Energy

The Chinese government consistently regards energy conservation as one of the most effective means to address its energy-related problems, such as energy security and greenhouse-gas emission reduction. Its energy-saving effect has been substantial since the government has implemented a series of policies in recent years. However, there is still debate about whether or not the current energy conservation policies can support the achievement of China's long-term goal of sustainable development.

Melissa Chan and Laura Diaz Anadon of the Energy Research, Development, Demonstration & Deployment (ERD3) Policy Project presented at the 2009 Annual Meeting of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).

Historical patterns of growth across a range of energy technologies are used to explore "scaling". Scaling is used to describe a particular form of growth that is (i) both rapid and substantive, taking into account the overall size of the energy system, and (ii) occurs at multiple levels from the technical unit and/or plant to the industry as a whole (e.g., from a wind turbine or wind farm to total installed wind capacity or manufacturing output). Scaling dynamics are assessed in historical time series data on vehicles, jet aircraft, refineries, and power plants (nuclear, coal, gas, wind). In those cases for which S-shaped growth is clearly evidenced, logistic function parameters are used to compare scaling across different technologies.

The author analyses the implications of economic growth for removing poverty and inequity, in respect of the twin challenges of environmental sustainability and energy security in India.

Holdren presents a detailed summary of the science behind global climate disruption, and offers a look at the technologies that can help mitigate future risk. He then surveys current thinking on the economics of climate disruption and proposes practical steps forward.