showed with military dictators. This is the very least that the people of Pakistan earned in February’s elections.