We’ve reached a ‘nuclear framework’ with Iran. So now what?

It appears that 5,000 centrifuges would remain at Iran’s Natanz plant, with stocks of uranium, affirming Iran’s status as a nuclear-threshold state. Albeit the breakout time would be a year, but the concerns of Iran’s neighbors would not disappear. Several countries in the Middle East are building their nuclear infrastructure. Efforts to get commercial suppliers to establish regional uranium-enrichment services as an alternative to domestic efforts will not get much traction under the circumstances likely to play out from the Mediterranean beaches to the Gulf of Aden and Basra. There will not necessarily be a race to a bomb, but countries will be climbing the ladder of nuclear capabilities.

Iran will also continue research and development on more advanced centrifuges, which could further reduce its breakout time. But the underground facility in Fordow will be converted to a nuclear research center without uranium enrichment, which should set some minds at ease. The framework calls for full disclosure of Iran’s current and past nuclear activities. That requires unfettered access by IAEA inspectors to all relevant sites – including military sites, which have played a pivotal role in Iran’s nuclear efforts.

It was difficult for the parties to develop a joint framework. The challenges ahead on the details are not going to get any easier. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

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