Iceland's Minister Cites Climate's Impact on International Security

"The interests of the High North, both locally and globally, are a trans-Atlantic issue that can only be dealt with as part of a strong and realistic security policy and maritime strategy on the part of NATO," concluded Icelandic Minister of Justice Björn Bjarnason at an International Security Program–sponsored lecture last fall. While the Cold War's end saw the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iceland, climate change has reconfigured the security, economic, and geopolitical profile of the Arctic with Iceland retaining its geo-strategic importance.

A new northern sea route is opening up, Bjarnason explained, and Arctic oil and natural gas resources are accessible for exploitation. Increasing volumes of oil and natural gas are being transported from Russia and Norway to the U.S. through Icelandic waters. The maritime transport system is vulnerable to terrorists, and a well-coordinated attack could result in the entire system shutting down with profound consequences for U.S. energy security.

Russia, Bjarnason added, has been increasingly asserting its influence in the High North as its economic strength has risen with energy prices. Russian bombers have been flying around Iceland or along the Norwegian coast down to Denmark and the Netherlands — NATO's Cold War frontline. Russian military bases on the Kola Peninsula are being renewed and developed, and the Russian flag was planted in the seabed below the North Pole last August.

“A permanent U.S. maritime presence in the North Atlantic is of vital importance to guarantee NATO's security interests, enforce international law, and influence the international foreign policy process," Bjarnason said, adding that the European Union "has not formulated any maritime strategy for the North Atlantic."

The entire presentation is available at http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/17696/