Potential Additional Cases
The Case File is open for Phase II of the Thucydides’s Trap Project. In this next phase, we are seeking suggestions of additional cases that may illuminate the Thucydidean dynamic. These could include cases of hegemonic challenges in regional competitions or among less-than-major powers (e.g., the rise of South Korea to surpass North Korea in the decades after the Korean War), as well as competitions in a decisive domain (e.g., sea, air, or space).
Below is a list of cases currently under review for Phase II, some of which have been suggested by visitors to the Thucydides's Trap Project website. Inclusion on this list does not indicate a final judgement of a specific case. For the purposes of this inquiry, however, the more cases the better—since additional cases can provide additional insights into the fundamental dynamics of rising vs. ruling powers. Therefore, we encourage reader comments regarding other cases that should be taken under consideration.
Period | Ruling Power | Rising Power | Result | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mid 16th century | Denmark | Sweden | War |
2 | Early 17th century | Spain | Dutch Republic | War |
3 | Mid 17th century | Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth | Russia | War |
4 | Early 18th century | Sweden | Russia | War |
5 | Early 18th century | Great Britain | Russia | No war |
6 | Mid 18th century | Austria | Prussia | War |
7 | Mid-to-late 19th century | United Kingdom | France | No war |
8 | Late 19th century | Spain | United States | War |
9 | Late 19th and early 20th century | United Kingdom | Russia | No war |
10 | Mid-to-late 20th century | Soviet Union | China | No war |
11 | Mid-to-late 20th century | Soviet Union | Japan | No war |
12 | Late 20th century | Iran | Iraq | War |
13 | Late 20th century | North Korea | South Korea | No war |
14 | Late 20th century to present day | Japan | China | No war |