Why Iran Matters

Harvard’s Iran Matters is an online one-stop shop for best analysis and best facts about the core issues of the Iranian nuclear challenge. A panel of experts at the Belfer Center, co-chaired by Graham Allison and Gary Samore, provides regular updates identifying what the panel judges the best analyses for competing answers to core questions.

Israel

“The nuclear deal signed with Iran is good for Israel. It is not perfect, such is the nature of compromise agreements; but unless one seeks a knockout blow, as does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, it is a potentially historic first step toward a final agreement. Netanyahu is not wrong to seek an agreement that puts a complete end to any possibility of an Iranian military nuclear program; indeed, this was the U.S., EU and even UN Security Council position until recent days. The United States and European powers involved in the talks, however, like many independent analysts, have concluded that this objective simply cannot be achieved in practice, desirable as it may be.”

Chuck Freilich, “The Other Iranian Breakthrough”
December 3, 2013

Saudi Arabia

“Saudi Arabia finds itself in a completely changed political environment in the region and beyond, having essentially been left alone to maintain stability in the Arab world and check Iranian influence. Given the pressures of this predicament, the fundamental basis of the new Saudi foreign policy doctrine is about radically altering course from being protected by others to protecting itself and its allies. The Saudis know they need to restructure their foreign policy and national security establishment to increase their capacity to handle themselves internationally on par with the political, economic, and religious significance and influence the kingdom holds.”

Nawaf Obaid, “The Iran deal: a view from Saudi Arabia”
December 3, 2013

Turkey

“In an attempt to overcome its trade isolation and international sanctions, the government of Iran deliberately and strategically expanded its economic relations with Turkey over the last decade and positioned itself as the second leading supplier of natural gas to that country. Bilateral trade relations between the two countries have experienced many ups and downs as a result of geopolitical differences and U.S. pressure on the Turkish government, but until 2011 they enjoyed a general uptrend.”

Nader Habibi, “The Iranian connection in Turkey’s corruption scandal”
January 6, 2014

United States

“Of course, this is just an initial step – most of the difficult negotiating lies ahead.  A huge fraction of the sanctions relief Iran wanted is not in this initial deal, and a major fraction of the restraints on Iran’s program the United States and the Europeans wanted are left for the final deal as well. The tug-of-war between the U.S. and European desire to keep Iran’s path to the bomb as lengthy and detectable as possible and Iran’s desire to avoid a humiliating scale of roll-back of what it has already accomplished could still scuttle a final deal.”

Matthew Bunn, “The Iran deal – a summary and interpretation”
November 27, 2013

“This process serves as a confidence building measure, where Iran as well as the P5+1 will be tested on their undertakings as well as their ability to reach a final accord. The most difficult parts, however, lie ahead: agreement on the scope of uranium enrichment and heavy water program, and Iran’s seriousness in addressing questions and concerns related to its nuclear program’s military dimension, which go well beyond access to one particular building at Parchin.”

Olli Heinonen, “Understanding the Joint Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program”
December 3, 2013

Iran

“For the time being, Rouhani will move cautiously yet adamantly down the path of limited reform. The interim agreement will enable the president to do so, thus reserving the possibility of more significant reforms in the future if a final deal is achieved. The interim agreement is therefore significant not only because of its potential to change Iran’s role in the Middle East but also to instigate domestic reform within the Islamic Republic as well.”

Payam Mohseni,
“The domestic implications of the interim deal for Iran”
December 6, 2013

“Rouhani and his team understand that in order to keep the Iranian people on board…nationalism is their best tool. As the interim deal implemented and the P5+1 and Iran move onto the next stages of negotiations, it is crucial for the West to…appreciate the difficult task Rouhani and his team are facing…Allowing Western hardliners to undermine Rouhani’s efforts would translate into empowering Iranian hardliners, which could ‘kill’…any deal.”

Ariane Tabatabai,
“Iran’s Evolving Nuclear Narrative”
February 7, 2014

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