When the Frontline is Three Thousand Miles Away

The chancellor's most recent pre-budget report promised to ring-fence spending for frontline public sector workers. But over the winter, spare a thought for the brave men and women of our armed forces. Many of them will be in Afghanistan, more than three thousand miles away, missing their family, and being missed.

As we come out of the Christmas season, nobody can ignore how much of a sacrifice it is to do a difficult job in such difficult conditions. But this year, the forces will have it especially tough. Recent news has indicated that cuts are on the way. If you have ever continued working somewhere in the knowledge that there is to be deep and painful restructuring ahead, you will know what it can do for morale. In the case of our forces, it is bound to make a hard job even harder.

In his Pre-Budget Report, the chancellor decided not to protect defence from future cuts. That is as good as admitting that there will be cuts to Britain's defence spending and capabilities. It is hard not to see this as a sign that Britain's status in the world will be left to decline.

And recent reports which have trickled out of the ministry of defence have shown how serious the situation is. A 'senior military source' was even quoted by the Times as saying "we're pretty well broke".

Channel 4 News reported on speculation that one whole RAF base is likely to be sold. As we do not yet know which, the atmosphere on all fifty-seven RAF bases around Britain must be soured by the knowledge that the politicians at the heart of the government no longer consider the service of one of the bases to be worth the cost. It also reported that one of the bases in Cyprus is to be scaled back.

It reported that these cuts were caused by a £6 billion overspend. That has to be put in context — if true it is a sizable proportion of the cost of the entire deployment to Afghanistan since 2001, which cost £8 billion. The overspend is reportedly on the procurement of new aircraft, submarines and ships, and will also result in cuts to Ministry of Defence internal spending on IT, human resources and administrative functions, and, more controversially, the MOD Police. Whitehall sources have said that because of the government's decision to try to halve the deficit, defence could face total cuts of up to 16 per cent.

All of this must be understood in a context in which, politicians are able to reach senior positions without the experience of having ever negotiated a contract in the private sector. Defence procurement is even harder to manage than other government procurement, as the nature of the market is such that few buyers — governments — buy from few defence firms, which means that competition is not as fierce as in other markets. This is combined with defence inflation which always far exceeds civilian inflation; prices in defence markets have been growing by 7.5 per cent to last year.

The result is particularly underqualified politicians leading particularly difficult spending negotiations. Add in government revenues which have fallen more sharply than anyone would have been able to predict two years ago, and you have a perfect storm.

It is just a shame that defence spending, and the morale of the men and women who rely on it, has to suffer as a result.

Azeem Ibrahim is research scholar at the International Security Program at Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a former reservist in the British Parachute Regiment.