A New Approach to Resolve Military Aspects of Iran’s Nuclear Program

Despite a great effort over the last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has learned little from Iran that has added to the inspectors’ ability to resolve their concern about Iran’s past and possibly on-going work on nuclear weapons. Recently, the IAEA has also been unable to reach agreement with Iran on how to tackle the remaining military nuclear issues. In a recent appearance in Washington, DC, the IAEA’s Director General Yukiya Amano repeatedly emphasized that the military nuclear issues need to be addressed and solved. It is time for the IAEA to chart a new course before its lack of progress in resolving this issue collides with the effort by the world’s powers and Iran to achieve a nuclear deal by November 24. The IAEA, with the support of the United States, must act quickly.

For years, the inspectors have unsuccessfully asked the Islamic Republic to address the substantial body of evidence that Iran was developing nuclear weapons prior to 2004 and that it may have continued some of that, or related, work afterwards, even up to the present. The November 24 deadline is fast approaching for the major powers and Iran to negotiate a long-term comprehensive agreement capable of ensuring that Iran’s nuclear program will be fully peaceful. Before a deal is concluded, concrete progress is needed on the central issue of whether Iran has worked on nuclear weapons and is maintaining a capability to revive such efforts in the future.

Addressing all of the IAEA’s outstanding concerns about Iran’s past and possibly on-going military nuclear efforts prior to the November deadline appears unlikely. In the interests of moving the process forward towards a deal, the IAEA should divide the resolution of the problem into two phases:

1. The first one would take place in the coming weeks and demonstrate that Iran is seriously addressing the IAEA’s concerns;
2. The second one would occur after signing a comprehensive agreement and would link key sanctions relief to Iran addressing, fully and in a verifiable manner, the IAEA’s outstanding concerns about Iran’s military nuclear program

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