Governance

19 Items

Blog Post - Views on the Economy and the World

Biden Avoids Mistake of Insufficient Fiscal Stimulus

| Mar. 29, 2021

It has been a year since the US and the world went into recession.  Because of its origins in the sudden pandemic, it was possible to reliably discern the advent of the recession before it was reflected in any of the standard economic statistics, which is rare.  (I hope it shocks no one to learn that economists can’t normally predict recessions.)

By the end of the second quarter of 2020, US GDP had fallen 11 %. This record plunge took the US economy from a level that is estimated to have been 1.0% above potential output at the end of 2019, to a level 10 % below potential in mid-2020.  Potential output is the level of GDP that is produced when unemployment is at its so-called natural rate, the capital stock is operating at the capacity for which it was designed, buildings have their normal occupancy rates, etc.

National Economic Director Gary Cohn walks from Marine One across the South Lawn to the White House on Aug. 30 (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

Cohn is Getting It All Wrong on Taxes

| Sep. 05, 2017

Given recent controversies, I was interested to read National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn’s answer to a “why are you staying?” question put by Stuart Varney of the Fox Business Network last week. To his credit Cohn did not back away from his reservations about the president’s response to the Charlottesville violence. He said “Look, tax cuts are really important to me. I think it’s a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. We haven’t done tax cuts in 31 years. So, to be a part of an administration that gets something done that hasn’t been done for 31 years is enormously challenging, enormously interesting to me.

House Speaker Paul Ryan discusses tax reform during a visit to Intel in Hillsboro, Ore. on Wednesday, Aug. 23, 2017. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)

AP Photo/Don Ryan

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Tax Reform and Budget Deficits in America

| Aug. 29, 2017

The Republican Party’s leaders in the United States House of Representatives have been hard at work for more than a year designing a major reform of personal and corporate taxes. With an election looming in 2018, the House Republicans are determined to deliver a reform package and send it to the Senate for enactment.

Budget Director Mick Mulvaney speak to the media about President Donald Trump's proposed fiscal 2018 federal budget in the Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 23, 2017. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

Analysis & Opinions - Project Syndicate

Trump's Magic Budget

| May 29, 2017

"U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has now released its budget plans for fiscal year 2018. Among the details provided in the document, entitled America First – A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again, are projections for the expected path of gross federal debt as a percentage of GDP, which is shown to decline from its current level of about 106% to about 80% in 2027. Debt held by the public is expected to mirror this path, shrinking from 77% to 60% over this period....Unfortunately, neither projection is credible."