Governance

1102 Items

(AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

(AP Photo/Lefteris Pitarakis)

Analysis & Opinions - The Washington Post

In Turkey, Imamoglu is a victim. Here’s why he doesn’t talk about it.

| May 22, 2019

On May 6, Turkish opposition figure Ekrem Imamoglu became the latest politician to fall victim to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s authoritarian ambitions. In a move that has been widely characterized as a power grab by Erdogan, Turkey’s Supreme Election Council (YSK) stripped Imamoglu of his newly elected post as mayor of Istanbul after just 17 days in office. The decision came after Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) brought forth claims of electoral irregularities in the appointment of polling station officials. Although the polling workers Erdogan was referring to also oversaw races for district administrators, mayors and municipal councils — races that the AKP and its coalition partners won — the YSK canceled only the vote for the Istanbul mayorship and called for a rerun on June 23.

(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

(AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

Analysis & Opinions - Agence Global

Can we respond to the Bahrain workshop idea with a ‘yes and no’?

| May 21, 2019

BEIRUT — Washington’s formal announcement of its plan to hold an economic workshop in Bahrain in June to kick-start a promised Palestinian-Israeli peace process — “the deal of the century” — brings us all face-to-face with a momentous decision. Do we dance or stay home?

A traditional Iranian bazaar in the city of Kashan

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions - The Hill

Can Iran Weather the Trump Storm?

| May 03, 2019

In the past 10 years, oil exports have averaged about $67 billion in Iran. Last year, they dropped by two-thirds, and they are expected to drop below $30 billion this year.  There are reasons to believe that, with appropriate policies, the country can live with this level of oil exports, albeit at a reduced standard of living, and even do itself some good in the long run by reducing its dependence on oil.

Iran has been there before. In 2012, when President Obama ratcheted up U.S. sanctions against Iran, oil exports dropped by 27.5 percent, and GDP fell by 6.2 percent. In 2015, sanctions and the collapse of oil prices further reduced oil exports to $32 billion, a decade-long low, and GDP declined by 1.6 percent. If Iran’s leadership is to successfully resist U.S. demands, it must do more than find ways to evade sanctions. A lot depends on its ability to adopt a plan that reduces the economy’s dependence on oil, while distributing the burden of restructuring equitably across social groups.

(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

(AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)

Analysis & Opinions - Aljazeera

الانتخابات الإسرائيلية 2019: التفاعلات الداخلية والانعكاسات الخارجية

| Apr. 25, 2019

شكَّلت الانتخابات الإسرائيلية التي أُجريت في 9 أبريل/نيسان 2019، إلى حد ما، استفتاء على حكم نتنياهو كرئيس للوزراء والمستمر منذ العام 2009، حيث لم يضع أي من المرشحين الرئيسيين التسوية مع الفلسطينيين عنصرًا أساسيًّا في حملته الانتخابية. أظهرت نتائج الانتخابات فوزًا واضحًا لقوى اليمين واليمين المتطرف وهو ما سوف يرسخ هيمنتها على المشهد السياسي الإسرائيلي خلال السنوات القادمة. تعالج هذه الورقة تطبيقات نتائج الانتخابات المختلفة على الوضع الإسرائيلي الداخلي، وفرص التسوية السلمية مع الفلسطينيين، والعلاقات العربية-الإسرائيلية في ضوء التنازع الإقليمي مع إيران وحلفائها في المنطقة. تجادل الورقة بأن المجتمع الإسرائيلي يتجه أكثر من أي وقت مضى منذ توقيع اتفاق أوسلو، عام 1993، نحو اليمين وهو ما سيعمل على إذابة فرص إقامة دولة فلسطينية مستقلة مع تجاهل الدول العربية الفاعلة لذلك.

Iranian president Hassan Rouhani

Wikicommons

Analysis & Opinions

The Unimportance Of New Oil Sanctions

| Apr. 25, 2019

For the Islamic Republic, resistance to Washington has become a cultural norm, and it considers independence (esteghlal) as the main achievement of the 1979 revolution.  According to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Iran would have to meet 12 conditions before the United States will renegotiate the nuclear deal and consider removing its sanctions. These conditions, which are nothing short of surrender on Iran’s part, are either set to force Iran out of the nuclear deal and therefore trigger the return of UN sanctions, or they are a thinly veiled call for regime change.

Fans react as they watch the “Greatest Royal Rumble” event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Friday, April 27, 2018. A previous WWE event held in 2014 was for men only, but Friday night’s event included both women and children in attendance. AP Photo/Amr Nabil

AP Photo/Amr Nabil

Paper - Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Profile of a Prince: Promise and Peril in Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030

| April 2019

This report, based on three prolonged trips to the Kingdom over the past year, the most recent in January 2019, will take a deep look at Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who dominates every aspect of foreign and domestic policy, to try to answer what lies behind his Mona Lisa smile. It will also examine the Kingdom’s social progress, its economic stagnation and its growing political repression. Readers will have to evaluate for themselves whether the social progress he has offered Saudis in general—and women in particular—offset his autocratic tactics at home and abroad.

POMEPS Studies

POMEPS Studies

Analysis & Opinions - Project on Middle East Political Science

Poverty, inequality and the structural threat to the Arab region

| March, 2019

External powers looking at the Middle East tend to focus on issues of high politics. That focus may blind them to the local, regional, and global factors which drive the ongoing political and sectarian tensions and armed conflicts across parts of the Arab region. Lurking beneath diplomatic maneuvering is a dangerous pattern of new and deep structural threats that have converged in a cycle of poverty, inequality and vulnerability that seems likely to keep the region mired in stress and conflict for decades to come. These threats exacerbate existing antagonisms and armed clashes across the region, heighten social tensions, and ultimately lead to the fragmentation of both individual countries and the wider Arab region that had enjoyed some minimal commonalities and integrity in the past century.